Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2025, 8:35 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 21, 2025, 7:55 am

Looks like the Dodgers are signing Kirby Yates now too.

Trade value of Suarez just rose!

Quote from Alex Tamayo on January 21, 2025, 8:40 am

After I read that they almost signed Yates before the Tanner Scott deal was announced, I was wondering If they would still dare to also sign Yates.

Now that they mostly have an all star roster, If they have a fast start do you guys think there would be less interest from fans around the league to follow MLB baseball?

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2025, 9:04 am

Quote from Alex Tamayo on January 21, 2025, 8:40 am

After I read that they almost signed Yates before the Tanner Scott deal was announced, I was wondering If they would still dare to also sign Yates.

Now that they mostly have an all star roster, If they have a fast start do you guys think there would be less interest from fans around the league to follow MLB baseball?

Probably not in the 5 other ML Divisions and teams still shooting for the playoffs ... baseball is very "local". Maybe some national TV issue if the media just focuses on the LAD but if they "ignore" them in favor of the NYY, NYM etc, should hold up. Should be a lot of rhetoric on toppling the big spender in the playoffs to win the WS.

The NL West may be a different story if SD, AZ, SF, and COLO our way out of the picture early and their fans / attendance may implode if not a clear contender for a Wild Card.

Again more NL West centric but if the other teams are looking to be out of the wild card (or even just a long shot) ... and with maybe little chance of displacing the LAD in 2026 ... might see a trade deadline (or earlier) move to a sell mode of players. Not great for the sellers but may actually boosts the fan support for the buyers ... SD, AZ, SF all have some quality that would entice teams / fans.

However, in the longer term, if the LAD blow through multiple WS championships ... then might see a drop in fan interest on the margin. If the league sees that, might be a real battle in 2027 for CBA changes intended on muting the LAD (or any other big spender) advantages. Would think a large number of team owners might see a lowering of team value if fan interest wanes ... and that motivates them to ensure that does not happen (or motivates them to sell).

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 21, 2025, 10:32 am

What do you guys think is the chance AJ "doesn't" trade one of Arraez,Suarez or Cease?

20%?

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 21, 2025, 11:22 am

I'm starting to think the best course of action might be to effectively "punt" 2025. If you want to keep Arraez and King around offer them modest extensions. Otherwise trade all of the free agents to be plus Peralta and Cronenworth if you can find takers. Get as much young cheap major league or near major league ready talent as you can. Use the savings to extend Merrill and maybe Morejon. Let Morejon, Hoeing, Kolek, Waldron, Vasquez, Cruz, Brito and any arms you acquire compete for rotation spots. See if guys like Reynolds, Cosgrove, and Jacob are ready for bigger roles in the bullpen knowing that guys like Pena, Rodriguez, and Neighbors should be pushing for the big leagues.

On the position players side let Campusano sink or swim. Find out if Ornelas, Rosario and Lockridge are ready for bigger roles.

In free agency see if you can find guys who are forced to take bargain deals late or look at cheap bounce back candidates. Maybe look at 2 year deals for guys like John Means or Jose Urquidy that might help you in 2026 at a low AAV.

It's clear we aren't going to compete with the Dodgers financially in a post Peter Seidler world. We're going to need young players to emerge to have a chance. Use 2025 to try to find some and better position the team financially moving forward when guys like Salas and De Vries might be ready.

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2025, 11:27 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 21, 2025, 10:32 am

What do you guys think is the chance AJ "doesn't" trade one of Arraez,Suarez or Cease?

20%?

 

Closer to 2% ... at least before the trade deadline. Padres need to fill some holes and (in my view) have to lower payroll (even it is only to spend on other FA). Don't believe in a scenario that move their Cash payroll above the current $208MM.

Hard to see them moving Cease (just under $14MM) since if they want to make the playoffs ... going down to two reliable SP (King and Darvish) and then fall into the abyss of non ML gambles just does not work.

