Quote from MrPadre19 on September 24, 2024, 5:34 am

While winning the next 6 games in a row(that would be 10 to finish the season) would be incredible I'm not going to "expect" it just to be disappointed.

With the worst case scenario being a losing streak to end the season and losing the home Playoff games.

All I know is just winning tonight...no matter what else happens,would make me feel "so much" better.

 

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 24, 2024, 6:39 am

No matter what happens this has been one of the best, and definitely one of the most fun and exciting seasons in all the ones I’ve seen. Which is all of them.

After 100 games, we were 50–50, and since we have gone 40–16!

Has been a fun ride!

Quote from BoosterSD on September 24, 2024, 6:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2024, 3:01 am

MLBTradeRumors is running its rundown of this winter’s FA and they believe that Kim will get a multi-year deal (no $ guess) but what was interesting (and debatable) was that they suggested the Padres could drop the QO on him … that should be in the $22-23MM range.

If the Padres do that and Kim declines they get a draft pick  Note that the Padres are not over the tax threshold in 2024 and are no longer (I believe) a revenue sharing team … they would get a pick after Comp Round A and Kim’s contract size does not matter. (At least I think those are the current rules).

However, the QO is big money for one year … Kim is still young and coming off injury … there is a risk that he would take the QO (way more than whaat he would get annually on a FA contract) to rebuild his value (and the extra money). For the Padres who we think will be struggling to keep under the CBT without Kim … that extra money would be tough to swallow.

Unless Preller “knows” Kim will turn down a QO … hard call for Preller.

IF SD decides to resign Kim, with no immediate option to handle SS until DeVries arrives. I would imagine the best option would be to realign the INF.

Have the conversation with Bogaerts to move to 1B. An INF of Machado at 3B, Kim at SS, Crone at 2B, and Bogaerts at 1B would be the best defensive INF SD might ever have.

Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2024, 9:07 am

Quote from BoosterSD on September 24, 2024, 6:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2024, 3:01 am

MLBTradeRumors is running its rundown of this winter’s FA and they believe that Kim will get a multi-year deal (no $ guess) but what was interesting (and debatable) was that they suggested the Padres could drop the QO on him … that should be in the $22-23MM range.

If the Padres do that and Kim declines they get a draft pick  Note that the Padres are not over the tax threshold in 2024 and are no longer (I believe) a revenue sharing team … they would get a pick after Comp Round A and Kim’s contract size does not matter. (At least I think those are the current rules).

However, the QO is big money for one year … Kim is still young and coming off injury … there is a risk that he would take the QO (way more than whaat he would get annually on a FA contract) to rebuild his value (and the extra money). For the Padres who we think will be struggling to keep under the CBT without Kim … that extra money would be tough to swallow.

Unless Preller “knows” Kim will turn down a QO … hard call for Preller.

IF SD decides to resign Kim, with no immediate option to handle SS until DeVries arrives. I would imagine the best option would be to realign the INF.

Have the conversation with Bogaerts to move to 1B. An INF of Machado at 3B, Kim at SS, Crone at 2B, and Bogaerts at 1B would be the best defensive INF SD might ever have.

MLBTradeRumors just added their SS list and expanded their comments on Kim to include:

Kim figures to decline a QO and pursue a four-plus year deal that could land in the $75-100MM range

Even the low end is too high in my view given payroll and the need to address the 2025 FA.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 24, 2024, 9:40 am

Like MrPadre19, I have been around for all the Padres major league seasons and this one just seems special given the adversity and circumstances the guys on the field have had to rise above time after time.  Resilience and perseverance have created a team vibe that is felt by the fans and probably not understood by those on the outside looking in on how or why this team continues to win.  Play until the 27th out and they are going to have to do that every game for the next six games of the regular season against two very tough opponents.  No matter what the final regulation season outcome, it is a one to be remembered and Peter Seidler surely would have been proud of the legacy he left us.  GO PADRES!

