Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 8, 2025, 8:36 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 8, 2025, 4:18 am

Of note about 75% of the starts in MLB are made by RHP ... suggesting the Heyward even if he only starts vs RHP will be in 75% of the games. Because of that and I think Connor Joe is being brought in to play a lot more that 25% of the games ... I could see Joe starting as the "regular" 1B. If so, the bench pieces plus Joe's flexibility for LF and 1B could dictate any variety of  platooning options for Heyward (vs LHP) or Joe (if needed vs RHP). Again some interesting ST battles for the last two bench slots.

Also, saw a comment out of a PITT writer that Joe may show a lot better than his last season in PITT if the Padres use him "right". He thought Sheldon too often used him in the middle of the batting order where he struggles but if at the top or bottom he was very good ... especially OBP.

So, given the projected Padres' line-up with Arraez leading off ... dropping Joe into #9 with his high OBP setting up Arraez, Tatis, et. al might be very productive.

Heyward was good in 2023. Otherwise the last 4 seasons have been a struggle for him. To be fair I thought Peralta was cooked when we picked him up too. I'm just not at all excited by this move. I'm hoping Tirso Ornelas has a big spring and grabs the starting job.

Looking at Joe's splits it looks like he's hit well batting 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 7th. He's actually been pretty terrible in small sample sizes hitting 8th and 9th. I'm not sure what the Pittsburgh writer was basing his observation on. I don't put much stock in batting order position for major league players. I remember arguing with people on this board who said Juan Soto couldn't hit 2nd. He did alright there for the Yankees last year. I wouldn't expect Joe to hit much higher than 6th when he's in the lineup. I just don't think where he hits is going to change his performance.

Quote from fenn68 on February 8, 2025, 9:29 am

I guess a bit depends on what the paid for Hayward and Joe but not as down on Hayward as much if he is just platoon vs RHP (keep him away from LHP).

Although last season his wRC+ was an overall just 94 (and considering his defense and no known better alternatives) that is OK for the bottom of the line-up. However, in a platoon situation his 2024 wRC+ vs RHP was 101 ... basically average and coupled with this defense makes him justifiable (depending on the salary). Should note his 3 year wRC+ vs RHP is a 106 ... also fine. However, must have a RHH hitting platoon option in LF since his wRC+ vs LHP in 2024 was a dismal 39 and over the three years a poor 56.

On the other hand, might see Joe playing more regularly since his splits vs RHP is not that bad. For the overall wRC+ (2024 and 3 year) he hit at 92 and 96 ... again not horrible for bottom of the line-up production. However vs LHP he went 99 and 108, so again "average". Weaker vs RHP ... 88 and 88 but not so bad as to force a platoon unless a LHH alternative is at hand.

Given the current roster ... COULD swing Joe to LF vs LHP and insert Rosario who seems to like hitting LHP at 1B. Rosario is short and that is not  great for a 1B BUT he is an INF with a lot of experience at 3B and a decent fielder. Padres did OK with "short" 1B in Arraez and Solano as needed in 2024. So, might work. I don't see a clear RHH to platoon with Hayward in LF at this point unless Lockridge surprises.

If they want a LHH to platoon with Joe ... maybe Ornelas (who has some 1B experience) ... it will not be the no hit Wade. Not a lot of alternative LHH in camp that are clear candidates ... maybe Perlaza (switch hitting OF/INF) and Arraez plays 1B. Could be a ST roster spot battle between Ornelas (has minor league options) and non-roster Perlaza.

Since the top 6 in the order are pretty locked in full time ... Campusano / Diaz getting another slot after the top 6 ... actually pretty comfortable with a mix and match for the last two slots in the bottom third of the line-up among Hayward (L), Joe, Rosario, Ornelas (L) even if no surprise entrant.

Quote from fenn68 on February 8, 2025, 10:33 am

Per Acee:

Joe signs a one year deal for $1MM plus potential of an additional $1.5MM via incentives. Basically the Profar deal last year.

Also, no terms yet, but apparently Hayward also signed a low base salary deal  ... just don't know how low is low.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 8, 2025, 8:19 pm

I would imagine that a majority of the playing time could be based on defense. Is Joe the better 1B over Arraez? Is Heyward better in LF than Joe? Maybe we see Heyward the majority of the time in LF, Joe mainly at 1B, and Arraez at DH.

Quote from WindsorUK on February 9, 2025, 2:45 am

Given the current roster, how do you split Joe and Heyward in the lineup, if both are playing? Do you bury them both at the bottom? Or split them up?

We were super spoiled last year- no weak links 1-9. 2025 will be different.

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2025, 5:18 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 8, 2025, 8:19 pm

I would imagine that a majority of the playing time could be based on defense. Is Joe the better 1B over Arraez? Is Heyward better in LF than Joe? Maybe we see Heyward the majority of the time in LF, Joe mainly at 1B, and Arraez at DH.

