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2023 Season
#641 · June 26, 2023, 9:38 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 26, 2023, 8:43 amThere's plenty of blame to go around. To me it has to start with Preller. To give him credit he brought the excitement level and expectations for the team to new heights. There's never been this much sustained interest in the team for this many seasons. We're in year 9 now though and we've only had 2 seasons with a winning record. For all the trades he's made and money he's spent the end result simply isn't good enough. If you want to blame the players he's the one that brought them in. The same goes for Melvin, Tingler and Green. At a certain point you have to look for the common thread. To me that's Preller.
I agree, this all falls on Preller. As been stated before, sometimes its better to have a lot of really good players that come together versus a team of All Stars. With the exception of Torre and the NYY, I cant really remember a team of "All Stars" that have finished the journey. So I guess it leads to the question of.......
Is this a "team" that is not being driven correctly, or is this a collection of "All Stars" that looks impressive on paper, but can not play together as a team?
Your personal answer to that last question, would direct who is to blame. Melvin or Preller?
For me at this time, I will lean to Melvin. Time or a managerial change will tell.
#642 · June 26, 2023, 9:42 am
Preller seems to fall into the mode of one of my ex-bosses ... good decisions AT THE TIME based on the information at hand BUT bad outcomes ... that happening consistently resulted in my ex-boss getting fired in a results based business.
This year (and in 2015) just hard to explain how the high profile moves could turn out so badly ... moves that were praised across national media / analysts. Maybe just bad luck ... bad karma ... cursed ... or just the idea of going for the big money brass ring is a flawed approach (see he METS v the RAYS) ... but the end state is what we are living with and that does settle on Preller.
Move on from Preller may be a step in the right direction but not a short run solution and if he stays (or goes) the Padres will have to carry the burden of a large list of big money / long term deals of underperforming players and a farm system that likely will not provide much help for 3-4 years.
Baring an amazing turnaround in 2023 ... Siedler will have to make a major call on the direction going forward as soon as the trade deadline (he will give that direction to Preller). Can he justify throwing good money after bad at the deadline knowing that Snell / Hader are big money FA and Soto / Kim are big money FA after 2024. Plus retaining Wacha / Martinez / Lugo are big money increases. With a bad team in 2023 ... can he justify the continued spending on the hope that the returning team in 2024 will be better?
Are we in that trite saying mode of "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the sign of insanity". IF the Padres are clearly not close to contending in late July ... I am in the sell camp ... pick-up some prospects ... and revert to the TB model of build from within with a core of "stars" that remain under big / long contracts (just can't get rid of them). Drop out of the penalty zone in CBT and going forward regain some strength in the draft for the future.
#643 · June 26, 2023, 10:37 am
I'm of the mind that if Melvin can't fix the "heart" issues with this team, then no one can. I truly don't think we can blame him in any measurable way for clubhouse issues. He's definitely had some highly questionable bullpen decisions, but I feel like it hasn't risen to anything close to fireable levels.
The problems with this team are on the DNA level, and that's Preller's fault. I'll admit that I thought heart and chemistry would be a strength of this team, but I'm not a professional front office guy. Preller is the one that needs to evaluate this, and he's the one who should wear the tomatoes when it's our time to throw them. I've also completely bought into the idea that Preller runs a shitty front office, where he doesn't truly listen to or accept opinions that run counter to his preconceptions or objectives. He's either got yes-men around him, or he creates yes-men around him. Either way, it's unacceptable.
#644 · June 26, 2023, 11:32 am
My guess,and that's all it is,is that Preller is safe until this time next season.
He "traded the Farm" for Soto and I'm sure the belief was that we would win one World Series while he was here.
Based on this line of thinking I doubt he loses his job with a full season of Soto to go.
As a matter of fact I believe Seidler may even double down this off season and go for it one more time.
Whether that is signing Ohtani...... or securing 2-3 other guys with winning it all in 24' in mind.....remains to be seen.
But I doubt we will extend Soto at this point unless we have a big turnaround and/or start 2024 on fire.
#645 · June 26, 2023, 12:24 pm
I don't think if we sell RIGHT NOW, that it's a sign of surrender. It's a statement that " hey, we've got a good ball club here, just need to make a few tweaks ".