Quote from BoosterSD on September 24, 2024, 11:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2024, 9:07 am

 

MLBTradeRumors just added their SS list and expanded their comments on Kim to include:

Kim figures to decline a QO and pursue a four-plus year deal that could land in the $75-100MM range

Even the low end is too high in my view given payroll and the need to address the 2025 FA.

I agree that $20-25M a year is too much for SD. Even if you could find a taker for Bogaerts, there are other needs that money needs to be spent on other than that much for Kim.

If you could get him in the same range as Cronenworth, then I would be for resigning him.

Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2024, 12:03 pm

Padres are sitting with the 4th best record in MLB (behind LAD-PHIL-NYY) ... and although all teams have had injuries the extended losses of Musgrove, Darvish, Bogaerts, Tatis, Kim, and Machado playing injured in the first few months reflects a lot of "non-stars" exceeding expectations to carry the team. Good chance most (maybe except Kim) be retained for 2025 ... and a full healthy roster may be even more successful.

Just to focus on SP, consider:

Cease ... 32 starts ... 3.42 ERA

King ... 29 starts ... 3.04 ERA

Musgrove ... 18 starts ... 3.95 ERA ... left about 12 starts for others

Darvish ... 15 starts ... 3.18 ERA ... left about 15 starts for others

Those four return in 2025 ... that is a great base for next season. However, the backfills for Musgrove / Darvish and the 5th SP need to be addressed.

Perez ... 9 starts .. 2.61 ERA but a FA who should be out the the Padres price range to re-sign but has been a great trade deadline pick-up

Waldron ... 26 starts (that surprised me) ... 4.79 ERA good start very bad finish

Vasquez ... 19 starts (also more than I thought) ... 5.18 ERA

Mazur ... 8 starts ... 7.49 ERA and gone via trade

Eliminating those 58 starts by Waldron, Vasquez, Mazur by full seasons of Musgrove / Darvish and an "adequate" #5 will set up 2025 for success. (sign Sasaki for the #5 and will be doing backflips).

Re-sign Profar, Solano, and Peralta with healthy Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts keep the offense in tack ... and productive. 2025 could be even better than 2024.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 24, 2024, 2:02 pm

We got lucky with Solano and Peralta but will they be the same hitters at 37 years of age that they were this year?  Because of their age, Padres have the luxury of letting them both go through free agency and then matching the best offer each gets if it fits within whatever the 2025 budget will be.  Personally, I still see a lot of life in their bats and they both seem to be in good physical shape so I'm expecting both will find their way back to San Diego in 2025; they know their roles and they love it here.

Profar has always been a pesky hitter but this year his barrel rate and hard hit % far exceeded anything he has accomplished in the past and he has performed that way all season.  He credits these gains to off-season batting workouts with FTJ.  Tatis is not quite back to the exceptional barrel rate and hard hit% he showed in 2020 and 2021 but he is slowly moving in that direction.  At 32 to start the 2025 season, I see Profar continuing at this level for several more seasons so he deserves a fair contract (12M with incentives?), which probably will be less than what he could get elsewhere.  However, this is where he wants to be and where he has found his joy as a player, so I don't think missing out on a little more money is going to keep him from coming back.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on September 25, 2024, 7:13 am

Great pitching and superior defense are usually the hallmarks of a championship team.  The Padres have that with the exception of their two weakest links - Bogaerts on defense and Suarez in his role as closer.  It almost cost them last night but if both can shake off their respective "slumps" for the remainder of the games the Padres will play in 2024, who knows how it will end?

I'm not ready to replace Bogaerts with Ahmed, but if Kim is healthy enough to throw across the diamond that is who you want out there at shortstop; Bogaerts goes back to 2b.  As for Suarez, he's got to get better location with all of his pitches and induce more ground balls.  If he continues to try to strike everyone out with his heater down the middle of the plate, he puts team success in jeopardy.  Go back to being a pitcher and hit your spots; just being a 100 mph thrower and expecting positive results is not realistic because even guys who have only 5 HRs in a season can take velocity deep.

5 more regular season games and then the playoffs.  Let's finish strong!  GO PADRES!