Easy to see them move Suarez ($10MM) since there is a clear demand for RP (closer) and Padres have decent backfill internally. Hopefully the return includes a league minimum type that upgrades a current need. I give a deal of Suarez in the > 90% level.

That leaves a question with Arraez ($14MM). Is there a demand? At what return? How to backfill if he is moved? Tie those questions with where the Padres' cash payroll needs to end up at.  He is more in the 50/50.

 

Quote from ultratvfan on January 21, 2025, 11:42 am

Quote from Alex Tamayo on January 17, 2025, 3:39 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2025, 3:13 pm

SASAKI = LAD

funny thing Is that the bums don't even need him, they probably were more interested in keeping him away from other teams.

I agree. They have ton of quality starters: Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Stone, May, Glasnow, Wrobleski, Grove, Knack, Gonsolin and Ryan. Roki makes 12.  There will be 14 if free agents Kershaw and Flaherty re-sign. I miss anyone.

They signed him so no one else could have him. That is not right.

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2025, 11:44 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 21, 2025, 11:22 am

I'm starting to think the best course of action might be to effectively "punt" 2025. If you want to keep Arraez and King around offer them modest extensions. Otherwise trade all of the free agents to be plus Peralta and Cronenworth if you can find takers. Get as much young cheap major league or near major league ready talent as you can. Use the savings to extend Merrill and maybe Morejon. Let Morejon, Hoeing, Kolek, Waldron, Vasquez, Cruz, Brito and any arms you acquire compete for rotation spots. See if guys like Reynolds, Cosgrove, and Jacob are ready for bigger roles in the bullpen knowing that guys like Pena, Rodriguez, and Neighbors should be pushing for the big leagues.

On the position players side let Campusano sink or swim. Find out if Ornelas, Rosario and Lockridge are ready for bigger roles.

In free agency see if you can find guys who are forced to take bargain deals late or look at cheap bounce back candidates. Maybe look at 2 year deals for guys like John Means or Jose Urquidy that might help you in 2026 at a low AAV.

It's clear we aren't going to compete with the Dodgers financially in a post Peter Seidler world. We're going to need young players to emerge to have a chance. Use 2025 to try to find some and better position the team financially moving forward when guys like Salas and De Vries might be ready.

Agree in part ... I am more aligned with punting on 2026 given all the FA (which they cannot financially re-sign) and no major prospect ready to step up in 2026 ... then the topping is the probably 2027 work stoppage resulting in some unknown set of rules.

The line I walk on 2025 is that I think even at this point they have a roster that can contend for a playoff spot and with "minor" tinkering (and some luck) can up-end others in the playoffs. Push against that is the cash payr0ll limit. So, maybe some trades work to make the payroll and fill some holes without depleting everyone. Do have to gamble on players like Ornelas, Rosario, Reynolds, etc. Make a shot for a last hurrah and if faltering ... trade at deadline.

However, IF Preller cannot work out deals to fill out the roster with some strategic trades and "bargain" FA filler by the middle of ST ... maybe that that point flip and move just to clear payroll ... get some deeper down prospects ... by the end of ST or during the season, whichever, yield the better return.

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2025, 11:50 am

Quote from ultratvfan on January 21, 2025, 11:42 am

Quote from Alex Tamayo on January 17, 2025, 3:39 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2025, 3:13 pm

SASAKI = LAD

funny thing Is that the bums don't even need him, they probably were more interested in keeping him away from other teams.

I agree. They have ton of quality starters: Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Stone, May, Glasnow, Wrobleski, Grove, Knack, Gonsolin and Ryan. Roki makes 12.  There will be 14 if free agents Kershaw and Flaherty re-sign. I miss anyone.

They signed him so no one else could have him. That is not right.

I don't agree ... they did really want him ... an elite young SP controlled for 6 years at minimum cost is a business move that really plays well for their future (not only on the field but for marketing). Makes it easier to trade the other "lesser" arms (for more talent at a lower cost). Have to take the 6 years business perspective to understand how much the LAD coveted Sasaki.

Keeping him away from another team is just a side benefit ... but not the driver.