Quote from ultratvfan on December 31, 2024, 6:10 pm

The Padres have met with Roki Sasaki.

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/san-diego-padres-news/padres-take-huge-step-in-potentially-signing-roki-sasaki-01jgd81a79cq

Quote from fenn68 on January 2, 2025, 5:37 am

Two weeks until we learn the fate of Sasaki ... critical path for the Padres and likely is the pivot point for further Padres moves this winter.

Historically Preller is never in a hurry to make moves ... so maybe no moves until ST (which starts in about six weeks) and we may have to wait until late ST.

Even after the Sasaki issues is resolved ... we are in the dark on the target payroll. "Reports" have suggested that the Padres want a payroll below the luxury tax threshold (not too hard since only over by about $3MM after arb decisions). However, also "reported" that they only want a "slight" increase over the 2024 CASH payroll ($169MM) ... not idea what "slight" translates to in dollars but currently on a CASH basis after ARB they are $40MM up from 2024. Likely the resolution of the CASH payroll will automatically clear the CBT issue.

Sasaki comes in at league minimum is a positive payroll factor in construction the roster.

So it appears that the Padres will have to make some trades to reduce payroll first (how much?) before executing any FA signings (if any if they fill upgrades via the trades and gambles on who they have). Sort of a scenario given the current roster (especially if they sign Sasaki) that any FA will likely be complementary types at or near league minimum .. maybe at the last minute for ST.

Quote from fenn68 on January 2, 2025, 5:58 am

If they sign Sasaki ... even with holes on the 26 man (every team has holes) ... the current roster looks like a legit contender ... at least enough so to allow Preller to hold off on some moves until the trade deadline to target specific needs at that time and minimal cost. Consider:

Starting staff of King, Cease, Sasaki, Darvish should be one of the best in MLB ... they can survive a #5-6 with Waldron, Vasquez, or a TBD.

Relief pitching is stacked ... one of the best 1 through 8. (might be a good source of trade chips to fill outer needs and reduce payroll ... Suarez? Peralta?)

Offense is anchored by "All Stars" in Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Arraez ... six quality players in the starting line-up is better than most teams. The remaining three slots are needs ... gambles on internal options with C (Campusano / Sullivan), LF (Ornelas, Perlaza, Gonzalez, Lockridge), and DH (the LF candidates plus Rosario).

Without knowing the exact CASH payroll target ... I could see dealing Suarez / Peralta (lower CASH payroll about $14.5MM but still up from 2024 by about $25MM) and going with what they have ... at least to start the season.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 2, 2025, 7:18 am

Nothing has changed but with every passing day I'm less confident in Sasaki....not sure why.

On one hand the fact he's waiting is a good sign for us...but all teams have more money after the 15th so it may not be just about the Padres allotment resetting.

We need him desperately and "especially" if the alternative is he's a dodger at league minimum allowing them to continue to spend.

On the other it sure seems like our lack of moves is all hinged on the Jan 15th announcement.

May not be related at all but it sure seems like AJ is waiting for this one major chip to get in place before executing the rest of the off season plan.

Please be the case!

Quote from Randy Manese on January 2, 2025, 8:23 am

Preller is known for a couple of things: (1) often there are a flurry of moves within days of each other and (2) he doesn't tip his hand on specific trades in the fire.  In agreement that Preller wants the free agent market to play out a little more since he has some assets to trade that likely would only increase in value as ST gets closer.  If other teams believe the Padres are doing a mini-fire sale, the return for these assets will be much less even if there is some competition for them.  Further, in my opinion,, he doesn't want to set the bar for player salary in arbitration unless he absolutely has to - he'd rather trade a Cease or an Arraez and let the gaining team do that.  Since the exchange of arbitration numbers is around mid-January, this is another reason he's holding out to see the Roki Sasaki signing outcome.

