Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2025, 11:11 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2025, 9:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2025, 9:51 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2025, 5:29 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2025, 2:50 am

Winter Meeting start next Monday ... that should start generating some trades and FA signings ... hopefully with the Padres making some moves.

I would like to be surprised but for now working under the assumption that they may only be adding about $20MM to payroll (keep it similar to last season) and likely without any long term commitments (given the potential sale). Yet, a pretty clear need to bolster the SP and at least a 9th hitter (maybe a 10th if a platoon is envisioned). That suggest 3-4 adds maybe in the $5-7MM range ... with other bench upgrades near league minimum.

SP is gong to be the priority with at this point Pivetta, Musgrove (with question mark on effectiveness returning from TJ), and Vasquez (bottom rotation type) the front runners. After that a lot of unknowns with Sears, Hart, Waldron ... long shot surprise from a prospect ... or the speculated conversion of a RP to SP. For a 162 game season .. that is a high risk profile just to get quality ML innings let alone quality depth.

A thought ... given Preller's history of going with NPM/KBO arms such as Martinez, Hart, Suarez ... currently projected returning arms (who should be lower end cost) might be appealing ... consider:

1. Cody Ponce (32), RHP ... 3 years in NPB and last season in KBO where he pitched 181 innings (strong stats). Fangraphs has him projected at 148 innings / 3.70 ERA with a 2.8 WAR (think that is high) but still only think he will sign for 2 years / $16MM ($8MM AAV). That innings / ERA combo would do a lot to stabilize the rotation.
2. Anthony Kay (31), LHP ... last two seasons in NPB going 133 and 135 innings (good stats). Projected for 111 innings / 3.81 ERA 1.7 WAR. Projected sign for 1 year / $5MM.
3. Foster Griffin (30), LHP ... 3 years in NPB going 121, 116, and 78 innings (good stats). Projected 102 innings / 3.88 ERA, 1.9 WAR. Projected sign for 1 year / $5MM.

All gambles to be sure but if the Padres signed two ... and the projections hold ... they get two middle of the rotation arms at a low end cost and add SP depth for the season to cover injuries / performance. Would potentially allow them to keep Miller / Morejon in the pen (I am a bit concerned that Adam will not be ready to start the season) and maybe dangle some of the other RP candidates in trades. Plus if adding two only costs $10-13MM, they have $7-10MM to use on that 9th/10th bat for the offense depth.

I can see Sears being optioned (his last one I think), Waldron released (out of options), and Hart to the pen as the long LHRP .. maybe making Peralta or Matsui trade chips purely as a payroll move freeing up a bit more for the new adds. Preller rarely locks in on one target ... especially at this level ... so, to get his price, may just wait out the market to near ST to finalize his roster.

 

Cross off Ponce ... signs for 3 years / $30MM (way more than Fangraphs projected at 2 years / $16MM). Not a good sign for the Padres signing good FA pitchers at a low cost.

Cross of Kay ... signs for 2 years / $12MM (more than double Fangraphs projection of 1 year / $5MM).

Makes the deal for Manoah look even better now.

If I recall right, he has not pitched in 1 1/2 years after TJ surgery. So some risk of health, stamina considering his past health history. However, the price probably was worth the gamble.

Not sure on the Preller strategy with SP but beginning to look more like a Miller / Morejon conversion is in play.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2025, 1:26 pm

The Padres announced that they have signed right-hander Ty Adcock to a one-year deal for the 2026 season. The Friars have multiple 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

28 year old RHRP with very limited ML experience. I guess bullpen insurance if Miller is converted to SP and some injuries pop up.

No minor league options remaining (neither does Marinaccio nor does Waldron) so likely some additional roster openings at the end of ST since doubt all three make opening day. Given his limited history ... likely a signing near league minimum.

*** Adcock has exhausted his three option years but the Padres could be in position to apply for a fourth. A team can apply for a fourth option when a player has played fewer than five full seasons. He has a lot of injury time in the minors so maybe.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 4, 2025, 5:04 pm

Adcock sounds like a Sean Reynolds replacement. Bullpen depth with some upside.

