Quote from Randy Manese on November 6, 2025, 4:02 pm

Imanaga would be a great get, however, his market value is judged by SPOTRAC to be greater than either Cease or King at approximately 30M so don't see that happening.  If both Cease and King decline their QO's, look for the Padres to seek out pitchers in the 10-12M range or below with maybe a creative contract like Pivetta had this year.  Also, Preller might gamble on arms coming back in their second year after TJ surgery like Dustin May or Jordan Montgomery; would have to be on a "prove me you can still pitch effectively level" kind of contract since they can't afford to gamble too much on bringing in suspect arms.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 7, 2025, 5:56 am

Free agent SP's I'd be OK with based on cost/age etc.

Littell-Soroka-May-Woodruff-Civale-Giolito-Eflin

Many with injury issues that if they stay healthy could still be really good for the cost.

Sign King first....then try for 1-2 of these guys.

King-Pivetta-Musgrove-Littell-Vasquez

I don't want us converting Miller this year....need him to close out games for one more season IMO.

Morejon?

Maybe

 

 

Quote from Randy Manese on November 7, 2025, 7:56 am

Morejon had a truly incredible year in relief and is going to have a hard time repeating that level of sustained excellence.  Since this is his walk year, he may want to try to establish higher open market value by converting to a SP with RP always the fallback position.  He showed he can go two innings this year but can he go five+?  Before 2024, his career was injury-riddled as basically a SP but these last two years he has shown stamina and durability.  Still only 27 years old for the entire 2026 season, this may be the year he gives it a try and has some success - the bar is fairly low to make it successfully into the rotation and his salary is likely not to exceed 4.0M this year.  His successful conversion will be very important to the Padres chances of making it to the playoffs in 2026.

Besides Peralta and Matsui in the bullpen (Omar Cruz also is a consideration) , we do have several other candidates in the minors who could fill the LH RP role but none, however, seem high leverage types thus far.  Further, I thought Peralta was much better in higher leverage situations at the end of the 2025 season (borne out by his Late & Close WHIP being better than his RISP WHIP the last two years) and Matsui, of course, was previously a solid closer in Japan so he also has higher leverage history.  Having a manager who was also a RP might help both of them.  Preller also likely will be looking at available RPs on the FA market and internationally, which might include bringing back Kyle Hart.

Of our minor league relief candidates, Harry Gustin and Ryan Och pitched well, but you could also look at Jackson Wolf, Jagger Haynes, Luis Gutierrez, Miguel Cienfuegos or even Fernando Sanchez as possibilities.  Remember, sometimes all it takes is for a coaching staff to do a little tweak or two with a pitcher's repertoire/delivery to get amazing results - percentages are likely low but we can hope it happens for us!

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 7, 2025, 8:19 am

AJ hasn't been one to give out big contracts to starters in free agency. He's been more fond of value plays and creative contracts with guys like Lugo, Wacha, Martinez and Pivetta. Even the 2 big extensions he's given out to Darvish and Musgrove arguably fit the same criteria. Musgrove was seen as taking a bit of a hometown discount and Darvish was a bet on a guy they thought would age better that was designed to lower his tax number.

I think AJ will probably be content to wait out the market and look for late value plays again. I wouldn't be surprised if that ends up coming in the form of a guy that is looking to return from an overseas stint. There are a handful that seem to be getting some buzz and that seems to be a market AJ likes to tap.

I do also think we see someone converted out of the pen. The UT mentioned Estrada as a candidate in addition to Miller and Morejon. I think Miller makes the most sense. Your lefty options out of the pen look a lot weaker if you convert Morejon. If I were him I would also want a new contract that rewards me for success as a starter to make the switch. With his injury history I would think he would be reluctant to do it in his walk year without some insurance built in.

On the position player side of things I think AJ will be more willing to spend on a big bat. I've heard that the decision makers love Okamoto. I think they might look at a few guys from the KBO as value bench plays too.

I also think that despite the endless reports about our depleted farm system you can never rule out a trade with AJ. Fermin could make Salas expendable and AJ has never been afraid to trade away recent draft picks. I think there's still enough ammunition there to get a deal or 2 made.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 7, 2025, 9:21 am

You won't find too many teams with 3 LHPs in the bullpen nor will you find teams with two of their top RH RP's (Adam and Estrada) having better stats against LH batters than RH batters (based on batters' against WHIP).  So, I would be comfortable with auditioning Morejon as a SP until he shows by fatigue or ineffectiveness in ST or even early in the 2026 season that he can't handle that role.  What he has going for him is a low Pitches/Per Plate Appearance count of about 3.75, which is what Musgrove and Darvish had in their heyday.  Morejon also gives up a low percentage of HRs as well as a low number of walks, the latter goes hand in hand with the pitch count and, if healthy, would seem he could reach 5 IP or more on a regular basis.

Miller's track record as a SP is longer and he's stayed healthy for the most part despite cranking up the ball at over 102 mph on a regular basis.  His numbers aren't as good as Morejon's, however, there is more history to them to make them more reliable.  You could project him to be as effective as Musgrove was earlier in his Padres career.  To replace Miller as the potential closer, you have Estrada or Adam or both.  Adam likely not ready to start the 2026 season but should be okay before the end of April, however, he is in his walk year.  For that reason, prefer to see Estrada as the closer with higher leverage RH RP opportunities going to Morgan and Rodriguez.

