Quote from lafnboy13 on December 26, 2024, 6:07 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on December 26, 2024, 12:33 pm

Padres 2024 Free Agents update
C Elías Díaz (34)
C Kyle Higashioka (35) - signed with Rangers
SS Ha-Seong Kim (29) - declined option -we still don't know where he is going to land
SS Nick Ahmed (35)
IF Donavan Solano (37)
OF Jurickson Profar (32)
OF David Peralta (37)
SP LHP Martín Pérez (34)
RP LHP Tanner Scott (30)
RP LHP Wandy Peralta (33) - exercised player option and remained with the Padres
RP Carl "C.J." Edwards Jr. (33)
IF/OF Tyler Wade(30) - re-signed with Padres
SS Mason McCoy(29) - re-signed with Padres to minor league contract
RHP Joe Espada(27) - re-signed with Padres to minor league contract
RHP Luis Patino(25)
OF Bryce Johnson (29)
RHP Logan Gallaspie (27)

The Padres still have much to do, As Fenn has said it will start with the Roki Sasaki signing. Hopefully with the Padres.

 

Patino resigned a minor league contract with us

Quote from ultratvfan on December 26, 2024, 6:18 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on December 26, 2024, 6:07 pm

Patino resigned a minor league contract with us

I have seen or heard nothing on Patino. What was your source?

Quote from lafnboy13 on December 26, 2024, 6:30 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on December 26, 2024, 6:18 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on December 26, 2024, 6:07 pm

Patino resigned a minor league contract with us

I have seen or heard nothing on Patino. What was your source?

https://x.com/madfriars/status/1869913488870781234?s=46&t=KdU2-ebQ9n0tuXaO05eELQ&prefetchTimestamp=1735266617107

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2024, 7:17 am

As we head to January it is getting time for Padres to start making some moves / news. Jan 15 or so we should know the resolution of Sasaki and by the end of the month he exchange of ARB numbers are due and considering Preller never goes to ARB ... we should know a lot more on the ARB eligible players.

Tied in with those events should be player moves (adds/deletes) to both fill out the roster and adjust to the CASH payroll target (whatever that really is).

I expect the Padres / Preller will make every attempt to restructure to remain a legit contender given the core on offense and pitching ... not easy but possible.

Using Roster Resource on the payroll ... they estimate the current roster after ARBs will be at $210MM ... a 24% increase over the $169MM in 2024. A $41MM increase is way above what is implied by all the media reports that the Padres will only have a "slight" increase (no idea what that translates to). Note that if they drop the CASH payroll the will easily drop under the CBT threshold.

To that end ... and assuming they do NOT sign Sasaki ... have to consider the following strategy that focuses on dropping salaries with feasible trades (but not focusing on the returns ... getting something useful back is just a bonus):

Trade Suarez ($10MM) and Peralta ($4.250) ... Padres have RP options with Adam / Estrada / Matsui / Morejon as late inning options and frankly neither Suarez and Peralta were that great for the full 2024.

Trade Arraez ($14.6MM) ... although I like his bat he is the highest cost FA to be and has to be a target

Trade Cronenworth ($11.3MM) ... plus some benefit from dropping his long term contract. Apparently has a market if the Padres don't push for a major return.

Make those four trade and the Padres start point is at the 2024 payroll level. Then whatever that "slight" increase level is can be deployed on filling the "holes" ... offense and given the way FA have been going pitching is more over priced than offense and also more picked over. Also that is why I would not deal Cease and preserve a Cease, King, Darvish top 3 SP. I would not change this strategy even if they did sign Sasaki and go with the stronger SP rotation.

(assuming they do not fill any holes via the trade returns ... that will be league minimum types) they have holes on offense:

C: Someone to pair with Campusano ... low cost defense option (Diaz?) ... at this point should be $3-4MM?

LF: unless they gamble on a platoon of Ornelas / Gonzales

2B: (assuming Bogaerts is SS) unless they gamble with Rosario

1B: ???

DH: ???

How much can Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Bogaerts, and Campusano carry of the offense to allow for "lower end" options at these other positions? Do some of these positions get addressed in the returns of league minimum (or close to league minimum) types? How much can the gamble on Ornelas and Rosario? How many FA can they sign with the flexibility payroll post-trades? Remember that Preller hit gold with really low cost FA last winter in Solano and D.Peralta ... so expect a bit of that (maybe even returning them in the $2MM range).

