Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2025, 5:55 am

On to Plan B

So with no Sasaki what are we thinking?

Trade Arraez to free up $ for Profar?

Trade Arraez to NYY in a deal for Stroman?

Trade Suarez also?

Guessing with no Ace at league minimum we hold onto Cease?

 

What are the chances AJ just says “F it!” And trades Cease/Suarez/Arraez?

I mean….we could win 100+ games in 2025 and still be the Wild Card

We just need to have the 6th best record in the NL no matter the win total at this point……

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2025, 8:05 am

Just getting ridiculous ... LAD signing Tanner Scott for $72MM/4 years ($18MM AAV).

I guess in one respect that already had a roster that was far above the rest ... so does that do much to change their chances to win ... probably not BUT it keeps Scott away from some other contender to the Padres for a playoff slot ... so this actually IMPROVES the Padres chances for the playoffs.

Also an $18MM AAV almost guarantees Suarez opting out after 2025 as his salary DROPS from $10MM to $8MM. Given that "known" ... may do a lot to set his trade value.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 19, 2025, 8:09 am

Of the guys we're rumored to be open to moving I think Cease is the only one with enough value to bring back a return that might help fill multiple spots. I would look at teams like the Rangers, Cubs and Red Sox who have lots of good young players or upper level prospects for a Soto lite type of trade. I could see Suarez potentially being packaged in that type of deal since all those teams could use a good bullpen arm.

On his own I don't think Suarez has much trade value. There are still lots of options left on the market and I think teams will be scared off by his player option. He could get moved on his own just to free up the money to reallocate elsewhere. We do seem to have good bullpen depth. I just wouldn't expect much of a return and they may have to wait for more options to come off the market.

I don't think Arraez would bring back much either. Looking at what Josh Naylor and Nate Lowe brought back I wouldn't expect Arraez to command much more. There's also just not much left on the market to replace him with. If they could get someone like Casas in a Cease deal then they could move him. As things stand I think he's more likely to stay.

I'm sure they would love to move Cronenworth. I'm just not sure there's much of a market for him. If they don't have to give up too much to do it I expect they'll move Peralta.

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2025, 8:19 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2025, 5:55 am

On to Plan B

So with no Sasaki what are we thinking?

Trade Arraez to free up $ for Profar?

Trade Arraez to NYY in a deal for Stroman?

Trade Suarez also?

Guessing with no Ace at league minimum we hold onto Cease?

 

What are the chances AJ just says “F it!” And trades Cease/Suarez/Arraez?

I mean….we could win 100+ games in 2025 and still be the Wild Card

We just need to have the 6th best record in the NL no matter the win total at this point……

 

 

 

Plan B hinges on that unknown payroll target for 2025 ... seems clear that net of all the future moves results in a lower cash payroll (which should clear the CBT issue). How much lower?????

Salaries out ... league minimums in while keeping what I think is currently a legit playoff contender still a playoff contender is a Herculean challenge for Preller.

The easiest first step is dealing Suarez and Peralta to clear $14.5MM ... a lot of demand for RP (and now with Scott off the table the supply is reduced) ... Padres have decent replacement options (Adams, Estrada, Reynolds) ... after that ????? if those trades don't make the payroll target.

Although every indication is that Preller would like to extend Arraez but could see if some additional payroll reductions are needed ... could trade Arraez (exposing 1B) and clear $14MM ... sign Profar (1B?) on a creative contract with a low 2025 and a more robust 2026 and beyond (maybe a 3 year deal considering not much coming in system in that timeframe). Note: Preller may believe he can re-sign Arraez as a FA next offseason.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2025, 8:31 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 19, 2025, 8:09 am

Of the guys we're rumored to be open to moving I think Cease is the only one with enough value to bring back a return that might help fill multiple spots. I would look at teams like the Rangers, Cubs and Red Sox who have lots of good young players or upper level prospects for a Soto lite type of trade. I could see Suarez potentially being packaged in that type of deal since all those teams could use a good bullpen arm.

