Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2025, 1:09 pm

I know no one like to talk the financial side of any sports but have to toss this into the thinking ... with no idea of the long term ramifications to all sports teams.

Apparently there is a Federal Income Tax proposal to close a loophole that allows for rapid amortization of basically intangible assets that are used as part of the valuation of ball clubs. Trying to make this simple ... teams can expense these "non-cash" expenses to generate a tax loss and owners with other businesses can take those tax losses against the profits of those other business and save a ton of cash via lower taxes.

As I understand it, the team value (if being bought or sold) is higher due to the existence of this tax strategy. Kill the loophole and team values drop (owners will not like that) but conceivably that may result in a reduced ability to borrow off a reduced team value and MLB debt rules plus may discourage owners putting more cash into the team.

With Cash being king ... and closing the loophole ... more money is paid to the Federal government via income taxes then potentially less cash to run the teams. Would even the specter of less cash motivate some teams to hold back on any big, long term commitments going forward? Maybe even pare down their current salary levels?

Maybe be a boring issue but may impact the future of many baseball teams.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 7, 2025, 1:16 pm

Quote from Alex Tamayo on February 7, 2025, 12:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2025, 11:23 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 7, 2025, 11:08 am

I still believe one of Suarez/Cease are traded.

Bringing back a young lf/1B bat in the deal.

But who really knows?

 

 

 

Agree if for no other reason than to get under the CBT ... and Suarez would be my bet since some demand (don't expect a big return) and could be covered. So maybe a 1B like Torkelson (maybe some others in the deal going both ways).

At this stage, if they trade Cease I would believe the Padres are out of playoff contention ... so guessing no trade unless money is a bigger factor. Padres are not getting a quality pitcher for 2025 in return ... they already are short of SP ... FA market of even marginal SP is costly.

The pessimist in me thinks if they trade Cease ... might as well go whole hog and trade King, Arraez, Suarez, and Peralta all of whom can be FA after the season and gather a massive haul of prospects for the 2028 Padres' playoff run.

2028? That would be like waiting for the Hedges, Margots, Renfroes, Quantrills of the world taking the team to the next level all over again. 🙁

Cease will only be traded if AJ gets back a guy he thinks could be a solid #3 SP for a few years.

Otherwise Cease is unavailable IMO.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2025, 4:13 pm

D. Lin is reporting the Padres are finalizing a FA deal with Conner Joe.

He is now 32 and played last season with PITT for about $2.1MM and was non-tendered this off season. Based on service time he should be controlled for 3 years. No report yet on what the Padres contract will look like.

He can play both 1B and LF as a RHH ... career about 10% above average wRC+ vs LHP and about 10% below average vs RHP. Has the making of a platoon option if they end up with a someone who hits RHP (David Peralta? or  Ornelas?)

Seems like a good signing.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 7, 2025, 5:42 pm

Looks like Conner Joe is coming home...he played for me at Poway High a long time ago. Great young man and a good ballplayer...Can play OF and 1B

I'm going to have to stop by and talk with his folks...very cool.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 7, 2025, 6:36 pm

I was a few years ahead of Connor Joe at Poway High. I didn't really know him, but I know people who did and by all accounts he's a good guy. It'll be cool to have a Titan to root for with the hometown team again. I'm still amazed by how many guys from around that time made it to the league. Xavier Scruggs, Brett Bochy, Thomas Neal, Alex Dickerson, Kevin Newman, Austin Wynns and Connor Joe were all there in the same 4 or 5 year stretch. I've always wondered if that's some kind of record.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 7, 2025, 8:44 pm

Well,there’s the RH LF/1B…..just not via trade.

 

Quote from ultratvfan on February 7, 2025, 11:37 pm

The Padres sign OF Jason Heyward.

I assume Heyward and Joe will be platooning LF.

Quote from fenn68 on February 8, 2025, 2:47 am

Heyward if nothing else will be a top defensive OF even at his age ... although has spent very little time as a LF (mainly CF/RF) should adapt easily.

UP and down as a hitter but for his career has hit above 100 wRC+ vs RHP (not so much vs LHP). So, can see a Joe / Hayward platoon.

Given the other current options for LF and 1B ... outside chance Hayward could play LF near full time and Joe 1B near full time or platoons still exist at both 1B and LF. Makes for some interesting battles for the last few 26 man roster slots. With Hayward and Joe added and Wade / Diaz under ML contract ... only two slots open and four roster options in Ornelas (L), Rosario, Lockridge, and Sullivan (L) ... with Rosario and Sullivan out of options. Getting more difficult for the non-roster types out of ST.

Quote from fenn68 on February 8, 2025, 3:08 am

It will be interesting to see the terms on the Hayward and Joe contract ... both 1 year as reported. ML deals and given their profiles (and this is still pre-ST) expect both to be well above the $1MM mark (although creative).

These moves will push the Padres further over the CBT (and they were over by about $4MM). So, either the CBT limit is not really a limit OR the next step is a trade to shed some payroll.

If a trade is on the horizon, the target return may move away from a starting position player (maybe more flexible on upside prospect not quite ML ready) OR ... and this is tricky if Preller is trading pitching ... get SP pitching in return ... low cost SP that is.

Suarez ($10MM) may yield a bottom of the rotation type, maybe a prospect with upside down the road but just serviceable in 2025 (or mid-2025 to cover an injury).

Cease ($13.8MM) could get one good prospect type SP that could be ML ready to at least support the bottom of the rotation and a second fringe SP I guess. However, would really worry about the Padres ability to contend without Cease no matter the return in a trade.

So, if CBT is a cap and Hayward / Joe are not coming in with too high salaries, might get away with dealing only Suarez (or maybe Suarez and Peralta) ... clearing around $14MM in CBT if both and leaving some "cushion" for mid season adds.

Work to be done ... but more comfortable with the offense with these two signings.