Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2025, 4:50 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 31, 2025, 4:27 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2025, 6:58 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2025, 2:49 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on January 30, 2025, 1:38 pm

There are talks of the Padres trading Cease bewteen the Cubs. I don't see how the Padres can afford to lose Cease right now. Maybe at the trade deadline.

Saw that ... don't expect anything to come of it.

Think the logic was trading Cease for an elite prospect who steps in to the Padre line-up and then take the saved $13.8MM and sign Flaherty to a multi-year deal in that same range.

Flaherty not as good as Cease but Cease is gone after 2025 (no chance to re-sign him at the money Boras will demand) so is getting multi-years of Flaherty plus a low cost, elite prospect to fill a current need net a better result short term and long term? Faults in that logic are that the Cubs will give up that "elite ML ready" prospect (probably not) and Flaherty will sign that cheaply (probably not but pretty sure Preller has that scoped out already).

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Hard to see them dealing either Cease or King unless they have something in the weeds with a "bargain" signing of Flaherty AND would get a quaintly ML ready SP prospect as part of the return along with a need position player prospect.

Sort of a plus 3 being better than the minus 1 ... all netting at the same to the payroll. Plus the added benefit of setting up 2026.

Rumor is SD wants Matt Shaw.

I could live with that…

If you're going to trade Cease to a team in the NL then go BIG...Shaw and Cassie both plus a lower level arm

Let them keep Cassie (really don't like his hitting as much as some do) and sub in RHP Horton (a bit lower in the rankings but still MLB #52). Need a ML ready pitcher back in the return. Of course doubt the Cubs will move Shaw who I and everyone really likes.

Cubs are not that needy for Cease but do have a loaded farm ... so does a #53 Horton and a#73 Triantos (he can hit in the current Padres style and could fit into either 2b or LF) work for Preller. Both AAA on the verge of MLB. Plus that frees up $13.8MM to fix the CBT and leave some to fill other slots. Two Top 100 is not unreasonable if you use last winter and the return for Burnes ... market has risen and Cease has a lower salary.

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Should note another speculation (not rumor) of Cease to the Mets for RHP Sproat (MLB #46, AAA) and SS Williams (MLB #58). Again a MLB ready arm to backfill plus a SS to bump Bogaerts to 2B, Cronenworth to 1B, Arraez to DH making the INF defense measurable stronger and Williams offense only has to be better than the TBD currently for DH ... so not a big hurdle and the position player roster is clearly better. Side in that speculation was Mets could also send LHP Peterson (less than $5MM and controlled for 2026) who has had 2 very good years and 2 very bad years in the past 4 plus some injury history. Might not be all for Cease and Padres may add a supporting piece or two but that might be compelling. Not sure if the Mets are that interested in upgrading their SP but it is Cohen and he has a ton of money invested ... so to compete with PHIL and ATL in the East and ultimately LAD ... can't be comfortable standing pat even if some would consider this an over pay for a rental.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 31, 2025, 7:34 pm

Not really on the offseason talk; however, one thing to watch this season is Machado. He is going for two milestones this season, he needs 8 HRs and 100 hits for 2,000.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 1, 2025, 2:56 am

Manny needs 8 HR's to reach 350...people can say what they want but Manny has some pretty good numbers and he isn't done yet

.279 batting average, 1,900 hits, 342 home runs, 1,049 RBIs, and 991 runs scored. He has won 2 Gold Glove awards and 2 Silver Slugger awards

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 1, 2025, 1:40 pm

This is one guy that keeps popping into my head...Jose Iglesias. He can play a solid SS,3B and 2B and just might be worth kicking the tires on...still unsigned but a solid player even at 35 years old. I'm guessing he could play 1B in a pinch. He could be this years Donovan Solano...play 2B and let Jake play 1B with Arraez as DH or play 3B and give Manny a day off to DH or play SS and let Xander DH...the possibilities are endless and Shildt would have a solid vet. They resigned Diaz for catcher to platoon with Campusano and maybe even bring back Peralta to plug a hole in LF.

Iglesias and Peralta would not break the bank and they could keep their starters (Cease and King) and if they needed any salary relief...Suarez in a trade and I think they have enough in the bullpen to compensate for the loss of Suarez. Trade deadline for either Cease or King...I would prefer to keep King and teams would pony up plenty for Cease if they thought he would get them into the post season. King might be an easier sign than Cease and Hosmer's money is freed up to make that happen along with the Cease money plus we get Musgrove back for 2026.

Thoughts ?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 1, 2025, 5:20 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 1, 2025, 1:40 pm

This is one guy that keeps popping into my head...Jose Iglesias. He can play a solid SS,3B and 2B and just might be worth kicking the tires on...still unsigned but a solid player even at 35 years old. I'm guessing he could play 1B in a pinch.

Thoughts ?

I had the same thought. He seemed like a big clubhouse vibes guy for the Mets which we could use with Profar and Kim guy. He could play 2B against lefties and bounce around as needed the rest of the time. I'm guessing he's looking for a modest raise after the year he had. Teams are understandably reluctant to give it to him since it seems like it was largely driven by extreme BABIP luck. He'll probably have to accept that he's not going to get a ton more to find a deal.

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2025, 5:32 am

I don't see the Padres having Iglesias as a priority even at league minimum (that may go for any bench type INF).