Soto brings in a guy that plays right now( whether that's Volpe or whomever) PLUS 2 or 3 solid organisational pieces for '24, '25, and beyond.
Obviously moving anyone else would bring back just depth for the future......but that's okay.
With Machado, Bogaerts, and especially Tatis, we have enough studs to carry the O. And Wacha, Yu, Musgrove, starting pitching is top line.
Losing Soto or Snell or Hader or Cronenworth- all replaceable from within( or in Soto's case, from without).
But if we WAIT until end of July , NOW that would be an omission of failure. And if that happens, AJ 100% should be gone.
#646 · June 26, 2023, 12:32 pm
Prepare yourself to be disappointed.
With the talent level on this team and the expectations to win and 84 games left there's no way they make any trades right now.
Esp when any teams who may be interested in the guys we would be willing to trade don't want to make the decision to "buy" yet either.
One major injury to a team between now and the deadline could completely change their strategy....injuries,and winning/losing streaks.... are why teams generally don't make big trades until right at the deadline.....or until they "have to" basically.
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#647 · June 26, 2023, 12:55 pm
The world of trades realistically does not exist until all teams have their own view of the rest of their season … and their specific needs. No one team is going to accelerate that timeline (unless the “give away” some top talent).
IF the Padres are out of it … we should hope that a large number of teams are in the hunt for the playoffs creating a competitive landscape for adds while reducing the available players in play. Result a better return if you are a seller.
Pitching is usually the most in demand trade chip … and with the current work from Snell, Hader, and Lugo should get a decent prospect in return for players not likely to be around in 2024 anyway (each would require some major new contract commitments). I guess for the right return Wacha and Martinez could be in play. The only bat that would have some play is Soto … and from reputation standpoint and a current stat standpoint with 1 more year of control should deliver a couple of decent prospects.
If you moved all those players … most that are unlikely to be back in 2024 anyway … is your 2024 going to be any worse?
#648 · June 26, 2023, 1:04 pm
Players aside … would not expect anything on Preller or Melvin until after the season.
Preller (and his staff) are likely in place to conduct the draft / signings and make the deadline deals but with another 4 years on his contract it may take Siedler (if he wants to make a move on Preller) some time to work through a “consultant” to ferret out replacement options. Not sure if there is an in-house interim option they are comfortable with to serve as GM / baseball operations VP.
Melvin on the other hand only has one more year on his 3 year deal … at the end of the season is the sweet spot (1 year remaining) to fire Melvin. That would also trigger an house cleaning of the coaching staff pending the new manager. Although with this team, I would not be surprise if a veteran manager like Melvin might just call it quits himself.
#649 · June 26, 2023, 2:31 pm
A bit positive on the team … in the NL:
#1 in lowest ERA (3.70), #1 fewest runs (304) … Pitching ie elite (big plus for Niebla)
#2 in DRS, #2 in dWAR, #1 if fewest error … Defense is elite
BUT as we all see:
#11 out of 15 in runs scored and a vast array of under average hitting stats.
Any complaining about the pitching and defense is a bit misguided since that is the only part of the the team keeping them out of last place.
#650 · June 26, 2023, 2:48 pm
On the Preller / Melvin discussion … under 9 years of Preller (excluding the COVID 60 game season), 2022 was the first winning season (89-73) and that was without Tatis or Bogaerts and with the SP including Clevinger and Manaea who did not excel. That is a long run of spectacular moves that have not delivered winning teams.
In Melvin’s 1st year he takes a flawed 2022 team and creates a winner … the first full season winner since 2010 … goes to NLCS … Melvin is a great manager. Now that Preller has “enhanced” the team with Tatis, Bogaerts, et al … offense collapses … Melvin is a terrible manager.
Side note: did listen to Acee that Melvin was allowed to hire only 2 coaches (Christianson and Williams) BUT Preller hired all the rest. So if you have an issue with the coaches … the path leads up to Preller not Melvin.
Melvin may go but don’t see a replacement (based on Preller’s hiring record) actually doing much to improve the record.
So, my focus is moving on from Preller … and when you do that you start a rebuild (rework) that will change out a lot of scouting / development personnel to fit the new GM’s model which in turn will (should) take years to generate a winner given this 40 man roster / farm system. That is OK … but not easy to accept.