Quote from Randy Manese on December 16, 2024, 10:02 pm

Looks like Orioles chose signing Sugano over acquiring Cease.  If Sugano would have waited longer, might have been on the Padres' radar but at 13M apparently Sugano felt that was about as good as it was going to get and Padres were not in position to be competitive at that price.  Padres need to move salary first so expect something to happen trade-wise before the end of the year - don't expect anyone to bite on Bogaerts but there will be more interest in Padres players once some of the more higher priced free agents are off the board.

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2024, 3:06 am

Would not rule out BALT in a Cease trade even after signing Sugano … they have room to upgrade their starting five … but likely the price they would pay now is lower than Preller may want (at this time).

There are a lot of moving parts for Preller before making a trade  … along with his natural tendency to pull the trigger late when other teams have few remaining options …  he may consider:

1. The real payroll target for 2025 (we are just guessing at this point)

2. Sasaki signing … yes and “easier” to consider dealing Cease vs no making it harder if Preller wants to contend in 2025

3. Where/when does Burnes sign … the trade partners expand with motivated teams if they lost out on Burnes

4. What are the “real” offers … we can speculate biased on our bias (as can the media) … but reality may be (at this time) the offers don’t meet Preller’s price tag … so wait or maybe even don’t sell just to move the salary.

5. Are there alternative trades that will solve the payroll concerns while not hurting the roster as much. More “useful” for 2025 returns vs pure prospects?

If Preller focused on dealing Suarez, W. Peralta, and Arraez they could clear about $28-29MM (CASH) … internally can cover the loss of Suarez, Peralta and likely would sign multiple hitters in the $2-3MM per range (like Solano, D. Peralta) to compliment the strong offensive core. Net for the 26 man roster they could actually be “better” for 2025.

If the right trade is not there … clearly a starting staff of Sasaki, Cease, King, and Darvish would be one of the best top 4 in the league and could “cover” maybe a little less offense all while controlling the payroll. Alternative strategies depending on how factors outside of Preller’s control start to fall.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2024, 3:55 am

Some reports suggest that Preller is still optimistic about re-signing Profar despite the projections he will get around 3 years / $42MM year.

Preller may be reading the market and sees Profar getting a lot less as happened in his last FA when he signed with COLO.

Given everything we hear … Profar wants to return and Preller wants him to return. So a creative contact to control 2025 CASH with a back loaded multi-year deal would work … maybe still dependent on Profar evaluating his full FA market and the Padres clearing some payroll space.

Side note: IF the Padres shed some CASH payroll in the deals they will also reduce the CBT hit to under the first penalty threshold (also apparently an objective) … so CASH in 2025 becomes the key (2026 CASH is not now a concern). Think I have this right but IF a deal has a low CASH 2025 and PLAYER OPTIONS for much higher following years the CBT is only hit with the lower 2025 since the following years are not controlled by the CLUB.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 17, 2024, 5:24 am

Makes you wonder how many deals are done....waiting to be signed....right after Jan 15th.

 

 

Quote from ultratvfan on December 17, 2024, 4:45 pm

Cubs trade OF/1B Cody Bellinger and cash considerations to the Yankees for RHP Cody Poteet.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-yankees-trade

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2024, 5:21 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on December 17, 2024, 4:45 pm

Cubs trade OF/1B Cody Bellinger and cash considerations to the Yankees for RHP Cody Poteet.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-yankees-trade

Dominoes … trading for Bellinger (CF) likely takes the NYY out of the hunt for a FA OF … laving the market thinner for the FA OF (lowering their prices?) … could at the end this help the Padres landing Profar at a lower price point?

Also, this makes  the NYY better … does that put pressure on BALT, BOST, and TOR to spend more to chase the NYY … pitching? Cease?.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 18, 2024, 4:53 am

After reading a blurb on MLBTR, I think that we can add NYM to a possible spot for Cease as well. Last season when MIL traded Burns to BAL, MIL received from BAL #6 DL Hall, and #7 Joey Ortiz ranked prospects according to MLB.com both who were ML ready, and a competitive round A pick.

With that in mind, who would we want from either BAL, BOS, or NYM? And instead of a competitive round pick, could Preller not get international pool money, which then could be used to sweeten the pot able to be given to Sasaki?

BAL options could be Chayce McDermott (RHSP) and Dylan Beavers (LHH OFer) and pool cash.

BOS options could be Wilyer Abreu (LHH OFer) and Luis Perales (RHSP) and pool cash.

NYM options could be Drew Gilbert (LHH OFer) and Blade Tidwell (RHSP) and pool cash.

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2024, 6:21 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 18, 2024, 4:53 am

After reading a blurb on MLBTR, I think that we can add NYM to a possible spot for Cease as well. Last season when MIL traded Burns to BAL, MIL received from BAL #6 DL Hall, and #7 Joey Ortiz ranked prospects according to MLB.com both who were ML ready, and a competitive round A pick.

With that in mind, who would we want from either BAL, BOS, or NYM? And instead of a competitive round pick, could Preller not get international pool money, which then could be used to sweeten the pot able to be given to Sasaki?

BAL options could be Chayce McDermott (RHSP) and Dylan Beavers (LHH OFer) and pool cash.

BOS options could be Wilyer Abreu (LHH OFer) and Luis Perales (RHSP) and pool cash.

NYM options could be Drew Gilbert (LHH OFer) and Blade Tidwell (RHSP) and pool cash.

I can see the NYM in play for a package around Cease ... only 1 year but (in Cohen's mind) cheap at $13MM. With Lindor locked in at SS ... if I were Preller ... would try to construct a package around rookie SS Acuna (made a strong 2024 debut and was a top 100 prospect). Add Acuna and Bogaerts / Cronenworth remain at 2B/1B and solidifies the INF until (if) DeVries arrives. If Acuna is a no go from the Mets perspective ... would want Jett Williams (a Top 100 prospect SS in AAA) who may be able to step up in 2025. Doubt they would give anyone who might benefit them in 2025 so not expecting any good ML pitching in return. If you go down their prospects a candidate may be an A ball OF ... Benge (also top 100 but being so far away probably attainable).

Baltimore probably leads an offer with OF Kjerstand (LHH was a top 100 type who can hit / OBP type ... so-so power). Might fit the Padres current profile for offense. He is somewhat blocked in BALT and BALT has other OF in the queue. Padres will need (and get more) ... BALT does have a pretty deep system and pretty young ML roster.

More of a question on who BOST might be willing to deal ... but Abreu would be a great get.

Once Burnes is off the board (and maybe Flaherty) ... along with the signing of Sasaki ... the Cease rumors should heat up. At about $13MM for just 1 year ... depending on other moves and the real payroll target ... not sure Preller will have to move Cease if the players in return are not "compelling". Could see deals of Arraez, Suarez, and Peralta clearing about $28MM and that may be enough to meet the payroll target (just don't know).

Guessing Preller really holds tough on any Cease deal knowing that the demand is high and supply is low for top of the rotation pitchers and likely knows someone will deal for him all the way into the start of the season so a lot of time to max return and still achieve payroll objectives.

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2024, 6:26 am

Might we see a flurry of moves before Christmas / New Year (not necessarily by the Padres) ... players (and their families) and teams would often like to enter the new year with certainty plus for players (normally he more costly players) the may be a tax advantage if a signing bonus is booked in 2024 vs 2025 with the 2025 salary.