Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2024, 6:39 am

Joc Pederson signs with TEX for $37MM/2 years ($18.5MM AAV). Whew, a 32 year old DH at this point (terrible defensive OF).

Getting less likely that the Padres can afford Profar (or maybe any decent FA) even if they shed some of the existing players.

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2024, 6:41 am

BOSTON signs Walker Buehler for one year .. $21MM … again WHEW given all his injury risks.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 23, 2024, 9:03 am

Big gambles by teams with Big Money.  If these signings set the floor for OFs and SPs who have had only one season better than average over the last 3 seasons and are injury or age risks, you have to wonder what the Padres will do to fill out their roster.   No way I would have given that kind of money to any of these 3 guys.  I'm still not that concerned that Preller won't find a trading partner or a diamond in the rough to bolster the 2025 team - lots of time before the season starts.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 23, 2024, 9:05 am

We'll see if the holidays spur anything on the Padres front. Rosenthal reported that Carlos Santana said the Padres had talked to him and asked him to wait on making a decision. It's starting to feel like that's the plan for the off-season. Wait for Roki Sasaki's decision and scramble from there.

Quote from ultratvfan on December 23, 2024, 10:34 am

Wil Myers, 34, retires.

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2024, 10:44 am

Clearly signing or not signing Sasaki will have a domino effect on subsequent moves ... just no idea what ... while also dealing with the unknown of a payroll target. Have to think internally they already have a target but maybe there are still some behind the scenes cash flow issues (e.g. new loan) to be approved.

I have to stick with the reports that the payroll will go up from the 2024 level ($169MM) but below the current projected of $203MM (Roster Resource) ... requiring some trades of existing contracts. I guess the signing of Sasaki would make it more comfortable to trade Cease ... who would clear $14MMish and likely yield the best return.

If Sasaki not signed keeping a Cease may be more strategic under the assumption they will still try for the playoffs but shift to what may be a better gamble and deal from Arraez, Suarez or move (probably at little useful player return) to clear money ... Cronenworth or Bogaerts. Given the current contract signings ... beginning to think moving their contracts is now more feasible than perviously.

Need at least 3 legit ML SP (Cease, King, Darvish) and not getting one more out of FA other than Sasaki at Padre prices. However, the offense with Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Arraez, and Campusano is competitive. So without Sasaki while needing to drop payroll ... trading some offense and backfilling with the low end likes of a Solano type or gamble on rookies like Ornelas may still work ... plus whatever they get back in the trade.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on December 23, 2024, 11:10 am

What about Toronto as a trade partner?  Not going after Vlad Jr, but what about a couple of possible complimentary pieces - like Alejandro Kirk at c and Alex Manoah?  Toronto is a team in flux, especially if they don't intend to extend Vlad, but it seems they think they are better than they really are with the top of the rotation SPs they have.  They do need a closer/high leverage RP so what about Suarez for Kirk and Manoah?  Manoah had a great 2022 season but hasn't been close to that since and had TJ surgery last year.  He could be ready to come back to where he was in 2022 about mid-season but even if he isn't we probably clear around 5M off the books.

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2024, 12:12 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on December 23, 2024, 11:10 am

What about Toronto as a trade partner?  Not going after Vlad Jr, but what about a couple of possible complimentary pieces - like Alejandro Kirk at c and Alex Manoah?  Toronto is a team in flux, especially if they don't intend to extend Vlad, but it seems they think they are better than they really are with the top of the rotation SPs they have.  They do need a closer/high leverage RP so what about Suarez for Kirk and Manoah?  Manoah had a great 2022 season but hasn't been close to that since and had TJ surgery last year.  He could be ready to come back to where he was in 2022 about mid-season but even if he isn't we probably clear around 5M off the books.

Well they have the money to take on a large contract … but likely looking for a 3B or an OF … something the Padres don’t have to deal.

On the flip side … Kirk is their starting C and a middle of the order bat (with no real backup) so not a moveable part. Plus should be getting $4-5MM in ARB which does not fit with the Padres trying to lower payroll. Manoah had elbow surgery last summer … so may not even be available for 2025’s start.

Just guessing they are trying for Bergman (3B) or Santander (OF).

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2024, 12:30 pm

Did see where BOST may still be looking at a top of the rotation SP even after recent signings (most with injury issues) and Cease was of some interest.

So if the Padres sign Sasaki, could Cease to BOST be an option to clear about $14MM? BOST has a pretty strong set of young (league minimum types) who could move into the Padres ML line-up.

Given only Burnes (BIG money long term) and Flaherty (less but still big money) of any quality on the FA market, Cease for one year at $14MM might be very appealing. Plus their depth of position player talent might make them more open to dealing quality.

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In a similar vein, METS have implied they would like to add either a 3B (Bergman) or a 1B (with Vientos to 3B). Arraez? Padres save another $14-15MM. Thinking there may be a large impass between the METS and Alonso … Alonso may be seeing way too much vs how Cohen values him.

I could see a creative Preller deal that lands either Acuna or Williams for SS … both blocked by Lindor … allowing Bogaerts to remain at 2B, Croney at 1B.

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Make those two deals … get a couple of ML ready pieces … clear about $28MM and should be under the payroll target allowing for some “minor” FA signings to fill out the roster.

It all starts with Sasaki signing.