Quote from fenn68 on March 24, 2024, 11:58 am

Quote from sportwarrior on March 24, 2024, 11:19 am

A piece on the Mariners had a semi-noteworthy bit. Taylor Trammell is out of options and won't be making the Mariners out of ST. Would it make sense to take a flier on him given his position and LH bat? Maybe let Pauley marinate a bit more in the minors? Dude had a solid spring (.286/.412/.464).

I don't think it will (or even should) happen, but still thought I'd queue it up for conversation.

Blast from the past. When the Padres traded for him he was billed as a budding super star … never even came close (now 26). He is another example of a great athlete who the scouts / folks who do rankings get over excited about with the phase a 5 Tool Talent with the potential of a super star IF HE CAN ONLY LEARN TO HIT. Usually they don’t.

Over 300 AB in the ML and well south of a .200 BA .. and frankly did not hit in the upper minors.

A pass on claiming him or even trying to sign him to a minors deal. Padres probably have their projection of Marsee right now higher than Trammell. Plus IF they retain Locastro in EP … he would be ahead of Trammell.

Expect Pauley to be optioned but probably for a more compelling pick-up as a FA / waiver claim. Maybe Pham or Belt still on the board.

Quote from fenn68 on March 24, 2024, 12:01 pm

The final roster should be set (announced) by early Thursday … so a few more days of maneuvering Preller for that last position player slot (still a lot depends on Machado) and the final sort of pitching. Hopefully no injuries in the two remaining ST games to cause a chance of course.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 24, 2024, 12:25 pm

Surprised that Preller's comment about Sasaki hasn't draw more attention.  When the Padres were going after Salas and DeVries it was openly discussed by the media and other sources that the Padres pretty much had a lock on them but I don't believe it was ever mentioned by Padres officials (maybe because they couldn't?) until the actual signing.  I'm thinking Preller would not have made the comment if he didn't believe we had an inside track of signing Sasaki after his 2024 season in Japan, i.e, January 15, 2025.   He'll just turn 23 on 3 November.

Stay healthy Roki - we sure want to see you in a Padres uni in 2025!

Quote from fenn68 on March 24, 2024, 12:52 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on March 24, 2024, 12:25 pm

Surprised that Preller's comment about Sasaki hasn't draw more attention.  When the Padres were going after Salas and DeVries it was openly discussed by the media and other sources that the Padres pretty much had a lock on them but I don't believe it was ever mentioned by Padres officials (maybe because they couldn't?) until the actual signing.  I'm thinking Preller would not have made the comment if he didn't believe we had an inside track of signing Sasaki after his 2024 season in Japan, i.e, January 15, 2025.   He'll just turn 23 on 3 November.

Stay healthy Roki - we sure want to see you in a Padres uni in 2025!

Guessing that the rules are different when amateurs are being discussed (US or international) vs a professional in Japan who (seems to be a consensus FA with the OKof his club).

Does make me feel encouraged that Sasaki is a good probability.

Quote from fenn68 on March 24, 2024, 1:22 pm

If the Padres sign Sasaki next January … as with Ohtani’s initial signing … he will get the max out of the international signing bonus pool from the Padres but then fall under 6 control years starting for CBT purposes at league minimum … that would be a major plus for the Padres as they try to navigate the CBT with the current big contracts.

Padres will be very tight on CBT for 2024 and 2025 before some room post Hosmer, Cease, and King. Kim becomes the question as he is a FA after 2024 … extend him and everything gets tighter … let him walk and some more flexibility.  (Merrill back to SS in 2025 or Bogaerts back to SS?)

——————-

Given MILW early extends Chourio with no ML time for $82MM/8 years ($10.250 AAV) and COLO just extended Tovar with less than one full year of service for 7 years plus a club option year that could hit $84MM … and that “early” extension commitment to projected major stars is becoming a league strategy … might the Padres choose to do the same for Merrill getting a couple of extra control years and “stablize” the AAV around $10MM?

If so, in the short run the higher AAV for Merrill likely bump Kim (whose new deal would be double that) out if wanting to stay under the CBT.

Love Kim but on a extension Kim will be early/mid-30s as the contract progresses and the Padres already have made “questionable” deals with Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, and Suarez that will have them “older” … can the Padres really believe that some these players will not start to decline over the next four years, and so worry about adding another to that mix.

So, extending Merrill / not Kim … add 8 years of controllable youth and at club friendly price … frees up CBT space for other strategic adds going forward … just might be the strategic move. Still a role of the dice on the ceiling for Merrill (TBD) and the unknown on the timing (if any) of the decline of Kim (TBD).

