Quote from ultratvfan on January 12, 2025, 1:13 am

FA RP Jeff Hoffman signs with Blue Jays for 3-years, $33 million. He is a good pitcher to get.

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 12, 2025, 4:31 am

Hoffman was an interesting get...had a deal with the Orioles 3 years / 40 million dollars and the Orioles back out of it after a physical showed something in his throwing shoulder that gave them enough concern to pull the plug on the deal...13.3 million a year so he settles for the team that originally drafted him...3 years / 33 million with incentive that could total 6 million...this year is a 5 million signing bonus, 6 million salary and 11 million salary for 2025 and 2026...incentives are 500K for pitching 60, 70, 80and 90 innings each year...up to 2 million per year for 3 years. Right now he is slated for the bullpen so the incentives are no sure thing unless he was to make the jump as a starter and then he might eat up some innings and reach his incentives but I'll be curious to see if Baltimore's concern was valid or if they just got buyer's remorse and used his physical as a way out.

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2025, 8:06 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 12, 2025, 4:31 am

Hoffman was an interesting get...had a deal with the Orioles 3 years / 40 million dollars and the Orioles back out of it after a physical showed something in his throwing shoulder that gave them enough concern to pull the plug on the deal...13.3 million a year so he settles for the team that originally drafted him...3 years / 33 million with incentive that could total 6 million...this year is a 5 million signing bonus, 6 million salary and 11 million salary for 2025 and 2026...incentives are 500K for pitching 60, 70, 80and 90 innings each year...up to 2 million per year for 3 years. Right now he is slated for the bullpen so the incentives are no sure thing unless he was to make the jump as a starter and then he might eat up some innings and reach his incentives but I'll be curious to see if Baltimore's concern was valid or if they just got buyer's remorse and used his physical as a way out.

as I recall, BALT has a history of being very very strict on medicals ... so maybe not a big red flag. Yet, still a red flag when considering a 3 year deal of that kind of guaranteed money when maybe need room to pay some of their other players down the road.

TOR has a lot more money to gamble with.

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2025, 8:45 am

While waiting on the Sasaki decision ... been scratching my head on the Padres' following moves under the expectation that the payroll will be lower than currently set. To set the table:

CASH: $208MM (per Roster Resource) ... that is a $39MM (23%) INCREASE of 2024's $169MM.

CBT: $243MM ... that is $2MM over the 2025 threshold of $241MM.

Over this winter a number of reports suggest that the Padres are committed NOT to exceed the CBT. Other reports suggest the plan to increase CASH payroll SLIGHTLY (no idea how much that translates into).

So, somewhat safe to assume that the Padres will have to reduce the current payroll by some amount just to make budget ... then reduce even more IF they want to add anyone who costs above league minimum. That might explain the fact that the Padres have signed no ML FA yet and may suggest they will not until AFTER payroll reductions are made.

Anyone want to guess what the Padres CASH budget bogey is? Not what we want or what we think they should spend ... but what we guess they will spend.

I am working with an increase of only $17MM (10%) +/- and that would require player moves dropping about $22MM before any adds.

For me ... again probably not wish list stuff like Bogearts ... starts with Suarez ($10MM) and Peralta ($4.5MM) getting the nut down to $7.5MM. At that point may be a choice between Arraez and Cease (both around $14MM) opening up money to sign some FA (Profar, Diaz, ?). Here is where Sasaki's signing (or not) will strongly impact the decision. Also, who each would generate as a return that impacts 2025 needs is a factor.

Are the Padres a stronger team for the 162 game schedule with:

SP: King, Sasaki, Darvish, TBD, TBD (Cease)

Offense: Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Campusano, TBD, TBD, TBD (Arraez)

If only one TBD can be replaced by either Cease or Arraez ... who is better for the team?

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2025, 9:01 am

If CASH is the issue ... do you think Musgrove would re-negotiate his current deal to lower the 2025 $20MM for a more back loaded deal with a maybe an additional year added?

In the same vein, would any of Tatis, Bogaerts, or Machado re-work deals to move money out of 2025 to later years (and a few extra dollars)?

Also, thinking Profar here, could he sign a lower end 2025 deal with a series of higher end years for 2026-27 when a bit less strain on the payroll.

All are invested in the team's success and the Padres are in a good position to make the playoffs (with some complementary adds) and make a legit run for the WS. Clearly Machado and Bogaerts would benefit being in their prime for a WS run this early in their long term deals.

Just a thought on dealing with the cash issue while maintaining as much of the current roster as possible.

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 12, 2025, 4:43 pm

Just a follow up Fenn

sign profar and take a page out of the Dodgers playbook…profar signs for less upfront and defer money for a few years…4 or 5 with the idea that Hosmers money (12.75million) this year is off the books next season unless they are looking to use that amount to help pay Cease or King

If I’m a player I would take deferred salary for life after baseball

Quote from ultratvfan on January 12, 2025, 5:57 pm

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/san-diego-padres-news/padres-emerge-as-new-choice-to-land-roki-sasaki-among-executives-01jhbnggg91s

I hope that Darvish wanting Sasaki badly is a plus to land him.

Three days until international signing begins.

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 12, 2025, 6:07 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on January 12, 2025, 5:57 pm

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/san-diego-padres-news/padres-emerge-as-new-choice-to-land-roki-sasaki-among-executives-01jhbnggg91s

I hope the Darvish wanting Sasaki badly is a plus to land him.

Three days until international signing begins.

The drama and anticipation is palpable for sure 👍

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2025, 11:29 am

Sasaki's camp has said he will not announce a decision of the 15th ... so the tension will drag on.

Mets and Giants have said they have been told they are out of the running.

Padres and Dodgers have told other international FA that they are free to talk to other teams (or hold off until 2026) ... suggesting they both believe they are finalists.