Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2025, 9:11 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 1, 2025, 8:04 am

Agree with all your points above, but still believe they will convert Morejon back to a SP.  This is his walk year and to get the really big bucks, he needs to be a SP and so he will willingly agree to do it.  Still only 27 for the entire 2026 season, Padres may even offer up an extension during arbitration negotiations to keep him in San Diego loaded with contingencies related to his becoming a starter.

He's the longest tenured Padre and Padres have always believed in him even during his younger years when he was frequently injured.  Think there is more than a 50% chance for a multi-year extension and more than a 75% chance for him going back to starting pitching.  A terrific bullpen is great but if your starters can't make it out of the 3rd of 4th inning regularly, they will be burned out by mid-season.  Got to add to our SP with a potential #2 SP in Morejon.

I do see the window of Morejon to SP being open. Preller is a bit in a IF/THEN strategy ... some depends on Morejon and some depends on if (and who) he might be able to sign to boost the SP or finds a better value in spending more on the 9th or 10th hitter.

It is possible that Preller views Hart as a LHRP (he was better in that role) and that could free Morejon to test SP. Not sure about Sears as a LHP option but Matsui and Peralta are back ... so some LHP depth. Plus although RHP, Adam return by opening day would also help with a Morejon move ... good is just good to go with Miller, Estrada, Morgan, and I like Rodriguez and Marinaccio  ... so a still a very strong pen without Morejon.

Preller has the option to go a lot of ways.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 1, 2025, 11:53 am

I saw a clip from MLB Network where one of their analysts claimed that Miller wants to be a starter. If that's the case I think it's an easy call to give him the opportunity.

The idea of converting Morgan is growing on me too. He throws 4 different pitches at least 18% of the time with good results. His splits were solid with the only real blemish being a higher walk rate against lefties. As a position player conversion he should have a lot less wear and tear on his arm than the average guy in his position.

With Morejon being a year away from free agency and with his injury history as a starter I would think he'll be more reluctant to make the move. With another solid year out of the pen he might be able to approach Tanner Scott to Josh Hader territory on the open market. That's a lot to risk by moving back into the rotation. If I'm him I want an extension to make the jump. I also just don't like the idea of taking by far our best lefty out of the pen.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2025, 12:51 pm

I have a worry about any of Miller, Morejon, or Morgan being converted to a SP ... none have logged that many innings in any season (ML or MiL) to match even a partial season as a SP. Even if effective initially, will they wear down before the playoff run or just breakdown? Might think differently if a non-contender or the rest of the staff is elite but that is not the case. 162 games needing innings from  SP and not having much SP (of quality) in reserve is a real issue.

Might (for 2026) try to hold onto an elite pen ... and target SP who are healthy, decent, and will give innings.

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2025, 1:58 am

Given multiple needs and limited payroll ... and if the Padres have not address them all by late ST ... might the Padres try a different spin and deal Adam.

Of course Adam has to be healthy and showcased in ST first BUT if he is and given the ML need for RP he might yield a useful (league minimum cost longer control) piece. Keep in mind that Adam is in his last year and should get around $6-7MM in arbitration and is currently 34. Not likely will be extended or resigned in 2027.

Save his salary and use that for "better" FA signing (high bid for better quality) in a position of need assuming such a FA is still on the market.

RHRP would still have Miller, Estrada, Morgan, Marinaccio, and Rodriguez with Hawkins, Hoeing, and Jacob in reserve. Plus if not taken in Rule 5 ... Pena and Castro. That would be fine.

Would that extra $6-7MM get them another quality FA piece or more likely allow them to sign a better quality player at $14MM vs $8MM? That better for the team vs one year of Adam out of a stacked pen?

Just another scenario to consider as the dominoes fall on adds over the off season.

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2025, 5:29 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2025, 2:50 am

Winter Meeting start next Monday ... that should start generating some trades and FA signings ... hopefully with the Padres making some moves.