January (and early February) should interesting.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2024, 7:37 am

Gleyber Torres signs with DET for one year, $15MM. That takes all the "better" 2B off the FA market. Does that make a Cronenworth trade more feasible?

Torres: $15MM; 104 wRC+; 1.7 WAR; played 154 games

Cronenworth: $11MM; 105 WRC+; 2.1 WAR; played 155 games ... could argue the his WAR would be better as a 2B.

So would expect a team that needs / wants a 2B can see Cronenworth as a legit "bargain" trade objective. Actually his coming years at a $12MM ... if Torres' $15MM is a benchmark ... can be view as an ongoing bargain.

Remember Preller may be in a box with the payroll (and all the other GMs know it) ... so pretty sure they will play hard ball on the return ... especially if Preller needs to get league minimum types.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 27, 2024, 12:32 pm

I know that interdivision trades are rare; however, this trade could work well for both teams.

AZ gets Suarez and Peralta, SD gets Jordan Montgomery and $4-5M in cash to offset the money owed to Montgomery. So no added $$ towards SD CBT number.

Why it could work. Montgomery is on a 1 year contract, Suarez can opt out after this season, and Peralta has player options for 26 and 27. AZ bullpen was horrible last season, and SD needs at least one more SP, even if we get Sasaki.

AZ owner blasted Montgomery in the press, and I am sure he would love to get out of AZ. I know that Montgomery had a bad season last year, but he signed late, AZ is a horrible pitchers park, and he is only one season removed from being dominant. Put Montgomery in SD, with Niebla, a full ST, and a very defensive team behind him and I think that he has a great season.

You would think a rotation of Cease, Darvish, King, Montgomery, and Sasaki would be one of the top rotations in ML.

Quote from ultratvfan on December 27, 2024, 1:47 pm

I don't want Jordan Montgomery. He was a $25 million flop in the 2024 season.

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2024, 2:00 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 27, 2024, 12:32 pm

I know that interdivision trades are rare; however, this trade could work well for both teams.

AZ gets Suarez and Peralta, SD gets Jordan Montgomery and $4-5M in cash to offset the money owed to Montgomery. So no added $$ towards SD CBT number.

Why it could work. Montgomery is on a 1 year contract, Suarez can opt out after this season, and Peralta has player options for 26 and 27. AZ bullpen was horrible last season, and SD needs at least one more SP, even if we get Sasaki.

AZ owner blasted Montgomery in the press, and I am sure he would love to get out of AZ. I know that Montgomery had a bad season last year, but he signed late, AZ is a horrible pitchers park, and he is only one season removed from being dominant. Put Montgomery in SD, with Niebla, a full ST, and a very defensive team behind him and I think that he has a great season.

You would think a rotation of Cease, Darvish, King, Montgomery, and Sasaki would be one of the top rotations in ML.

from a CASH view ... to balance the deal ... AZ would need to kick in $8MM (which they might do in that deal).

The issue is that does nothing for helping the Padres achieve their lower payroll target ... so will have a greater problem by not having Suarez / Peralta to trade for roster help that cost league minimum.

Preller may in a position where he needs to go under the payroll target first then add back up to the target ... if the target cap is firm.

Probably the "easiest" is to trade Arraez, Cease, and Suarez (all should have markets) for prospects ... that would return the Padres to near the 2024 level THEN take the approved payroll increase to sign lower end FA to fill out the roster. No issue with a Suarez replacement and if Sasaki signs a Sasaki-King-Darvish top 3 is a good SP base, so adding useful bats via FA (if not part of the return in the trades) would be the move (and a lot of "bodies" still on the board).

Don't envy Preller this winter.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 27, 2024, 3:27 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on December 27, 2024, 1:47 pm

I don't want Jordan Montgomery. He was a $25 million flop in the 2024 season.

I know that Montgomery had a bad season last year, but he signed late, AZ is a horrible pitchers park, and he is only one season removed from being dominant. Put Montgomery in SD, with Niebla, a full ST, a better pitchers park, and a very good defensive team behind him and I think that he has a great season.