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2024 NL Wild Card race

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I know it’s June….and I’m not giving up on the Division…this is baseball,anything can happen.

However,our most likely path to the Playoffs is as a Wild Card and at this point in time it seems it will be a crazy rest of the season.

So who’s our biggest competition?

Who’s hot and who’s not?

What injuries will play a factor?

Who does what at the trade deadline?

That,and more,is what this thread is for.

 

 

 

I know his bat is not what is was; however, I see Preller taking a chance on Abreu now that he has been released and is a league min salary.

I think Preller swings a trade for a high end reliever and maybe a SP as well. Could he go crazy  and swing a mega trade for Crochet, Kopech, and Robert Jr.?

Who goes if Abreu is brought in? Can't move Azocar( only OF reserve and bench speed) Wade? He's been solid so far. We also have to drop someone when Bogaerts comes back.

I like our roster. I hope AJ doesn't drain the farm again.

Wild Card will get interesting in August...right now just have to stay in or close. Abreu is done...see Nelson Cruz. Wade is a better player at this point and Abreu is a name from the past and San Diego should not be a pre-retirement stop anymore.

I know Preller is fighting for his job but gutting the farm system is almost a guarantee he gets fired if he doesn't have any restrictions in my honest opinion  and the best indicator of his future will be if the (Owner/Owners) allow HIM to gut the system, if they do then AJ stays because the guy can spot talent and he will restock in short order...if they don't, he is history because they won't want a depleted farm system for the next GM.

The Cardinals IMO pose the greatest threat atm….although I like our Starting Pitching over theirs.

Although the Reds have the talent to get hit and make a run.

Pirates are the Pirates…they always start well and then fade.But now they have Skenes and Jones in the rotation.

They could be tough in a short series in the playoffs.

 

Our O must find some kind of consistency if we plan on advancing in October.

We know they've got the skills. It just needs to show up more than once every 4 or 5 games.

I still think the lineup juggling is an issue. Anyone else have any ideas?

Definitely can't be one of our patented 1.5 runs per game stretch in a 3 or 5 games series.

Playoffs would be over really quick.

With over a half a season to go way to early make any calls on the Wild Card ... too many moving parts for all the contenders to do any real analysis ... and the contenders are really really close for now.

Just as easy for the Padres who are in the 2nd WC slot (and only one of 5 teams .500 or better) to hold that slot or slide to 13th place in the NL.

Consider the PHIL, LAD, MILW, and ATL are pulling away from the pack while COLO and MIA are falling away ... that leaves 9 teams sitting with 35-37 losses ... two games in the loss column with over a half season to go is minuscule and one good hot or cold streak alters everything.

What will evolve with the Padres ... after Musgrove, Darvish, and Bogaerts return from the IL and will Machado ever rebound to near his 2022 performance level????????????? Amazing the Padres are where they are with those 4 not contributing.

The Padres (Preller) have a challenge as the trade deadline gets closer ... they are constrained as to their options (assuming they are in a position where they want to add).

  1. Every indication is that ownership has mandated that Preller NOT go over the CBT threshold in 2024 ... reset the penalties (save some money while operating without local TV revenues). Padres have about $10MM to work with in 2024 ... 2025 is a bigger issue if the trade target is more than a "rental".
  2. The minor league system is basically void of prospect depth making it difficult (impossible) to create a trade package to land a premier ML player ... other contenders should easily out bid whatever the Padres can put together.
  3. With as many "contenders" as it stand today ... likely very few sellers of anyone the Padres want but a lot of other teams pushing up the cost.

I don't expect anything major from the Padres at the deadline ... and they will pitch the returns of Musgrove and Bogaerts as the deadline upgrades plus the "health" of Machado enough to propel them to the playoffs.

Maybe the following suggests why the Padres seem to be focused on adding to the pitching:

First, offense in the NL based on OPS the Padres are in a good spot:

April ... .683 ... 9th in NL

May ... .711 ... 5th

Jun ... .761 ... 4th

Sure frustrated by hot and cold (same for most teams) but net improving month by month.

On the other hand, pitching is struggling (seems obvious recently) but not too strong all season. Based on NL ERA:

April ... 3.91 ... 9th

May ... 3.49 ... 5th

June ... 4.44 .. 11th

If you buy the theory that good pitching beats good hitting ... especially in the playoffs ... Padres have to hope that Darvish and Musgrove get healthy and regain productivity while Cease returns to his early season form. Some help may come from a lot of days off in July ... staff gets some rest to reset.

Trade deadline with payroll constraints and limited prospects (who others want) to trade will be a challenge if the Wild Card races remain as close. Too few seller ... too many buyers with better resources than the Padres.

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