On his own I don't think Suarez has much trade value. There are still lots of options left on the market and I think teams will be scared off by his player option. He could get moved on his own just to free up the money to reallocate elsewhere. We do seem to have good bullpen depth. I just wouldn't expect much of a return and they may have to wait for more options to come off the market.

I don't think Arraez would bring back much either. Looking at what Josh Naylor and Nate Lowe brought back I wouldn't expect Arraez to command much more. There's also just not much left on the market to replace him with. If they could get someone like Casas in a Cease deal then they could move him. As things stand I think he's more likely to stay.

I'm sure they would love to move Cronenworth. I'm just not sure there's much of a market for him. If they don't have to give up too much to do it I expect they'll move Peralta.

Sort of agree except the initial focus for Preller may have to be payroll reduction over return. To that end, may find a decent market for all the above if not demanding a high return in players.

At this point, trading one of the two most marketable pieces ... Cease or King ... would probably knock the Padres out of playoff contention with only Darvish and one of Cease or King in the rotation. Everyone that follows are barely (if at all) ML quality for a #5 SP.

Sort of the same problem with dealing Cronenworth or Arraez ... have no replacements close to their production while their player returns would be minimal.

Sort of siting with the thought that any trade of a regular will result in a lesser team.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2025, 8:57 am

The dodgers are at the point now that they can trade Gonsolin/Stone/Miller etc for prospects and not miss a beat.

Our only hope is the next CBA after 2026 does something to curb spending of the top revenue teams.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2025, 9:23 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2025, 8:57 am

The dodgers are at the point now that they can trade Gonsolin/Stone/Miller etc for prospects and not miss a beat.

Our only hope is the next CBA after 2026 does something to curb spending of the top revenue teams.

 

Agree on LAD on positioned to deal "excess" for either prospects or maybe even for upgrades to their 26 man roster ... either way jus solidifies their potential long term dominance.

The next CBA will be really contentious. Note that Manfred is already in "negotiations" to get teams with major local media packages to "share" more of the largess with the rest of the league ... for the good of the league trying for the NFL model ... good luck even for a partial change.

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2025, 9:52 am

Consensus is that there will be a 2027 work stoppage as the CBA end. Could be a long contentious one.

So, could that potential for a major work stoppage (meaning less revenues for the clubs along with less expenses but a net negative for the clubs' cash flow given the other non-salary costs remain) result in some different strategies with rosters in 2025 and 2026 for at least the less financially healthy clubs. Do they need / want to minimize cash out now to build a reserve for the work stoppage shortfalls? Probably does not change the LAD, NYM types but others?

So, still assuming the Padres want to contend in 2025 based on a very strong core BUT envision a major drop in 2026 with the FA (Cease, King, Arraez) and the opt outs (Suarez, Peralta) ... that will be a $50MM drop in 2026 and without much arriving at low cost to replace them ... a good chance the Padres cease to be legit contenders in 2026.

If that is what is envisioned ... and don't translate that into spending more than current in 2025 ... could they achieve the lower spending by really punting on 2026 and not reduce to the initial 2025 as much as needed in order to preserve a final hurrah in 2025? Still move Suarez / Peralta and get down to $193MM cash had hold there even if the stand alone target is a 10% increase to $186MM. Basically can they carry that extra $7MM spending forward from 2026 ... lower 2026.

Also, might be strategic to not put any top prospect on the 40 man (unless have to for Rule 5 considerations) until the work stoppage is over. As I recall (assuming nothing new in recent minor league decisions) players not on the 40 man can still play (and develop) in the minors BUT if on the 40 man ML roster they are under the CBA and will not be able to play. Might see this surface in late 2026 if the team is struggling and prospects are hot in the minors ... there will be demands (by the fans) to add some the the roster ... front office may see them not being 2026 game changers and believe a 2027 of development in the minors will yield a better post work stoppage player for the majors.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2025, 10:42 am

May depending on how well Salas and DeVries progress this year.

Along with Lowe,Nett,Peña,Neighbors,etc.

All won’t be ready by Opening day ‘26 but some could….and we would also have $ to spend.