Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2025, 6:58 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2025, 2:49 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on January 30, 2025, 1:38 pm

There are talks of the Padres trading Cease bewteen the Cubs. I don't see how the Padres can afford to lose Cease right now. Maybe at the trade deadline.

Saw that ... don't expect anything to come of it.

Think the logic was trading Cease for an elite prospect who steps in to the Padre line-up and then take the saved $13.8MM and sign Flaherty to a multi-year deal in that same range.

Flaherty not as good as Cease but Cease is gone after 2025 (no chance to re-sign him at the money Boras will demand) so is getting multi-years of Flaherty plus a low cost, elite prospect to fill a current need net a better result short term and long term? Faults in that logic are that the Cubs will give up that "elite ML ready" prospect (probably not) and Flaherty will sign that cheaply (probably not but pretty sure Preller has that scoped out already).

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Hard to see them dealing either Cease or King unless they have something in the weeds with a "bargain" signing of Flaherty AND would get a quaintly ML ready SP prospect as part of the return along with a need position player prospect.

Sort of a plus 3 being better than the minus 1 ... all netting at the same to the payroll. Plus the added benefit of setting up 2026.

Rumor is SD wants Matt Shaw.

I could live with that…

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2025, 8:17 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2025, 6:58 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2025, 2:49 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on January 30, 2025, 1:38 pm

There are talks of the Padres trading Cease bewteen the Cubs. I don't see how the Padres can afford to lose Cease right now. Maybe at the trade deadline.

Saw that ... don't expect anything to come of it.

Think the logic was trading Cease for an elite prospect who steps in to the Padre line-up and then take the saved $13.8MM and sign Flaherty to a multi-year deal in that same range.

Flaherty not as good as Cease but Cease is gone after 2025 (no chance to re-sign him at the money Boras will demand) so is getting multi-years of Flaherty plus a low cost, elite prospect to fill a current need net a better result short term and long term? Faults in that logic are that the Cubs will give up that "elite ML ready" prospect (probably not) and Flaherty will sign that cheaply (probably not but pretty sure Preller has that scoped out already).

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Hard to see them dealing either Cease or King unless they have something in the weeds with a "bargain" signing of Flaherty AND would get a quaintly ML ready SP prospect as part of the return along with a need position player prospect.

Sort of a plus 3 being better than the minus 1 ... all netting at the same to the payroll. Plus the added benefit of setting up 2026.

Rumor is SD wants Matt Shaw.

I could live with that…

Problem is that the Cubs can't ... they don't need Cease that badly.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2025, 3:20 am

Although fans tend to focus on holes in the roster of their team and want trades / FA to make the team better they tend to not fully evaluate the rest of the league. That does make for the hot stove talk but really what is the team's (Preller's) view.

I have seen a few national types project that the Padres' CURRENT roster can make the playoffs (I agree) after assessing the Padres and the competition. Now understand any projection is fraught with assumptions that will not come to be ... basically easy to project but hard to be right. IF Preller's mindset is aligned with those projections ... his efforts to improve the team may be tempered to making deals only very favorable to the Padres both in 2025 and for the future. Add that he is never in a panic to make any deal.

If so, the big unknown is the true payroll target ... and what do potential trade partners believe. IF they believe the narrative from early this off-season, they are likely really low balling any offers.

What is interesting is the progression of the payroll narrative from early this off-season the suspicion that it will only go up "slightly" for the $169MM (that would require multiple trades of existing players) to a bit later the rumor that although lower maybe closer to the current level (needing less player movement) to the more current rumor that maybe they could handle a payroll very near the current number (about $209MM). Where the early rumors wrong ... has the ownership changed its position ... or has the Padres been using the rumor mill to try to alter the view of the teams on the Padres NEED to deal for a more favorable environment for Preller to swing a favorable deal for the Padres?

No idea what to believe BUT if Preller does have the ability to hold on the current roster with the current payroll plan AND he believes the view that the current team can make the playoffs ... he may just not deal this winter (baring a favorable deal for the Padres) and delay any movement until mid-season, trade deadline if needed. Part of the equation is that the roster may be the Padres best shot at the playoffs for a few years understanding they cannot re-sign Cease, King, Suarez, and Arraez with no equivalent replacements arriving in 2026 ... I am guessing that only Arraez might return for 2026 (new deal) but that leaves the pitching staff somewhat non-playoff quality.

So, there is a legitimate scenario that suggests no major trade by Preller and still make the playoffs UNLESS another teams cracks and makes the dream compelling "over pay" for someone and that almost certainly will require a major SP prospect (ML ready) as part of the return ... not easy to get.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2025, 10:43 am

Padres and King avoid arbitration with a "creative" contact that helps the Padres with 2025 cash and CBT.

Signing bonus ($3MM), 2025 Salary ($1MM), and 2025 incentives ($250K potential). Then a $15MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3.75MM buyout.

The bonus, 2025 salary, and incentives come out of 2025 cash and against the 2025 CBT ... the buyout is both cash and CBT in 2026.

King also gets tax advantaged on the bonus being a FLA resident without state income tax and (I think) the buyout since they are lump sum payments not salary tax in CA. So put all that together and King gets close to what he asked for if he got it all as 2025 salary.