What to remember about the latter is Sasaki, at this point in his life, is not in it for the money.  His agent says that Sasaki knows he is not a finished product yet he wants to create a legacy for the team that signs him.  My take of those statements is that Sasaki wants to go where he will be comfortable and where he will be confident that the team signing him will develop him to his full potential while ensuring his health to the best of their ability.  Sasaki can sign anywhere after 6 years, hence the 20 team vibe courtesy tour looking ahead to 2030 and beyond, when he will only be 29.  Sasaki and his agent have a frame of reference on what Niebla did with Lugo and King to increase their innings and make them highly successful.  They also were very impressed with how the Padres handled Yu's personal issue and did not leak a word of what it was or even where Yu was during his absence; that carries a lot of weight in the Japanese culture.  So, I like our chances but "It's not over until the fat lady sings!" and, hopefully, that will be in San Diego on 15 January 2025 with Roki Sasaki signing with the Padres.

Quote from fenn68 on January 2, 2025, 10:32 am

Agree on the assessment of Sasaki's motives behind who he signs with. Money (now) is not an issue ... otherwise he would have waited a couple of years before coming over to the US arriving when he could sign that mega contract.

Strategically, he probably wants a team that can best develop him and showcase his talent over the next six years for the big payday at that point (the Ohtani approach). Plus don't forget he likely be a very marketable player in Japan (big money endorsements). So positioning himself to be #1 SP on a team that makes the playoffs allows him to showcase at the highest level. That is good for his endorsements now and should elevate his leverage when he hits FA.

He may be better off being #1 on the Padres facing Ohtani - Yamamoto than #3 on the Dodgers and lost in the crowd.

I give the Padres a very good shot at signing him. (but usually too optimistic)

Quote from fenn68 on January 2, 2025, 11:07 am

I expect Preller has been (and will continue to) negotiating with the agents on the ARB players. Usually the "estimate" on Roster Resource is "close" ... off by a little that is likely too small to impact any trade (but yes there are exceptions with some players being way out of line with consensus). Preller has seems to resolve all those issue with going to ARB.

Sasaki resolution should be Jan 15 and exchanging ARB numbers I think is Jan 19 ... but still negotiation time until the hearings in February. I doubt it but maybe some team will want to see the player's ask before dealing.

Baring a real surprise ... the ARBs for Adam, Morejon, Campusano, and King probably will be non issues and not likely to give Preller any problem ... plus very unlikely they are targeted trade pieces by Preller (if first looking a payroll impact with minimal roster impact).

Arraez and Cease ... both project around $14-15MM and would have the most impact on the payroll target if traded. That money ... given what FA are signing for ... should be a non issue for any contender needing their skill sets.

If Preller is in a position that requires dealing one of them ... Sasaki signing is a key. Sign Sasaki and Cease is likely the best trade option of the two (although would worry about the move). If Sasaki does not sign ... may shift to Arraez as the trade piece. Remember the key is lowering payroll and the return is secondary.

Given all the teams that want/need a top of the rotation SP ... there will be completion given the FA market is almost over for top SP. Cease will deliver the better return ... maybe two plus prospects with at least one ready to step in the line-up (LF or SS).

If they have to shift to Arraez (reflecting on who the Padres dealt for Arraez) don't expect any ML ready pieces of any impact ... just save the money. If they only need part of the drop to meet the payroll target ... gives some room for filling needs with low cost FA (maybe someone like Diaz for C or Solano for DH.

I expect Preller knows his payroll bogey now ... and has multiple strategies depending on Sasaki (first) then the trade markets for current roster members. Clearly he has been "talking" to every GM to ascertain "interest" and availability of their players.

Do think Cease is at the most risk of being traded ... he will have a market ... should deliver the best player return of the Padre trade options ... his 1 year / $14MM+/- should not be an obstacle for a needy contender but may be a magnitude of salary that helps the Padres the most (in conjunction with the return). (Again Sasaki signing is the trigger here). May accelerate after Sasaki signing and Flaherty signing.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 2, 2025, 11:16 am

Money may not be the driving issue obviously but it is playing a role otherwise he would have signed in the '24 signing period.

I do wish he'd go ahead and announce even if he can't sign yet but I guess there's no advantage for him to do so now.

Just for Mr. P's well being

 

 

 

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 2, 2025, 11:36 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 2, 2025, 11:16 am

Money may not be the driving issue obviously but it is playing a role otherwise he would have signed in the '24 signing period.

I do wish he'd go ahead and announce even if he can't sign yet but I guess there's no advantage for him to do so now.

Just for Mr. P's well being

 

 

 

Xanax is making a killing of us right now