Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 9, 2024, 11:15 pm

I tend to think AJ will be focused on players who are controllable at least thru 2025. Most of his big trades have been for controllable players. I also think 2025 might be viewed as the end of the window for this current group with Cease, King, and Arraez all set to hit free agency after 2025. I think we'll be looking for guys that help us take 2 shots at contending for a title. I'm also not sure how worried we need to be about the CBT beyond this season. I definitely think they want to reset the penalty. The possibility of Sasaki coming over probably also provides a little extra motivation to stay under and keep our full international budget. Beyond this season I think there's still a lot to be determined. I think it's clear we aren't going to push to the levels Seidler took it too. I'm hoping the first threshold won't be treated like a hard cap though.

From a starting pitching standpoint I do wonder if the Musgrove and Darvish situation might make guys who have experience starting and relieving more appealing. That way you're covered while they're out and may also be able to better manage innings for some guys down the stretch if they do make it back.

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2024, 3:10 am

Think Preller has to deviate from his recent strategy of adding via trade … if he wants quality. He just does not have the quality / depth of prospects to out bid other teams. Plus just to bring this year’s team back will push them over the CBT … so adding 2025 commitments now makes it worse and limits any moves that may be needed next winter.

”Rentals” will require the least out of the prospect pool and still allow greater flexibility for next winter moves  .… moves that I think may hinge on how the Padres finish 2024.

Profar, Kim, Higashioka, Solano are FA …. Cost to resign or cost to replace at a similar talent level will add a lot of salary to the payroll

Arraez (who is basically free this year) will get a very large ARB 3 decision as will King and Cease … also ARB 3.

IF the Padres go deep into the playoffs … they may not have an issue with exceeding the CBT for one last hurrah. However, if they miss the playoffs (and now a 50/50 odds) or just get in and flame out early … I see a chance they reverse gears and start building for the future and maybe deal Arraez, Cease and/or not resign Kim, Profar. If this team … with all its high priced talent over the past three years cannot deliver a strong pennant run again … might stop throwing good money after bad and start selling a year early and at least get some prospect talent in return to rebuild the prospect pool. Unlikely the can afford to resign Arraez and Cease at the kind of contracts they will demand as FA after 2025 … not with the current commitments.

Even with that strategy … the seven large, guaranteed, no trade contracts will keep the payroll high … in the to half on MLB.

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2024, 5:40 am

Yesterday’s game got me concerned (pessimistic) about making a Wild Card slot (more so than earlier this month).

I tend to focus on “losses” (they can’t be undone) and as of today … based on that the Padres are in 8th place … 3 games behind the last two Wild Card teams (NYM, STL) and 1 game behind AZ. More concerning is they are tied with PITT (48 losses) and only 1 game ahead of CHI-CINN-SF. Only 4 games ahead of WASH who has opted to be a seller. Continue to struggle over the next 11 games and potentially the Padres are in 13th place by the trade deadline. If so they would have to catch and pass 6 teams for a Wild Card slot … that could be difficult.

Not sure any trade deadline moves will be enough with the unknown returns of Musgrove, Darvish, and Tatis … if, when, and will they be effective? Note that in the past 30 days the adds of Arraez and Cease have been disasters. Arraez as the lead-off hitter (102 AB) has a low .591 OPS with a very low .267 OBP. Cease in 5 starts has a 6.92 ERA. Overall in the past 30 days the offense ranks 11th in the NL (OPS) and 14th in ERA. The recent performance suggests a trade deadline move or two will not turn the tide … need a number of current players really pick it up.

Preller will want to do everything to win in 2024 BUT is there a point after the next 11 games that moves him to be a seller (or just hold) vs a buyer?

Quote from Stergios on July 13, 2024, 12:12 pm

Good analysis Fenn.  Don’t know which direction we should take this month in terms of acquisitions.  We’re still in it, but there are red flags preventing us from going all in.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 13, 2024, 3:00 pm

The good news is July has a very tough schedule while August will be much easier.

Lets get through July above .500 and then do some damage in August.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on July 23, 2024, 7:41 am

Concur that the toughest part of the Padres schedule has come when they were hit with the most injuries to key personnel.  Need to keep it together for a week plus - if we can split the 3 series for the remainder of the month, it would be a very good sign for a playoff spot but we will need all hands on deck with clutch hitting and solid RP to do it.  A fresh arm in the bullpen or a back end starter that won't further deplete the farm system of top prospects could be a plus but mainly we need to get our guys back and health all around.  A gritty performance thus far and Shildt should be commended but going to have to dig deep for the remainder of this month.

Quote from Randy Manese on August 2, 2024, 4:48 pm

Padres far exceeded my expectations on the road trip and then sweeping the 2 game series at home with the Dodgers.  Now, have to face their recent nemesis - the Colorado Rockies - who put them in their last tailspin.  Good teams have to beat up on less talented teams if they are to make a playoff spot.  Winning the next 5 series against the Rockies, Pirates, Marlins and then Pirates and Rockies again (a total of 15 games - 6 at home and 9 on the road) will go a long way toward reaching that playoff goal.  It would be nice to see Croney and Kim get hot at the plate.  Go Padres!

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 9, 2024, 1:48 pm

While the Mets have a tough schedule the rest of the way if the Phils and/or the Brewers have their Divisions wrapped up (likely) they may rest guys and not be concerned with winning.

This could be a factor....let's hope we tale care of our own business at it doesn't matter.

 

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on September 9, 2024, 2:40 pm

I was asked how many wins it would take to make the playoffs and my response was 89 and the Padres are at 81 and things are getting tight …the heater the Padres had after the All Star break put them in a good position…not great but good. They have 17 games left and need 8 more wins to get to 89 so they need to play at minimum.500 ball to make the postseason and the fact that it’s now a four team race for 3 wildcard spots…Padres, Dbacks, Braves and Mets…it’s getting down to crunch time…I think the Cubs and Cardinals are done. This might be the toughest 8 wins that I can remember in a very long time and this thing is far from over.

The Dbacks have 7 games with the Brewers and the last three with the Padres to close out the season…need some help from Milwaukee…the Braves have 4 games with the Dodgers, 3 games with the Mets and the last 2 are with the Royals…need some help from the Dodgers and the Royals…the Mets have 7 games with the Phillies, 3 with the Braves and close the season with 3 games against the Brewers…the Padres have 2 against the Mariners, 3 with the Giants, 3 with the Astros, 3 with the White Sox, 3 with the Dodgers and the last 3 with the Dbacks in Arizona to close out the season …our Padres need to find a minimum of 8 wins and this is going to be tough.

Go Padres!!!