Quote from MrPadre19 on July 17, 2023, 7:08 am

They got both Steer and Strand in the deal for Mahle.

Strand was barely in the Twins top 20 prospects at the time.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 17, 2023, 7:35 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 17, 2023, 7:06 am

Reds traded some good starting pitchers for prospects.

Those prospects to this point have all panned out.

We could do the same now with Snell/Hader.

 

And Soto. (At least I am consistent on this theme).

Padres in 2023 have exposed a string of major weaknesses along with the early failures that are going remain an issue in 2024 as Snell, Lugo, and Hader depart as FA … not a deep farm of prospect to backfill or be used in trades for major pieces … and a payroll that still will be over $250MM (CBT) with no adds except league minimum types.

Even going beyond 2024 … Soto will be gone anyway and Kim likely to be gone … and the Padres will be strapped with long term major cost contracts for Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Musgrove, and Darvish limiting reshaping the roster for years.

The “all in” model used in 2015 (failed for the Padres)  made worse by the “all in” model for 2023 enhanced by the extensive use of the major long term contracts (failing) suggests that is not the model that should be followed by the Padres. Not working for the METS either in 2023.

I know Siedler has repeatedly said that he wants to create a sustained winner and that justifies the long term deals but the cost / benefit on these deals may have been mis-evaluated while at the same time not evaluating effectively how sustain a full 26 man roster. Now Siedler may still want to pour more money into the team but given the current mix … thinking that is like an addictive gambler who can’t stop betting even when losing and wants to double down.

Sometimes a strategic retreat is the best move … and be a seller in 2023.

Quote from Stergios on July 18, 2023, 8:07 am

https://www.reddit.com/r/Padres/comments/152eoa6/mlbnow_at_4450_could_the_padres_be_deadline/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

Very interesting

Quote from BoosterSD on July 18, 2023, 9:26 am

Amaro Jr. reiterated what I said in another post, this team has no grit. Too many stars, and not enough "red ass" on this team. They have great little dances, snappy hand slaps, but no one with that punch you in the gut mentality.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 19, 2023, 11:35 am

Last nights game was exactly like I thought we would have had many more of.....Our run differential says we are a playoff team...our inability to get clutch hits the first 3 month is why we aren't.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 20, 2023, 1:12 pm

https://youtu.be/MLCLMEYp9s0

 

I've had this ready to go for weeks waiting for us to get a small winning streak going.

We still have not won more than 3 games in a row and we are 97 games in.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2023, 3:37 am

Time to give some kudos to Lugo for his work in 2023 as a SP. He had not really been a starter since 2017 and at 33 not an easy move … yet has delivered a 3.72 ERA in 14 starts (75 innings) … that is good. (Probably should give some kudos also to Preller for the signing … maybe offsets the Carpenter signing).

Have to still have some concern about controlling innings since he is already over recent years innings pitched and the last time he went 101 innings was 2018 .. and with maybe 10 starts needed to complete the season … he would be pushed up to around 130 innings not counting work in the playoffs. Will that level result in fading performance?

One potential negative may turn out to be a positive … his 5 week IL stint (May 17 to June 20) gave his arm a mid-season rest. That could extend his innings in 2023.

Musgrove, Darvish, Snell should give an elite 1 - 3 SP for a playoff run BUT when trying to gain ground Padres need production out of 4-5 and with Wacha down for a few more weeks (and the unknown on his effectiveness upon his return) and nothing to rely upon beyond that … the pressure is on Lugo to keep up his performance for the rest of the season.

1. Makes a case for getting at least a reliable #5 SP at the trade deadline (anything better would be difficult to out bid others to get) … if a buyer

2. Lugo is a FA after the season (will decline is player option) … so will Preller try for a deadline add controlled beyond 2023? Will Preller try to give Lugo and extension given the 2024 need … Lugo’s performance … good chance he would come in cheaper than Wacha or Snell but at 34 next season for how much / how long?

3. If out of contention, Lugo has produced enough to actually be a decent trade chip … maybe and A ball / Rookie level upside prospect.

Bottom line one of the better FA signings by the Padres going a bit under the radar.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2023, 9:20 pm

This season has me wondering…..has any team ever had more home sellouts than victories?

We currently have had 40 sellouts and have 48 wins.

I’m glad Seidler is getting some of his money back at least.

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2023, 11:44 am

Really beginning to wonder more about the decision making process in the front office ... easy to just focus on Preller (and may he is just a dictator that takes no input) but what about the input from the analytics department and the scouting department. The issue focuses on the players signed coupled with the contracts given ... clearly not getting value while handcuffing the team in the future. Has Siedler opening the pocketbook and desire to create an immediate winner actually had the opposite effect as the front office is "careless"?

Hard to see the rationale in the signings of:

1. Darvish ... extended for 6 years / $108MM through 2028 at age 41 ... but he had already had early signs of diminished effectiveness ... in 2022 (and continuing in 2023) his K% is down and BB% is up and although his ERA was good in 2022 ... his 2021 was not (for the price) ... most believe aging in his late 30s will diminish productivity ... so why give him a 6 year deal? Shorter deal yes but 6 years his hard to justify.
2. Carpenter ... maybe obvious ... but how do you give 37 year old not being pursued by many teams a $12MM/2 year deal after hitting .226 (2019) - .189 (2020) - .169 (2021) then a short 47 hot streak with the NYY. Sign him maybe but that contract??????
3. Cronenworth ... who had 3 arbitration years ahead of him (so controlled) and was already 28 coming of 3 years of diminishing productivity with wRC+ dropping 126 - 116 - 109 and a 2B (not the most critical position) ... gets a new 7 year / $80MM contract through 2029 (age 36). Why?

Those three contracts last winter made no sense when taken as a group and made even worse when rolling in the mega contract to Bogaerts and extension for Machado both taking them into their 40s. Plus we should not forget the long deal for Suarez into his mid 30s based on ??????

Probably can argue each deal on a solo basis but the combo ... especially when the deals don't deliver a winner immediately ... has to be challenged and will cripple the organization for years with the money locked up ... and no team is going to trade for theses guys AND THE CONTRACT.

Who is scouting these players ... who is recommending these contracts ... who is making the final call?