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2024-25 Offseason Talk
#511 · February 9, 2025, 4:39 pm
Quote from TucsonClip on February 9, 2025, 11:10 amFrom Acee yesterday:
So far, they have not lined up on trade talks regarding Arraez, Cease, King or Robert Suarez. Those talks have been conducted with varying degrees of actual interest in getting something done, and it is difficult to gauge intent and veracity when Preller engages in talks about virtually everything and everyone.
The Padres are also said to be open to moving Xander Bogaerts and a significant portion of the money he is owed over the next several years. The substantial (nearly unclearable) hurdles there would involve finding a trade partner willing to take on what would still be a significant amount of money, that partner having adequate big-league talent to offer in return and which prospects the Padres would have to part with to sweeten the deal. The Padres have had talks regarding Cronenworth and were getting suitors at full price, but a trade of Cronenworth appears highly unlikely mostly because the Padres value him.
Multiple sources have said King is essentially off the trade block, and word is Cease is increasingly likely to stay. But Suarez appears to be another story.
It would be a stretch to say the Padres are intent on trading their closer. But that is the move that appears most probable, according to two people familiar with the tenor of the team’s discussions.
It does appear that a Suarez trade is the most likely move if the Padres want to remain a contender AND dip under the CBT.
Would guess all the other "discussions" with teams on other players probably have not yielded enough of return to keep the Padres contenders in 2025 ... getting quality backfill cheaply (if it was even there) might just may have not be feasible. At least Suarez has the best chance of being backfilled from the current roster.
#512 · February 9, 2025, 5:07 pm
Quote from TucsonClip on February 9, 2025, 9:37 amI think we are overthinking this...
All the reporting has been that Hayward and Joe will platoon in LF. Sure, Joe can fill in at 1B as well. The RHH bat is first going to be Campy (DH), if he's not behind the plate that day, and pending any other roster invites to supplant him (which should be a priority). Arraez would start at 1B.
Feels to me, based on last year, that they are ok with Arraez at 1B.
However, I do agree that adding more SP is a critical priority, and will align with a Suarez trade, most likely a back of the rotation signing.
I know what is being reported on Joe and Hayward platooning in LF ... and agree that the Padres would be OK with Arraez at 1B ... if they did not have a better alternative while filling out a 9 man line-up.
Expecting 6 "everyday players" in the line-up: Arraez, Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Cronenworth, Bogaerts holding the#1-6 batting order slots.
Add a catcher ... Campusano and Diaz.
Then the jugging is around LF and DH/1B based on the best options and that is where ability to hit LHP or RHP and defense factor in. So for the bottom 3 using wRC+ (3 years):
vs. LHP: Rosario; Campusano; Joe; are all over 100 BUT Hayward is a miserable 56 (other teams don't even let him hit LHP) and Diaz is a low 68 (in a 365 PA). So logically Joe goes to LF ... Campusano to C ... and Rosario is DH putting Arraez at 1B.
vs. RHP: Heyward (106); Camposano (98); Joe (88) and then Diaz is at 83 ... Rosario has too few PA. That should put Hayward in LF; keep Campusano at C; and Joe at 1B ... Arraez to DH considering Joe is a vastly superior defensive 1B.
Now Campusano is not going to catch more than 120 games so Diaz will get into the line-up ... and given his history it should be against RHP. If so, Padres will need to make a decision to full rest Campusano or use him as the DH and bench Joe. That may depend on how well Campy and Joe are actually hitting.
Don't see anyone yet that would upset that mix ... except if those players don't play to form. So, probably a mix and match bottom of the order based on opponent and how everyone is going.
#513 · February 10, 2025, 6:20 am
Season could come down to how players perform at C,LF,SP#4,and #5
#514 · February 10, 2025, 7:42 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 10, 2025, 6:20 amSeason could come down to how players perform at C,LF,SP#4,and #5
I will make it even more focused issue ... #4 and #5 SP plus who steps up as the #6 and #7 to fill in to cover injuries or under performance with #4 and #5. Injures will happen to SP (almost alway do).
RP is fine and so is the #1-6 in the batting order (and that should be able to carry even mediocre performance in #7-9).
For now we have Vasquez and Waldron then no proven SP to backfill. Do we have any confidence in how well Vasquez and Waldron will perform. If they stay healthy and perform to their 4.50ish ERA ... probably OK but otherwise if they are worse will be a real challenge to pick up the needed wins out of those starts to make the playoffs.
Padres have said Morejon will remain the the pen ... so who does the Padres have as the first up to move into the SP rotation? Any with even a modicum of ML success (or mediocrity), innings?
#515 · February 10, 2025, 10:59 am
Personally I'm counting on Hoeing.
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#516 · February 10, 2025, 11:36 am
Since I always want fresh faced prospects to emerge ... maybe by mid-season (after these guys get some more AAA/AA time) ... then support could come from: 1) Baez; 2) Lizzaraga; 3) Nett or 4) O.Cruz. No idea what the Padres really think of these four as legit ML prospects and projection for late 2025.
Don't think they are going to be ready out of ST, so open with Vasquez / Waldron but seek to set up the internal options during Apr - Jun.
Hoeing is likely the current first option to step (he was a SP in the minors) and ... if healthy ... Brito may be making his case for a starting role.
Do think ... during ST ... Preller adds one of the many SP still unsigned at a low price and tries to catch some luck on heath / bounce back ... remember an innings eater with a 4.50 ERA could be of significant value to this roster. Plus I wonder if (when) they trade Suarez, Preller negotiates for part (or all) of the return being a similar SP type.
#517 · February 11, 2025, 2:18 am
Padres sign FA White Sox OF Gavin Sheets to a minor league contract.
I did not realize until now that on Jan 6 Bryce Johnson signed a minor league contract with the Pirates.
Only 3 Padres free agents left:
OF David Peralta, SS Nick Ahmed, and RP Carl "C.J." Edwards
#518 · February 11, 2025, 5:20 am
Ahmed has signed with TEXAS.
#519 · February 11, 2025, 2:38 pm
Hayward officially signed for $1MM plus $250K incentives. Keep in mind that the base is only $250K+/- over league minimum ... so getting a veteran of his talent for that price is a real bargain
So, if LF plays out as a L/R platoon with Heyward / Joe ... based on their last three seasons using only their strong side splits ... Padres should have an "average" LF for just $2MM and in this market that is a steal. Remember we are only looking for bottom third of the line-up support ... so good.
#520 · February 11, 2025, 2:48 pm
Potential line-up:
1 Arraez (L)
2 Tatis
3 Merrill (L)
4 Machado
5 Bogaerts
6 Cronenworth (L)
7 Heyward (L) / Joe
8 Campusano / Diaz
9 DH (TBD 2 out of): Lockridge; Rosario; Ornelas (L); or a non-roster add (see my sleeper Perlaza (#))
Bench utility: Wade (L) INF including SS and OF including CF
Not all that bad and probably could live with a platoon of Rosario / Ornelas (L) at DH if no one else steps up. Also, might see Rosario get some platoon time with Cronenworth (L) at 2B ... Cronenworth does struggle vs LHP depending on the last player added.