Bottom line is that I'd stretch out both over the winter as SPs and see what happens when ST begins.  In the interim, we'll have a good idea how the pitching staff looks although Preller is known for his last minute near end of ST deals to bring pitchers on board.  If he does does make a trade, I hope he doesn't include Schoolcraft or Mendez.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 7, 2025, 9:56 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 7, 2025, 8:19 am

AJ hasn't been one to give out big contracts to starters in free agency. He's been more fond of value plays and creative contracts with guys like Lugo, Wacha, Martinez and Pivetta. Even the 2 big extensions he's given out to Darvish and Musgrove arguably fit the same criteria. Musgrove was seen as taking a bit of a hometown discount and Darvish was a bet on a guy they thought would age better that was designed to lower his tax number.

I think AJ will probably be content to wait out the market and look for late value plays again. I wouldn't be surprised if that ends up coming in the form of a guy that is looking to return from an overseas stint. There are a handful that seem to be getting some buzz and that seems to be a market AJ likes to tap.

I do also think we see someone converted out of the pen. The UT mentioned Estrada as a candidate in addition to Miller and Morejon. I think Miller makes the most sense. Your lefty options out of the pen look a lot weaker if you convert Morejon. If I were him I would also want a new contract that rewards me for success as a starter to make the switch. With his injury history I would think he would be reluctant to do it in his walk year without some insurance built in.

On the position player side of things I think AJ will be more willing to spend on a big bat. I've heard that the decision makers love Okamoto. I think they might look at a few guys from the KBO as value bench plays too.

I also think that despite the endless reports about our depleted farm system you can never rule out a trade with AJ. Fermin could make Salas expendable and AJ has never been afraid to trade away recent draft picks. I think there's still enough ammunition there to get a deal or 2 made.

That's why I didn't include any of the big name Starters.

My list are all buy low/injury guys for the most part.

Littell and Eflin are the only guys that may cost more than AJ is willing to pay.

Hopefully we start with King and go from there

 

 

Quote from LynchMob on November 7, 2025, 1:25 pm

Keith Law, ranking and evaluating the free agents for The Athletic:

21

Luis Arraez

Evaluation

One of the most overrated players of the century, Arraez led the National League in batting average for three straight years, but it’s an empty sort of batting average as he doesn’t walk or produce many extra bases. He hit just .292/.327/.392 in 2025, and his walk rates the last two years are the worst of his career. He’s never had good batted-ball data, with Barrel rates among the worst in baseball for much of his career, but last year everything took a turn for the worse, with the lowest Barrel rate and average exit velocity he’s ever posted. He had just seven Barrels all season in 618 balls hit into play, putting him ahead of only Chandler Simpson, Xavier Edwards and Nick Allen, none of whom slugged over .353. Arraez also lacks a position, as he’s a below-average defender at first and hasn’t been able to play anywhere else. His value depends on him hitting for a high average on balls in play, which in turn means a high batting average because his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in baseball, less than half that of the player with the second-lowest strikeout rate (Jacob Wilson, a similar hitter in many ways). If Arraez’s 2025 downturn was fluky, he could turn around and hit .315 this year and be someone’s regular at DH. He showed the downside risk in 2025, however, when his production was worth less than 1 WAR because the batting average is all he has.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 7, 2025, 1:44 pm

So how do we afford King and Murakami and one of the SP on my list?

We can't....can we?

Is it a foregone conclusion Murakami is a dodger?

 

Quote from WindsorUK on November 7, 2025, 2:06 pm

Quote from LynchMob on November 7, 2025, 1:25 pm

Keith Law, ranking and evaluating the free agents for The Athletic:

21

Luis Arraez

Evaluation

One of the most overrated players of the century, Arraez led the National League in batting average for three straight years, but it’s an empty sort of batting average as he doesn’t walk or produce many extra bases. He hit just .292/.327/.392 in 2025, and his walk rates the last two years are the worst of his career. He’s never had good batted-ball data, with Barrel rates among the worst in baseball for much of his career, but last year everything took a turn for the worse, with the lowest Barrel rate and average exit velocity he’s ever posted. He had just seven Barrels all season in 618 balls hit into play, putting him ahead of only Chandler Simpson, Xavier Edwards and Nick Allen, none of whom slugged over .353. Arraez also lacks a position, as he’s a below-average defender at first and hasn’t been able to play anywhere else. His value depends on him hitting for a high average on balls in play, which in turn means a high batting average because his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in baseball, less than half that of the player with the second-lowest strikeout rate (Jacob Wilson, a similar hitter in many ways). If Arraez’s 2025 downturn was fluky, he could turn around and hit .315 this year and be someone’s regular at DH. He showed the downside risk in 2025, however, when his production was worth less than 1 WAR because the batting average is all he has.

Translated: Padres should have tried to trade him at the deadline😂

I'm sure someone will find a place for him, both offensively and defensively. As long as it's not us.

Good luck Luis.