Quote from sportwarrior on December 5, 2025, 12:48 pm

A wild prediction from Jim Bowden at The Athletic:

The Padres acquire starting pitchers Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz from the Rays for catcher Ethan Salas and right-handed pitchers Miguel Mendez, Humberto Cruz and Bradgley Rodriguez

With the status of Yu Darvish up in the air and Michael King testing free agency, the Padres need to rebuild their rotation quickly. Rasmussen and Baz give them two arms to slot in right away, while the Rays get the high-upside catcher Salas, as well as young pitching talent to develop.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6859043/2025/12/05/mlb-winter-meetings-wish-list-kyle-tucker-tarik-skubal-trades-signings-awards/

Rasmussen has a team option on the books for 27 and Baz is a free agent after the 2028 season. All in all I'd make that trade given our current needs and window. The Rays? Doubt it.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 5, 2025, 2:15 pm

Bowden has some of the worst predictions by anyone on The Athletic.  Not going to happen.  More of a chance that they move Miller and/or Morejon to the rotation and re-sign Suarez as the closer.  Can't get a top of the line SP for around 12M but can get a dependable closer in Suarez.  Something 14.5M per year on a two year contract with a club option for a 3rd year.  Let's see what happens.

Other shoe that could drop is that King is not getting either the money or the length or contract (or both) that he is seeking.  He could return to SD for around that 22M he would have received from the Qualifying Offer to show that he is healthy and worthy of the really big bucks for an extended period.

Could really be an interesting couple of weeks.  Hold onto your sombreros.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2025, 7:29 pm

I would not rule out King if he is not getting suitable offers. He is comfortable with SD and Niebla, so a 2-3 year deal with opt outs might give him security yet the chance to go FA again if he has a big season. Just don't know what the Padres think of his projected health profile.

May have to use the bulk of available money even in that kind of deal but Padres could gamble that adding King and converting Miller or Morejon will give them that deep SP rotation and still leave them with a dominate bullpen ... pitching set.

Have 8 of the 9 offensive slots and could gamble on low cost FA to fill out the offense ... maybe the next Solano, Iglesias, Sheets, etc off the FA market. Maybe still can get upgrades trading a Matsui or a RP.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2025, 7:42 pm

Was considering a bold move of converting BOTH Miller and Morejon to SP (saving a ton by not signing a legit SP) ... and use the money in adding to the offense ... gamble on the pen to still be strong with Adam, Estrada, Morgan, Rodrigez, Marinaccio  from the right side and Hart, Sears, Peralta, Matsui sort out maybe three from the left side. Preller does have the history of getting RP out of the wilderness.

The "potential" of a Pivetta, Musgrove, Vasquez, Miller, Morejon starting 5 is intriguing.

That approach could keep them well within the budget ... maintain a very strong pitching staff ... create a more potent offense. COULD is the operative work here.

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 6, 2025, 7:44 pm

Read on CBS that Castellanos is willing to move from the OF to 1B and that PHI is willing to buy down the contract to move him.

If PHI was able to include enough money, would Castellanos be a good DH/1B platoon with Sheets?

Quote from fenn68 on December 7, 2025, 1:55 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 6, 2025, 7:44 pm

Read on CBS that Castellanos is willing to move from the OF to 1B and that PHI is willing to buy down the contract to move him.

If PHI was able to include enough money, would Castellanos be a good DH/1B platoon with Sheets?

At the right price he would be an interesting add ... although over the last 2 seasons he is just an "average" offensive player who hits around 20 HR that still would be a good upgrade over ? for the 9th hitter.

Price is the key BUT most speculation is that if PHIL cannot find a trade partner they will release him ... eat his entire salary then and he could be signed for league minimum. That may be in/near ST unless the PHILS need a roster spot. Ideally for Preller would to wait until the release and a try to sign him then ... if he can convince Castellanos to sign. That might even be the gamble if Preller focus the off-season money on SP and "low end" offense upgrades.

However, if the Padres want him ... and don't want to gamble ... at some point I could see a trade at the point PHIL has exhausted their attempts to trade him elsewhere. If the PHILs got anything it would better than the cost of a release.

PHILs always seem to need RP ... Padres have RP (quite a few who are decent) ... so maybe some like Marinaccio (out of options) plus a PTNL of little consequence ... or maybe PHIL would take a Matsui and just eat the salary differential? Moving Matsui saves money for a few years to come ... a future benefit for SD. Castellanos is a FA after 2026.

So, either way, if SD could add Castellanos at league minimum (net) ... probably better than what they could land in the FA market anywhere near that price and he does fit the Padres need of 1B/DH. Side note: he over the recent years has be a healthy every game player (still only 33ish) ... so adding him for 1B would add to a line-up that is pretty set with players who post every game thus reducing the need for spending on a strong 10th bat.

Unless there is something about Castellanos I am missing ... seems like a good fit for one year if the price is at or near minimum salary.