Quote from fenn68 on June 21, 2024, 5:17 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on June 21, 2024, 4:41 pm

Is that ERA overall? Or specific to SP or RP?

Just by the eye test, SP has been fine but RP has been getting lit up lately.  Peralta- lousy, De Los Santos- runs every game,  Kolek- finally calming down after being mashed for awhile, Matsui- bad lately, even Suarez and Estrada have given up runs. As has Morejon.

SP is going to be fine. And like you say, if Darvish and Musgrove return, and with form, we'll have plenty. And what's happening with Cosgrove? He got off to a bad start this year after a couple of good years.

If we're going to make a run into October, the key returnee has to be Bogaerts. If he turns back into Boston Bogaerts, I like our odds. However, if he's San Diego Bogaerts so far, then it will be an uphill struggle, regardless of our pitching.

 

It is overall ERA. SP started the season strong but recently has struggled … few 6 inning efforts putting more work on the pen … maybe getting them worn down (that happened a few years ago also) from over use or maybe exposing their talent level.

Padres need a run of 6-7 inning effective starts and the bullpen usage may settle with better results.

Quote from fenn68 on June 21, 2024, 5:27 pm

Just to follow-up on YTD ERA … SP 4.14 (9th in NL) and RP 3.98 (9th in NL).

Just for interest … SP are 23-29 (-6) while RP are 16-11 (+5). I guess that means the Padres are better coming from behind than taking and holding a lead.

Pitching may be the Padres Achilles heal if they plan to go deep into the playoffs.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 27, 2024, 5:07 pm

Giants lost

D-Backs lost

Let’s  go Reds!

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 5, 2024, 9:46 pm

Maybe we should just trade for as many good relievers as we can get.

Quote from Alex Tamayo on July 5, 2024, 10:04 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 5, 2024, 9:46 pm

Maybe we should just trade for as many good relievers as we can get.

Two that can close blowouts should do it

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 6, 2024, 10:27 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 5, 2024, 9:46 pm

Maybe we should just trade for as many good relievers as we can get.

 

Quote from Stergios on July 7, 2024, 7:31 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 6, 2024, 10:27 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 5, 2024, 9:46 pm

Maybe we should just trade for as many good relievers as we can get.

 

A solid setup man shouldn’t be prohibitive in cost, should it?  I guess it depends on the market…

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 9, 2024, 4:51 pm

Things could still change with a hot or cold stretch for a few teams, but the buyer/seller picture is starting to get a little bit clearer. In the NL the Rockies and Marlins look like obvious sellers. I think the Nats, Cubs, Reds and Pirates are all likely to join them. In the AL I think the White Sox, Angels, A's, Blue Jays and Tigers are sellers. The Rays and Rangers could join them as well. From the Padres standpoint it's obvious that we need at least 1 starter and multiple bullpen arms. With the uncertainty surrounding Darvish and Musgrove coupled with King's workload increase and the lack of upper level depth we may want to consider adding multiple starters. Then you probably want to find an outfielder that can fill in while Tatis is out and give Tatis and Profar the occasional day off once he's back. Trying to upgrade at catcher could be an outside the box idea. Higgy has been really good lately. Campusano got off to a hot start, but has really been struggling since. If he doesn't get going maybe they look at outside options.

With all of that in mind here is who I think we might be interested in off of the teams that could be sellers.

Marlins- With Luzardo on the 60 day and not set to return until well after the deadline I don't think he's someone we would be after anymore. Most of the Marlins starters seem to be injured or struggling. They do have a number of interesting bullpen arms. Tanner Scott, Declan Cronin, Andrew Nardi, Calvin Faucher and AJ Puk all seem like guys who could help.

Rockies- The Rockies are the team that got me considering the possibility of adding a catcher. Elias Diaz is having another strong season after making the All-Star team last year. He's set to be a free agent at the end of the year. He's been good against all types of pitching and his numbers away from Coors are strong too. Jacob Stallings is absolutely killing lefties in a small sample size. He's got a 1.108 against them and has actually been better on the road than at Coors. He's also set to be a free agent. Beyond those 2 the Rockies don't have much that interests me. There might be some arms that would do better outside of Coors.