1. the current INF of Cronenworth - Bogaerts - Machado are each 150+ games starters so very little need for bench support
2. currently the Padres have Wade (LHH and under contract), Rosario (RHH and out of minor league options), then Brosseau (RHH non-roster) all in line for a back-up INF role. Could argue that each has more value the the Padres than Iglesias.
3. if any additional money is spent ... the higher priority upgrades are likely: LF; bottom of the rotation SP; and 1B/DH.

Wrong time for Iglesias.

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2025, 6:00 am

Not sure on much of the following but if valid ... a strong incentive for the Padres to finish 2025 under the CBT.

1. Padres WERE a small market club (complicated calculation by MLB) but were bumped I think because of their spending over the CBT. That cost them receiving extra via revenue sharing. "Small market" uses media revenue, attendance, other local revenues ... have to think based on the TV issue alone should still qualify as "small market".
2. So if being over the CBT even by $1 cost them millions in increased revenue sharing ... money that can be used to insure all the non-payroll are properly funded (e.g. scouts, analysis, etc.)
3. Additionally, if over the CBT and make QO (think after 2025 Cease, King, Arreaz, Suarez) that are declined ... a non-small market team will have the comp pick drop from after the 2nd round to after the 4th round. IF a "small market" club that drop would come from right after the 1st round .. over 90 draft slots and loss of a lot of potential pool allocation which is a source of valuable flexibility in signing strategy.

If any of the above is valid ... it behoves the Padres to do everything it can to reestablish itself as "small market" and under the CBT. Cleary don't do anything carelessly for minimal 2025 value.

Note this is sort of the opposite situation the A's find themselves in where they are "forced" to spend more to get to a minimum payroll in order to qualify for the extra revenue sharing money. Think spend $30MM in order to get $70MM from the league ... and end up $40MM better off. Maybe the system suggest the Padres spend less (under CBT) to get more?

Given the Padres are currently over the CBT ... have to expect a trade or two to dip below the CBT and hopefully add some low cost pieces to upgrade in some areas.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 2, 2025, 8:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2025, 5:32 am

I don't see the Padres having Iglesias as a priority even at league minimum (that may go for any bench type INF).

1. the current INF of Cronenworth - Bogaerts - Machado are each 150+ games starters so very little need for bench support
2. currently the Padres have Wade (LHH and under contract), Rosario (RHH and out of minor league options), then Brosseau (RHH non-roster) all in line for a back-up INF role. Could argue that each has more value the the Padres than Iglesias.
3. if any additional money is spent ... the higher priority upgrades are likely: LF; bottom of the rotation SP; and 1B/DH.

Wrong time for Iglesias.

Cronenworth can't hit lefties. Bogaerts has missed time or been hampered by injuries the last 2 years. Same goes for Manny. The way the team is currently constructed it looks like they'll rotate guys through at DH. Rosario could end up in the OF. Wade is a pinch runner and defensive replacement. Brosseau couldn't make it out of the minors with the same organization as Iglesias last year. I wouldn't want any of them filling in long term if there was an injury in the middle infield. We certainly have more pressing needs, but this team could absolutely use Iglesias at the right price.

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2025, 8:59 am

Just saw a rumor/speculation that suggests a trade of Cease to the NYM or MINN is not advancing with the Padres asking for more than either are willing (or able) to make.

However, it seems that a deal with the Cubs has life ... and MAY be expanded to include Suarez so that Padres can get the return desired (that does NOT include Shaw who is not being moved by the CUBS). Move Cease and Suarez for some top prospects to fill some needs an drops payroll just under $24MM leaving money to enter the FA market (maybe to the $14MM level to fill the remaining holes).

Using last year and the Burnes deal ... Cease should be a two Top 100 prospect return ... and Suarez and that may move to two "better" Top 100 or a 3rd low end Top (or just missed).

Why would that make sense for the Cubs ... first they are built to win now and have a strong roster while having 7 prospects in the Top 100 ... 6 of them have hit AAA and are blocked for now from the ML.

Took a look at the new Top 100 for 2025 for the Cubs:

19 Shaw (he is just not being traded, so pass)

52 Horton (RHP) (a must get to step into the Padres rotation to in part backfill Cease)

54 Cassie (LHH OF) (I will pass since his hit skill / high K% is worrisome)

69 Ballestarios (LHH 1B/C) (on the bubble as he is a poor defensive option but an plus hitter ... maybe as a DH/1B option)

73 Triantos (RHH 2B/OF) (plus hitter, little power ... could step in at 2B leaving Cronenworth at 1B / Arraez DH OR be LF ... he does have speed)

90 Alcantara (RHH OF) (4.5 tools with some question as to his ceiling as for average hitter ... but clearly an immediate fill for a need)

97 Rojas (INF in A+) (something for the future)

So in a Cease/Suarez deal and Shaw off the table ... I would have Horton the the must then a debate between two good hitters in Ballestros (limited defensively) or Triantos (limited power but can help defensively) .. pretty sure Preller would have a preference. Then if a third piece ????? Negotiation to get a "best return" for the Padres may also require a Padre prospect or two added (basically a mega player deal which is well in Preller's wheelhouse.

Bit surprised no rumors currently surround BALT or BOST.