I would like to be surprised but for now working under the assumption that they may only be adding about $20MM to payroll (keep it similar to last season) and likely without any long term commitments (given the potential sale). Yet, a pretty clear need to bolster the SP and at least a 9th hitter (maybe a 10th if a platoon is envisioned). That suggest 3-4 adds maybe in the $5-7MM range ... with other bench upgrades near league minimum.

SP is gong to be the priority with at this point Pivetta, Musgrove (with question mark on effectiveness returning from TJ), and Vasquez (bottom rotation type) the front runners. After that a lot of unknowns with Sears, Hart, Waldron ... long shot surprise from a prospect ... or the speculated conversion of a RP to SP. For a 162 game season .. that is a high risk profile just to get quality ML innings let alone quality depth.

A thought ... given Preller's history of going with NPM/KBO arms such as Martinez, Hart, Suarez ... currently projected returning arms (who should be lower end cost) might be appealing ... consider:

1. Cody Ponce (32), RHP ... 3 years in NPB and last season in KBO where he pitched 181 innings (strong stats). Fangraphs has him projected at 148 innings / 3.70 ERA with a 2.8 WAR (think that is high) but still only think he will sign for 2 years / $16MM ($8MM AAV). That innings / ERA combo would do a lot to stabilize the rotation.
2. Anthony Kay (31), LHP ... last two seasons in NPB going 133 and 135 innings (good stats). Projected for 111 innings / 3.81 ERA 1.7 WAR. Projected sign for 1 year / $5MM.
3. Foster Griffin (30), LHP ... 3 years in NPB going 121, 116, and 78 innings (good stats). Projected 102 innings / 3.88 ERA, 1.9 WAR. Projected sign for 1 year / $5MM.

All gambles to be sure but if the Padres signed two ... and the projections hold ... they get two middle of the rotation arms at a low end cost and add SP depth for the season to cover injuries / performance. Would potentially allow them to keep Miller / Morejon in the pen (I am a bit concerned that Adam will not be ready to start the season) and maybe dangle some of the other RP candidates in trades. Plus if adding two only costs $10-13MM, they have $7-10MM to use on that 9th/10th bat for the offense depth.

I can see Sears being optioned (his last one I think), Waldron released (out of options), and Hart to the pen as the long LHRP .. maybe making Peralta or Matsui trade chips purely as a payroll move freeing up a bit more for the new adds. Preller rarely locks in on one target ... especially at this level ... so, to get his price, may just wait out the market to near ST to finalize his roster.

 

Cross off Ponce ... signs for 3 years / $30MM (way more than Fangraphs projected at 2 years / $16MM). Not a good sign for the Padres signing good FA pitchers at a low cost.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 2, 2025, 5:52 pm

I like the move the LAA made today, Manoah as a rebound candidate for $1.95M. Seems like a smart bet to me.

Quote from lafnboy13 on December 2, 2025, 6:47 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 2, 2025, 5:52 pm

I like the move the LAA made today, Manoah as a rebound candidate for $1.95M. Seems like a smart bet to me.

Although the Ponce signing was surprising, numbers wise, this Manoah signing was disappointing because it seems like a very good flyer to take for a starter.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2025, 3:31 am

Continuing with my obsession with adding SP. Some reference points for evaluation potential adds:

1. In the NL last season the AVERAGE ERA of a SP was 4.29 ... arguably that is a #3 SP level (s/b a bit better on a contender though)
2. Also, the average innings per start was just over 5, so relying on the RP and depth becomes critical
3. Only 46 pitchers went 120 innings (just over 20 starts) and only 21 had greater than 30 starts (full season) ... Pivetta one ... Cease also but now gone.

So, that would suggest there will be a need for more than 5 decent SP to cover starts over the full season and/or any adds need to have a clear healthy projection to provide innings (almost can't risk limited money on signing with injury concerns based on history).