Nats- Jesse Winker is looking like the guy he was back in his Cincinnati days again. He's not a great fielder and he's probably best suited for the strong side of a platoon. He's handling lefties reasonably well this year though. I think he would be a big upgrade over the current Peralta/Johnson combination. Lane Thomas could be an ideal platoon partner for Winker as a strong defensive lefty masher. The Nats have reportedly valued him as more of an everyday player. If the price is right he could be an interesting guy to watch. Trevor Williams looked like he was having a breakout season after mixing more sweepers into his repertoire. If he's healthy he could be an interesting option. He has experience as a starter and as a reliever. He's also an RB high kid so he has local ties. Dylan Floro, Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey are all solid to very good relievers. Winker, Williams and Floro are all set to be free agents. Thomas, Finnegan and Harvey are controlled through 2025. The whole group is also relatively low cost with Williams having the highest salary at 6.5m.

Cubs- I don't see much on the Cubs roster that I think helps us. Tyson Miller has done well since they picked him up from the Mariners. There's not much track record there though.

Reds- They're such a young team that it's hard to see them moving too many guys. Buck Farmer is having a strong year in the bullpen. Lucas Sims is an analytical darling, but his results have just been ok. Nick Martinez has been the same guy he was with us. He's struggled as a starter while he's been really good out of the bullpen. With a 12m player option for next season I doubt he'll draw much interest.

Pirates- Another young team that I don't think fits our needs very well. Connor Joe has hit lefties well while playing the outfield corners and 1B. He's still got 3+ years of control, but he's also about to turn 32. Another local kid. He went to Poway High the same time I was there.

White Sox- There's been talk about Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech. I don't love Kopech, but Crochet and Fedde are having incredible years. I do wonder if AJ might look into bringing Steven Wilson back. Even though most of us probably wouldn't like it I wouldn't be surprised if AJ brought back Tommy Pham either.

A's- Brent Rooker has turned into a big time bat, but he's something of a butcher in the field. I don't think anyone meets the price on Mason Miller. Guys like Lucas Erceg or Michael Kelly might be more realistic bullpen targets.

Angels- Carlos Estevez will probably be one of the most in demand rental relievers on the market. Kevin Pillar is mashing lefties so far this season. Tyler Anderson is having a strong year. He's been really good 2 of the last 3 years and is under contract through next season at a reasonable price if he produces at his current level. Guys like Tyler Anderson, Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo could be targets, but the Angels reportedly are planning to keep most of their players who are controlled beyond this season.

Blue Jays- Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi are both having solid years in the rotation. At a 21m AAV it would be hard to fit Bassitt in though. Guys like Yimi Garcia and Chad Green could be bullpen targets.

Rangers- If they decide to sell they have a lot of pitching that could be interesting. Robbie Grossman is still hitting lefties well.

Tigers- I don't think the Tigers would seriously consider trading Tarik Skubal. If they did that seems like exactly the type of splashy move AJ would love to make. He fits the same mold as some of the guys we have been linked to publicly like Luzardo and Crochet. Jack Flaherty might be the top rental starter on the market. Mark Canha is still hitting lefties well and can play the outfield corners and 1B. They have a few solid bullpen arms too.

Rays- The Rays have a number of interesting bullpen arms. I would think they would be eager to get out of Zach Eflin's back loaded contract. Randy Arozarena is struggling. I'm sure there are still a number of teams that would like to take a chance on him.

There should be a lot out there that is interesting to the Padres. It could be hard to make a really big move. Salas and De Vries are said to be close to untouchable. Snelling, Lesko and a number of other upper level prospects have really struggled. Then you have to wonder if we have any financial constraints. I read that the team has asked Darvish to inform them of whether or not he is coming back before the deadline. There's 7m+ hanging in the balance of that decision. Regardless it seems like we really want to stay out of the luxury tax, so we might not be able to pursue higher salaried players without teams covering at least a portion of the money. I still think we'll make a few significant additions. It should be a fun ride.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2024, 6:09 pm

IF the Padres focus on “rentals” there should not be much of an issue with the money (only pick up 1/3rd of annual at deadline) and they have (before adjusting for Darvish) about $10MM. The issue will be more focused on the prospects they are willing to trade vs what other clubs are willing to deal for the desired player. I don’t think they will go over the luxury tax limit … need to reset to get out from under the penalty burden before next winter when they will already be challenged to stay under the tax limit to bring back the current roster.

Don’t see them having the quality / depth of prospects (or willing to deal them) to get a quality low cost / long control target.

Adding someone who has a 2025 large contract just creates a problem with the payroll CBT since bring back the current roster would push them over … so penalty level again.

With Bogaerts returning next weekend and Tatis maybe by the end of the month (out Johnson and Sullivan?) … might not want to invest in upgrading the bench from Wade, Solano, Peralta, and Higashioka … focus limited trade chips on pitching.