Given the CBT games … going the Merrill route just adds to the chance of doing the same for Salas in a year or two. Note that I would only do this for star potential position players (maybe a less than star position player but a a much lower AAV) but would avoid pitchers knowing their fragility. Chance the AAV to the combined Merrill / Salas would not be much higher than Kim’s.

 

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 24, 2024, 10:23 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on March 24, 2024, 11:19 am

A piece on the Mariners had a semi-noteworthy bit. Taylor Trammell is out of options and won't be making the Mariners out of ST. Would it make sense to take a flier on him given his position and LH bat? Maybe let Pauley marinate a bit more in the minors? Dude had a solid spring (.286/.412/.464).

I don't think it will (or even should) happen, but still thought I'd queue it up for conversation.

I've been wondering if AJ might make a minor move to try to bring in an outfielder with some upside as teams finalize their rosters. Trammell would fit the mold. I was thinking about Kyle Stowers. He never really got much of a shot at the big league level. Maybe they can work something out with the Orioles to bring the El Cajon kid home where there might be more opportunity. There were rumors that we were talking to the Red Sox and Brewers earlier in the off-season. With Rafaela and Chourio making their respective rosters both teams have crowded outfields. Could we see those talks get revisited? All the recent chatter has been about Pham, but with him still unsigned I'm curious to see if AJ has something else up his sleeve.

Quote from fenn68 on March 25, 2024, 5:53 pm

In the Padre notes today it was reported that Machado “resumed” throwing … apparently they backed off his throwing work a few weeks ago so he can focus on his hitting. Now they say they will re-evaluate his return to 3B in a couple of weeks. Not sure if that just means establish a better timeline.

So, it appears Machado will fill the DH role for maybe a month … leaving Wade (maybe platooning with Rosario) at 3B. Have to note that Wade has all the 3B starts in Korea and in this exhibition game vs RHP (not Pauley).

Would that suggest that Pauley a rookie without a starting role gets optioned in favor of an OF? Might also suggest that if they do make an add it will not a DH type.

Padres have an open roster slot … maybe Locastro, Mercado, or Mitchell get the call for the bench? At this point, probably not adding a significant bat (since none are really available at a Padre price).

Quote from Notmyopic on March 25, 2024, 6:10 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 25, 2024, 5:53 pm

In the Padre notes today it was reported that Machado “resumed” throwing … apparently they backed off his throwing work a few weeks ago so he can focus on his hitting. Now they say they will re-evaluate his return to 3B in a couple of weeks. Not sure if that just means establish a better timeline.

So, it appears Machado will fill the DH role for maybe a month … leaving Wade (maybe platooning with Rosario) at 3B. Have to note that Wade has all the 3B starts in Korea and in this exhibition game vs RHP (not Pauley).

Would that suggest that Pauley a rookie without a starting role gets optioned in favor of an OF? Might also suggest that if they do make an add it will not a DH type.

Padres have an open roster slot … maybe Locastro, Mercado, or Mitchell get the call for the bench? At this point, probably not adding a significant bat (since none are really available at a Padre price).

Really seems pretty dumb to bring Pauley up and start his clock only to not give him run.  Doesn’t seem a good decision.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 25, 2024, 7:55 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on March 25, 2024, 6:10 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 25, 2024, 5:53 pm

In the Padre notes today it was reported that Machado “resumed” throwing … apparently they backed off his throwing work a few weeks ago so he can focus on his hitting. Now they say they will re-evaluate his return to 3B in a couple of weeks. Not sure if that just means establish a better timeline.

So, it appears Machado will fill the DH role for maybe a month … leaving Wade (maybe platooning with Rosario) at 3B. Have to note that Wade has all the 3B starts in Korea and in this exhibition game vs RHP (not Pauley).

Would that suggest that Pauley a rookie without a starting role gets optioned in favor of an OF? Might also suggest that if they do make an add it will not a DH type.

Padres have an open roster slot … maybe Locastro, Mercado, or Mitchell get the call for the bench? At this point, probably not adding a significant bat (since none are really available at a Padre price).

Really seems pretty dumb to bring Pauley up and start his clock only to not give him run.  Doesn’t seem a good decision.

I thought he would play more in Korea too. The service time is nothing to worry about though. They probably just wanted to reward him for having a good spring and didn't think he'd gain much by staying behind while the major leaguers were gone. It was only 2 games on his clock. That's not hard to make up if they want to play service time games.