So, if I am right, 2025 cash payroll is now at (near) $211MM but they now nudge down to maybe on $300K over the CBT ... minimizing any cash penalty if they ended here.

Good to see both sides working together on a creative deal that benefits both side.

Still think a trade of someone is on the horizon to move the Cash/CBT down a bit more if for no other reason to make space for mid-season / trade deadline moves (adds).

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 31, 2025, 11:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2025, 10:43 am

Padres and King avoid arbitration with a "creative" contact that helps the Padres with 2025 cash and CBT.

Signing bonus ($3MM), 2025 Salary ($1MM), and 2025 incentives ($250K potential). Then a $15MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3.75MM buyout.

The bonus, 2025 salary, and incentives come out of 2025 cash and against the 2025 CBT ... the buyout is both cash and CBT in 2026.

King also gets tax advantaged on the bonus being a FLA resident without state income tax and (I think) the buyout since they are lump sum payments not salary tax in CA. So put all that together and King gets close to what he asked for if he got it all as 2025 salary.

So, if I am right, 2025 cash payroll is now at (near) $211MM but they now nudge down to maybe on $300K over the CBT ... minimizing any cash penalty if they ended here.

Good to see both sides working together on a creative deal that benefits both side.

Still think a trade of someone is on the horizon to move the Cash/CBT down a bit more if for no other reason to make space for mid-season / trade deadline moves (adds).

 

It helps with 2025 cash it doesn't do anything to his CBT number. The buyout money applies to 2025. His CBT number is 7.75m with incentives that could push it to 8.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2025, 11:28 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 31, 2025, 11:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2025, 10:43 am

Padres and King avoid arbitration with a "creative" contact that helps the Padres with 2025 cash and CBT.

Signing bonus ($3MM), 2025 Salary ($1MM), and 2025 incentives ($250K potential). Then a $15MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3.75MM buyout.

The bonus, 2025 salary, and incentives come out of 2025 cash and against the 2025 CBT ... the buyout is both cash and CBT in 2026.

King also gets tax advantaged on the bonus being a FLA resident without state income tax and (I think) the buyout since they are lump sum payments not salary tax in CA. So put all that together and King gets close to what he asked for if he got it all as 2025 salary.

So, if I am right, 2025 cash payroll is now at (near) $211MM but they now nudge down to maybe on $300K over the CBT ... minimizing any cash penalty if they ended here.

Good to see both sides working together on a creative deal that benefits both side.

Still think a trade of someone is on the horizon to move the Cash/CBT down a bit more if for no other reason to make space for mid-season / trade deadline moves (adds).

 

It helps with 2025 cash it doesn't do anything to his CBT number. The buyout money applies to 2025. His CBT number is 7.75m with incentives that could push it to 8.

My mistake on the CBT ... so Padres are now about $5MM over the CBT ... so still incentive for a payroll reduction trade (remember Suarez is $9.2MM vs the CBT). Move Suarez (who is at least the one who can be covered the best internally) for a prospect and that not only gets them under the CBT but provides a cushion for those mid-season add.

Quote from JasonE135 on January 31, 2025, 11:40 am

Aren't both Cease and King both eligible for qualifying offers after this year? That means an additional 2 supplemental first round picks if we are under the CBT threshold, doesn't it? I'm sure Preller wants those picks, or at least additional value in trades to cover those picks.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2025, 12:28 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on January 31, 2025, 11:40 am

Aren't both Cease and King both eligible for qualifying offers after this year? That means an additional 2 supplemental first round picks if we are under the CBT threshold, doesn't it? I'm sure Preller wants those picks, or at least additional value in trades to cover those picks.

If the Padres make QO offers and are over the CBT the comp picks drop from COMP Round B to after the 4th round as I understand it. That is a pretty big drop in potential talent even if the pick is not lost.

I suspect that King, Cease, Arraez, and maybe Suarez get QO with the first three clearly declining seeking long term deals. Suarez will depend a bit on how good his 2025 is.

So, a factor in structuring a deal from both the Padres side and the trade partner's side who will gain the QO opportunity (Comp pick) if the deal is made prior to the season starting.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2025, 12:48 pm

I guess the trade chip(s) Preller uses ... if any ... changes depending on the changes in the offers for any of the four moveable players with larger contracts.

IF Peller's marching orders is to ensure the Padres end 2025 under the CBT ... full stop. Then under that direction build the best team to make the playoffs ... he may not really care who he trades if after the trade(s) he makes the CBT and the team is better (or no worse). Better could come from the return in the trade combined with the payroll space to insert some critical FA to balance / fill out the roster.

As I keep harping on ... the most logical first move(s) are the dealing of Suarez ($10MM) and Peralta ($4.5MM) .. there is always a demand for RP ... both in this market are fairly priced (maybe even a bit of a bargain) ... Padres have backfill (Adam, Estrada, Reynolds, plus). That would both clear the CBT issue and leave some money on the table for adds. Only Preller needs to not over demand in the return ... I could live with prospects a year or so away with upside.

After that don't really have to move any of Cease, King, or Arraez but would consider a move IF the return is that compelling ... basically the negotiation edge shifts back to Preller. Of course never really know how Preller view the value of anyone in trades and what is a "compelling" return for a player will end up with fans on both sides of the deal.