Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2025, 1:26 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 9, 2025, 1:12 pm

I totally forgot Hoeing as a candidate for the rotation!

Do any of you think he has a legitimate chance as the 4/5?

As it stands today ... yes.

Vasquez and Waldron (the presumed incumbents) were below average starters in 2024 with Waldron having a terrible second half. So Hoeing, along with Morejon, Kolek, Brito, and maybe Baez will all get long looks.

If any of them look good they could get that shot. However, do expect some competition added (beyond Sasaki).

Quote from ultratvfan on January 9, 2025, 2:12 pm

I have heard talk of possibly signing LHSP Jose Quintana, who will be 36 this month.

https://www.newsweek.com/sports/mlb/padres-could-sign-16-million-left-handed-pitcher-fill-out-rotation-2011748

Quote from ultratvfan on January 9, 2025, 4:35 pm

Here are the deals that the Padres reached, per Feinsand:

• Arraez: $14 million
• Cease: $13.75 million
• Jason Adam: $4.8 million
• Luis Campusano: $1 million

Quote from Randy Manese on January 9, 2025, 5:31 pm

From what I saw projected on many sources, these arbitration amounts were either at or below the numbers expected.  Getting these done today vice exchanging numbers likely helps cool down the rhetoric about how the Padres ownership is in disarray, which could only help in our bid for Sasaki.  Further, it sets the price for Arraez and Cease, the latter a steal at 13.75M for a contending team, to lower the CBT/cash payroll and would allow the re-signing of Profar if both players (or other players) are traded.  My guess is that they want to do a long term deal with King but can't act until a few more dominos fall.  15 January is right around the corner...let's hope for the best for the Padres!

Quote from BoosterSD on January 9, 2025, 6:47 pm

For those of you that need something to hang your hopes on, read this about SD and Sasaki.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6045382/2025/01/08/roki-sasaki-team-odds-mlb/

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2025, 2:28 am

Looks like King and the Padres are a good bit apart.

Roster Resource estimated a $7.9MM

Padres offer $7.325 ($325K under)

King requests $8.8MM ($900K over)

Since the arbitrator has to pick one or the other ... and the teams win more that loses plus in this case the Padres are "closer" to the RR guess (which is usually pretty close) ... Padres may win on this unless a deal is struck before.

Side: we don't know what numbers were tossed back and forth during negotiations and when they agreed not to agree ... these are just what they put officially on the table.

$1.475MM is a pretty large gap when you consider the base.

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2025, 3:03 am

With the Sasaki decision next week ... spring training starting in next month ... should see some Padre movement of players reasonably soon after the Sasaki decision.

Still Sasaki is the pivot point in conjunction with whatever the payroll bogey is (just confident it is lower than today's $208 CASH). Note they are maybe $1-2MM over the CBT so reducing for the CASH bogey will result in going under the CBT easily.

I (pure optimist) think they sign Sasaki (league minimum in 2025). That sets up deals of Cease and Arraez ... and clear $27.750MM. The returns will be long control, league minimum players some (if not all) will ML/ML ready.

I would watch out for Arraez to the Mets for SS Acuna (plus a pitcher) and Cease to the Orioles for LF Kjerstand (plus a pitcher). In both cases the players are very good ML ready prospects at positions of need who are not projected as starters on their respective teams ... so "easier" for a trade acquisition.

At that point ... it may depend on where they stand vs the budget and their need to sign Profar (do think they spend some to sign a 2nd catcher .. not much on the market at this point). If they are there ... might go with trading Suarez ($10MM and a decent set of options in house) to make room to sign Profar (probably with a back loaded deal since CASH not CBT is the issue).

Agree they would like to extend King but that is a hard one to price out after only one season as a SP. If they can pull it off (and they do need to for 2026 and near term) ... same as Profar and structured with a backloaded deal to keep 2025 CASH at a minimum. CBT should not be an issue in the near term with the drops of Arraez, Cease, Suarez, and Hosmer ... can handle the ups from new contracts for King and Profar.

Just expect the opening day roster to be different (maybe significantly different) that today.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 10, 2025, 8:44 am

Basically, agree with all the points you make above with the caveats that ownership has to pay to play and the new CBA helps to make more teams competitive against those with seemingly infinite financial resources.

Also, I recall Preller saying that the Padres have several "plans" in play, a 1 year plan, a 3 year plan and a 5 year plan for constructing their roster.  The future, both immediate and 5 years from now, really depend upon their successful signing of Roki Sasaki.  His signing could allow the 4-5 year extension of King (predicting at least $8M, 16M, 20M, 20M and player option in 2029 for 25M) since Sasaki won't be a free agent until after the 2030 season.  By that time, the contracts of Musgrove and Darvish will have lapsed and we'll know whether any of our internal prospects have emerged as quality SP or Preller has traded to augment the SP staff - pitching will be the headliner for years to come.  Whatever King decides and whether Sasaki is going to be as good as we think will determine the next 4 years as some of the core hitters show their age while others like Merrill, Salas, DeVries and others replace them in prominence.

Agree that the Padres team roster we see today (10 January) will look a lot different on opening day and vastly different in 3 to 5 years.  Looking forward to many more years of legitimately fighting for a playoff spot and a real shot at the World Series - it's a dream of all us die-hard Padres fans.   GO PADRES!

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2025, 11:05 am

A King extension will hard to predict trying to balance the market (cost) and the 3, 5 year payroll plans ... along with the team's view of who may impact the ML SP out of the system in 3-5 years.

I see King holding out for a bit more than you suggested. Consider Manaea (33 for the coming season) signed for 3 years / $75MM ($25MM AAV) ... I can see King (who will be turning 30) holding out for a 5 year deal / $108MM ($8MM for the arb year and $25MM for the next FA years). If the Padres don't pay that soon ... has to test FA to see the real market next winter.

Of course we have no idea of the Padres payroll target for each of the next 5 years ... so have to look ahead to when Merrill and Sasaki start building salary via ARB plus factoring in built in salary increases for Machado (up $8MM in 2026 and another up of $14MM in 2027) and Tatis (up $11MM in 2029). Some of that is offset by letting both Musgrove (gone in 2028) and Darvish (gone in 2029). None of that considers other needed adds to make a complete competitive roster.

If they sign King have to expect them to let Arraez and Cease to go after the season (in not this winter) so can make the payroll target and/or redeploy for multiple adds to fill holes.

Although think both sides would like to make a deal ... it takes the right money ... and given Preller's success of adding "bargain" quality SP on short commitments (e.g. King ... Lugo ... Wacha ... Martinez ... Cease ... even Musgrove before the extension) not sure Preller will go that "extra mile" if it conflicts with the financial plan.