Quote from WindsorUK on January 17, 2025, 6:31 pm

Do we now keep Arraez and Cease, sign Profar and re-run last year?

Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2025, 6:50 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 17, 2025, 6:31 pm

Do we now keep Arraez and Cease, sign Profar and re-run last year?

Going to be more complicated than that IF the Padres stick with all the reports that they plan to be under the CBT (they are over by $2MM). First they need to drop salary before they add any (low cost) FA.

Seems that they need to move one (or more) of Arraez, Cease, Suarez, and maybe Cronenworth (if they can find a buyer) before adding anyone like Profar and meet the payroll plan. Hopefully the not only shed payroll but get a useful piece in return.

Quote from WindsorUK on January 17, 2025, 7:38 pm

Still rather shocked Suarez is still here. Plenty of options to close. $10 million much better allocated elsewhere.

Gotta be the first chip to play.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2025, 4:02 am

Although the Padres have some real upgrade needs ... still think this current roster (now with full health) is still a legit contender and although would love to add some more blockbuster pieces more likely the upgrades only need to be ML quality nearing "average" players. So no "panic" moves.

Based on earlier reports the Padres are committed to stay under the CBT (don't know how much under) but currently $2MM over plus need to make additional room for the inevitable roster adds during the season to cover injuries (players move for low minor league contracts to MLB minimum) plus some accommodation if they want to add at the trade deadline.

Agree that Suarez ($10MM) and Peralta ($4.5MM) have the best chance to be covered internally while being RP have a legitimate market for their skills at their prices. Both can opt out after 2025 which tempers their trade values but moving them would work for the CBT need.

Now we enter the real unknown as to what the CASH payroll target is (and clearly Preller has one).. If Suarez and Peralta are moved cash payroll drops to about $194MM ... and that is still a $25MM increase over 2024. If that is still too much they have to turn to trading Arraez or Cease (either would create a new deeper hole) or they may choose to trade to get a piece in return for the roster and make room for signing someone like Profar ... basically go down one to add tow or more.

Although he would yield the best return, with Boras as his agent unlikely to re-sign with the Padres (easily a long contact at $25MM+ AAV) can't see trading Cease and still be a contender leaving only King and Darvish as established ML upper rotation SP. Can't see them trading King either given the lack of SP depth.

So that may get them down to moving Arraez even though there are some indications that the Padres would like to actually extend him plus losing him as a lead-off hitter (without any visible replacement in the line-up) would really hurt the offense. Not likely to generate a ML quality return (just use what the Padres gave up for him ... and 2 year control ... as a guide). Sort of a similar issue if they try to move Cronenworth whose remaining 6 year deal is hard to move even though at $12MM in this era is reasonable for a 2 WAR player (and as one analyst suggested a 3 WAR player if he returned to 2B where his offense would be more valuable).

A very good chance the Padres enter the season with the current roster less Suarez and Peralta ...

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2025, 6:12 am

Wonder what the dodgers offered “under the table”.

In the unusual case like this of a $300 mil prospect willing to play for league minimum you have to wonder if there are under the table shenanigans going on.

Maybe some choice real estate in Pacific Palisades?

$50 million paid out in 2050?

😉

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2025, 6:33 am

Given the Padres roster situation overall and once they get past King, Cease, and Darvish ... looking like Waldron and Vasquez. Not sure any clear cut other options to beat them out internally. Sure may look at Hoeing, Brito, Kolek, Nunez, or Morejon but their histories don't inspire.

I guess one strategy Preller may have to consider is promoting a "not quite ready" prospect mid-season after a half of season further development. That of course depends on how Preller evaluates these prospects for any 2025 ML value. Need to tread water for a few months with Waldron and Vasquez but not many options.

Consider the 2025 mid-season potential of prospects: Baez (5); Lizarraga (9); Nett (20); Haynes (21); Cruz (22); Bergert (25); and Krob (27). Clearly all will not be ML ready in 2025 (or maybe ever) but only need one or two to be better than Waldron / Vasquez to improve the team.

Any guess as to who rises to the role of first prospect up?

Quote from brent wolff on January 18, 2025, 6:35 am

I hate to say it, but Saski's arm has been protected throughout his career, but it seems to me that a lot more of the LAD pitchers go down with arm injuries than other teams do.  I'm not wishing an arm injury on RS, I just don't understand how Saski and his agent didn't consider this factor more importantly.   Ugh!  I can't stand the evil empire of the Dog-ers!  They are even a bigger dragon to slay now.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2025, 6:50 am

Similar debate on the offense.

The good is seven starting slots are locked in: Tatis; Merrill; Machado; Bogaerts; Cronenworth; Arraez; and Campusano / Maldonado (likely). So, only LF and DH are "open".

Roster options include Wade (L), Rosario, Ornelas (L), Rosario, and Sullivan (L) ... but expect a DFA of Sullivan when Maldonado is added. Out of that group might get OK performance out of Ornelas or Rosario but no lock.

Non-roster options for LF/DH include Brosseau (had his ML moments), Gonzalez (had a good season in the ML a few seasons back), and Perlaza (switch hitter returning from Korea ... has power). Not sure I see anyone else internally.

However, there are a ton of low end FA still unsigned ... so would expect a few last moment signing to minor league / invite to ST deals ... low cost if makes ML roster. Maybe fine the next Solano or D. Peralta. If other thinks fall right ... adding Profar for LF would really solidify the starting lineup.

That mix could be enough to legitimately compete for the playoffs with healthy full seasons out of Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, and Arraez who were all significantly injured during 2024.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2025, 7:03 am

Quote from brent wolff on January 18, 2025, 6:35 am

I hate to say it, but Saski's arm has been protected throughout his career, but it seems to me that a lot more of the LAD pitchers go down with arm injuries than other teams do.  I'm not wishing an arm injury on RS, I just don't understand how Saski and his agent didn't consider this factor more importantly.   Ugh!  I can't stand the evil empire of the Dog-ers!  They are even a bigger dragon to slay now.

I tend to agree but they could have seen LAD moving to a 6 man rotation to address usage issues for Sasaki and Ohtani / Yamamoto ... they have the arms to do that plus that approach may benefit the injury history pitchers. Given the depth of pitching ... they could see the LAD let him skip starts initially to preserve his arm.

Might see SD or TOR as teams that will have to use him as their front line starter (now and the next few years) to the detriment of his arm.

I don't have an issue with his choice (from his perspective) ... he goes to a well financed team that is currently built to be a playoff team / WS team for the whole of his 6 control years ... he sits down the list of "stars" so will settle in to a low profile slot with the media ... pitching depth should preserve his arm ... having two Japanese stars near in age on the team gives him a better transition to the US ... and projecting near the end of his control period the LAD have the funds to give him the mega extension to satisfy his long term goal.

As a SD fan, don't love the decision but I can see from Sasaki's perspective (and his total criteria) the LAD make sense.