Hayward is one of the best defensive OF (even at his age) ... so, given being an "average" hitter vs RHP but horrible vs. LHP would expect him to start in LF vs RHP (which is about 75% of the time). Should note that although he will not replace Profar's offense from 2024, his defense metric are vastly better than Profar's ... I mean VASTLY ... defense metric have never like Profar in the OF.

Joe is a very good 1B ... again per some metrics he is Cronenworth's equal (or even better) so expect him to be primarily the regular 1B and hits "well enough". He however is not a particularly good LF. Arraez is by the metrics awful defensive at any position ... so should be a DH only.

Shildt will have some choices on how to cover Hayward vs LHP (basically 25% of the starts) ... and all are unproven and keep in mind that with Diaz and Wade taking two of the 4 bench slots ... only two remain.

Looking for a RHH to hit LHP ...

1. Lockridge (on the roster) ... gives speed and defense but hitting ??? was just OK in the minors, never a top propect, and about 27
2. Gonzales (non-roster) ... had a excellent rookie season offensively a few years back the (with injuries) just faded away ... has some power ... if he is healthy can he recapture some of that rookie season?
3. Perlaza (non-roster) ... switch hitter adds to his value ... never in ML but "good" in minors then a "good" run in Korea. Has power. Also has some history as a 2B adding to his versatility.
4. Rosario (roster and out of options) ... has the reputation of hitting LHP above average but not an OF. So his use may require Joe to LF and Rosario at 1B or DH (Arraez at 1B). Note that Rosario has been primarily a 3B ... so defensively anywhere else is unknown territory.
5. Can't really see any other prominent option coming to camp.

If they want the last slot to go to a LHH to spell Joe vs some RHP ... don't really see much except Ornelas who has some experience at 1B. I do expect Joe to play the majority of games vs both RH and LH pitching. Joe is under control for 3 years ... so probably not going to focus on adding an alternative 1B at this point. Might during ST see if they can get a more reliable OF for the bench / platoon in LF on the cheap and with control since Hayward is a one and done.

At this point ... think Preller's focus (and resources) will be on SP (bottom of the rotation types) ... either via a trade of Suarez or a reclamation project and league minimum with incentives.

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2025, 5:35 am

The achilles heal of the Padres will be SP depth ... and injuries will happen.

For reference, MLB SP had a average ERA of about 4.17 ... which is something a bit less than 3 runs in a 6 inning start.

King and Cease are clearly upper rotation arms (some of the best) with ERAs in the mid 3s. Critical to get to and advance in the playoffs. Darvish at this stage should be a solid #3 "average".

For #4 / #5 Waldron and Vasquez ... a bit shaky but their 2024 ERAs were in the 4.50 range which is not bad for bottom of the rotation types. If the Padres can come some consistency out of them yielding 3 runs / 6 innings (4.50 ERA) ... they do have a lock down bullpen and an offense the can deliver more than 3 runs ... and preserve a win. I is getting the win no matter the quality that counts.

The major concern is that after those five ... no one even close to be proven as a SP ... even a bad SP is in camp. Note they have said Morejon will remain the the pen. On this the Padres will have to get very lucky.

Quote from TucsonClip on February 9, 2025, 9:37 am

I think we are overthinking this...

All the reporting has been that Hayward and Joe will platoon in LF. Sure, Joe can fill in at 1B as well. The RHH bat is first going to be Campy (DH), if he's not behind the plate that day, and pending any other roster invites to supplant him (which should be a priority). Arraez would start at 1B.

Feels to me, based on last year, that they are ok with Arraez at 1B.

However, I do agree that adding more SP is a critical priority, and will align with a Suarez trade, most likely a back of the rotation signing.

Quote from TucsonClip on February 9, 2025, 11:10 am

From Acee yesterday:

So far, they have not lined up on trade talks regarding Arraez, Cease, King or Robert Suarez. Those talks have been conducted with varying degrees of actual interest in getting something done, and it is difficult to gauge intent and veracity when Preller engages in talks about virtually everything and everyone.

The Padres are also said to be open to moving Xander Bogaerts and a significant portion of the money he is owed over the next several years. The substantial (nearly unclearable) hurdles there would involve finding a trade partner willing to take on what would still be a significant amount of money, that partner having adequate big-league talent to offer in return and which prospects the Padres would have to part with to sweeten the deal. The Padres have had talks regarding Cronenworth and were getting suitors at full price, but a trade of Cronenworth appears highly unlikely mostly because the Padres value him.

Multiple sources have said King is essentially off the trade block, and word is Cease is increasingly likely to stay. But Suarez appears to be another story.

It would be a stretch to say the Padres are intent on trading their closer. But that is the move that appears most probable, according to two people familiar with the tenor of the team’s discussions.