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2024-25 Offseason Talk
#351 · January 19, 2025, 1:40 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2025, 10:42 amMay depending on how well Salas and DeVries progress this year.
Along with Lowe,Nett,Peña,Neighbors,etc.
All won’t be ready by Opening day ‘26 but some could….and we would also have $ to spend.
Too early to say we have dollars to spend (or at least a lot) next winter until we get a reading from the Padres on how they want to approach the 2027 work stoppage. Clearly starting point will be a much lower payroll with the departures of Arraez, Cease, King, Suarez, Peralta. If they see a 2026 with a SP of an aging Darvish and a returning from TJ Musgrove (usually not immediately back to form) not being enough to contend ... might not spend just to fall short.
I doubt either Salas or DeVries will blossom enough in 2025 to become clear ML options to start 2026 and then why would they be a mid-season call-up for a non-playoff team vs keeping them in the minors to play the start of 2027 ... neither need to be added to the 40 man in 2026 (also goes for Tears and Neighbors). If the team is clearly a playoff team ... doing that without the kids ... no need to add them.
However, a long list of decent prospects that need to be on the 40 man by Dec 2026 to protect from Rule 5 ... in 2026 (Lowe and King) but the list for Dec 2025 includes Nett, Lizarraga, Haynes, Pena, Rodriguez, and Paplham to bolster the pitching in 2026. No idea of their impact. the only bat is R.Sanabria (1B) and some question as to his ability to hit at the higher levels. Maybe a 40 man roster issue next winter.
If 2027 is a non-season ... and the Padres focus on contending in 2028 with the current core offense still in tact and a well prepared Salas and DeVries ... and maybe Tears just might not focus any long term major spending on offense even for 2026. Beyond the arms likely arriving in 2026 by 2028 (3 more full years of development) have a chance of getting SP impact from top prospects: Mayfield; Bateman; and H. Cruz.
If money is a short run issue ... 2027 is a lost season ... can't realistically replace the production of the players departing after 2025 ... the best "business" strategy may be to focus on setting up the best 2028 team and punt on 2026 after "holding" on the as much of the current roster as possible for 2025 as a last hurrah playoff run.
With that as a backdrop ... IF was willing to spend on keeping a FA it probably would be King ... risk being a pitcher but the need of SP is apparently the short and medium term problem. $23-28MM AAV (that would represent a payroll upward pressure of $15-20MM) offsetting the loss of Cease and part of Arraez. Downside is he is a pitcher with risk of injury and what should be his more productive years would be a potentially wasted on 2026-27.
Basically we are hitting the point where the "all in to win now" approach of the past 2-3 seasons ... burning the farm system and paying big for long term contracts ... is coming due both financially and talent-wise. So, maybe a two year regroup is called for to let the prospects arrive with some impact and to understand / integrate the new rules of the new CBA. Maybe that also serves to stabilize the financial position of the club that will allow them to augment the new prospects with some additional spending on veterans (or secure long term Merrill and any prospect that really emerges).
#352 · January 19, 2025, 4:01 pm
Orioles, Red Sox, and Blue Jays were all interested in Tanner Scott ... considering what he signed for probably were going in with a big contract (just not that big). Suggest they are truly motivated for a closer type. Enter a "bargain" in Suarez committing only 1 year and $10MM and consider those three teams are all competitors in the AL East were adding a Suarez not only helps them but does not allow the others to get him (might jack up the price).
Suarez is a fit for all three ... what do you think we can get as a return? Both BALT and BOST have strong farm systems with multiple prospects ML ready and overlapping roles with each other and the ML incumbents. Possible to land an OF/DH or middle INF ML ready?
#353 · January 19, 2025, 7:23 pm
Word is Bos offered Scott more years and more per.
dodgers loading up has top players falling in their laps now
#354 · January 20, 2025, 8:04 am
What is the view of Heston Kjerstand (26) LF/RF/1B/DH ... LHH .. "was" a top prospect but has been (and appears to be in 2025) on the bench (or in the minors) for BALT ... depth charts have Cowser - Mullins - O'Neill ahead of him in the OF and Mountcastle at 1B ... O'Hearn at DH. Add that their two top prospects are ML ready (Mayo and Basallo) are 1B/DH types.
He could be consider "excess" in BALT a team we have identified that wants a closer now. If so, could a trade be constructed around Suarez for Kjerstand ... not sure what (if anything) and to be added either way to balance the deal out.
Padres need a LF and DH ... so Kjerstand (who is a good hitter) is at league minimum and is controlled for 6 years could be a good add ... along with clearing $10MM in payroll.
#355 · January 20, 2025, 8:11 am
Along the same lines ... if they deal with BOST ... opinion of LF Abreu (LHH). He is very likely to get bumped by one of the top prospects in baseball ... Roman Anthony.
Note: I really don't see TOR having much to trade.
#356 · January 21, 2025, 5:24 am
I prefer Abreu.....probably not getting him one for one for Suarez though....might have to get creative
#357 · January 21, 2025, 6:21 am
I would think that we see something like Suarez for Kjerstand, Arreaz and Peralta for Stroman and some money, a trade for Vasquez from MIN, and then a Profar signing.
Kjerstand for 1B, Crone at 2B, Bogaerts at SS, Machado at 3B. Profar in LF, Merrill in CF, and Tatis in CF. Maldanaldo and Vasquez spilt C.
#358 · January 21, 2025, 7:17 am
Quote from BoosterSD on January 21, 2025, 6:21 amI would think that we see something like Suarez for Kjerstand, Arreaz and Peralta for Stroman and some money, a trade for Vasquez from MIN, and then a Profar signing.
Kjerstand for 1B, Crone at 2B, Bogaerts at SS, Machado at 3B. Profar in LF, Merrill in CF, and Tatis in CF. Maldanaldo and Vasquez spilt C.
I approve these moves.....:)
#359 · January 21, 2025, 7:48 am
Quote from BoosterSD on January 21, 2025, 6:21 amI would think that we see something like Suarez for Kjerstand, Arreaz and Peralta for Stroman and some money, a trade for Vasquez from MIN, and then a Profar signing.
Kjerstand for 1B, Crone at 2B, Bogaerts at SS, Machado at 3B. Profar in LF, Merrill in CF, and Tatis in CF. Maldanaldo and Vasquez spilt C.
End state is good but just don't see the Padres adding the contracts of Stroman and/or Vasquez even if they reduce payroll by dealing Arraez and Peralta ... plus doubt MINN really wants to eat any money.
Actually beginning to think they will not re-sign Profar unless the current payroll level is lower by $20-30MM first. So, more likely deals for league minimum types / prospects using Suarez, Peralta, Arraez (and/or maybe Croneworth) to set the new base before considering Profar. Probably need Profar to accept a creative contract that minimizes 2025 Cash.
We don't know but I keep thinking the 2025 Cash budget will sit round $186MM (that is +$17MM ... 10% over 2024). At $208MM, so looking for a drop of $22MM before any above minimum FA signings or trade adds.
#360 · January 21, 2025, 7:51 am
Did hear some commentary on Stroman ... not about his ability to return to his former form but about his somewhat negative / complaining personality that can wear on the clubhouse. Just a factor in any decision ... if even in play for the Padres.