So, assuming Pivetta sits at #1, Musgrove rebounds to his pre-TJ sits at #2, and Vasquez lands at #3 with an average ERA ... what faith do they have in Sears and Hart (doubt they have much in Waldron) to be "average" for #4/#5? Who comes in (as at least an average SP) when the need arises. Makes a case for a Morejon or Miller conversion to SP out of a strong pen.

Another consideration is having good call-up SP options working in AAA. Think both Sears and Hart can be optioned ... so some flexibility if they make conversions or sign a ML option(s).

I guess the Padres may gamble on one or more of their SP prospects ... not ready for an opening day role BUT if needed later in the season will have developed enough in AAA/AA to be an effective call-up. Mendez is on the roster but there are a couple of others that might work.

With limited money ... maybe depth of potentially "average" SP is of more value that adding one good SP to begin the season. Gamble that a ... if needed ... a trade deadline move can provide a plus SP.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2025, 9:51 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2025, 5:29 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2025, 2:50 am

Winter Meeting start next Monday ... that should start generating some trades and FA signings ... hopefully with the Padres making some moves.

I would like to be surprised but for now working under the assumption that they may only be adding about $20MM to payroll (keep it similar to last season) and likely without any long term commitments (given the potential sale). Yet, a pretty clear need to bolster the SP and at least a 9th hitter (maybe a 10th if a platoon is envisioned). That suggest 3-4 adds maybe in the $5-7MM range ... with other bench upgrades near league minimum.

SP is gong to be the priority with at this point Pivetta, Musgrove (with question mark on effectiveness returning from TJ), and Vasquez (bottom rotation type) the front runners. After that a lot of unknowns with Sears, Hart, Waldron ... long shot surprise from a prospect ... or the speculated conversion of a RP to SP. For a 162 game season .. that is a high risk profile just to get quality ML innings let alone quality depth.

A thought ... given Preller's history of going with NPM/KBO arms such as Martinez, Hart, Suarez ... currently projected returning arms (who should be lower end cost) might be appealing ... consider:

1. Cody Ponce (32), RHP ... 3 years in NPB and last season in KBO where he pitched 181 innings (strong stats). Fangraphs has him projected at 148 innings / 3.70 ERA with a 2.8 WAR (think that is high) but still only think he will sign for 2 years / $16MM ($8MM AAV). That innings / ERA combo would do a lot to stabilize the rotation.
2. Anthony Kay (31), LHP ... last two seasons in NPB going 133 and 135 innings (good stats). Projected for 111 innings / 3.81 ERA 1.7 WAR. Projected sign for 1 year / $5MM.
3. Foster Griffin (30), LHP ... 3 years in NPB going 121, 116, and 78 innings (good stats). Projected 102 innings / 3.88 ERA, 1.9 WAR. Projected sign for 1 year / $5MM.

All gambles to be sure but if the Padres signed two ... and the projections hold ... they get two middle of the rotation arms at a low end cost and add SP depth for the season to cover injuries / performance. Would potentially allow them to keep Miller / Morejon in the pen (I am a bit concerned that Adam will not be ready to start the season) and maybe dangle some of the other RP candidates in trades. Plus if adding two only costs $10-13MM, they have $7-10MM to use on that 9th/10th bat for the offense depth.

I can see Sears being optioned (his last one I think), Waldron released (out of options), and Hart to the pen as the long LHRP .. maybe making Peralta or Matsui trade chips purely as a payroll move freeing up a bit more for the new adds. Preller rarely locks in on one target ... especially at this level ... so, to get his price, may just wait out the market to near ST to finalize his roster.

 

Cross off Ponce ... signs for 3 years / $30MM (way more than Fangraphs projected at 2 years / $16MM). Not a good sign for the Padres signing good FA pitchers at a low cost.

Cross of Kay ... signs for 2 years / $12MM (more than double Fangraphs projection of 1 year / $5MM).