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2023 Season
#51 · February 27, 2023, 11:24 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 27, 2023, 10:39 amHere we go again.
Soto hit .248/.404/.437 in the 2 hole last year.
He hit .226/.391/.496 in the 3 hole.
489 of his 771 career PAs in the 2 hole came last year. All that tells me is he had a down year last year and even in a down year he's really good. Any other year you're looking at too small of a sample size to draw any real conclusions.
For the record I don't really care where he hits 1-4 when Tatis comes back. I like the 2 hole mainly for R/L balance. I just don't buy the argument that he's a worse hitter in the 2 hole. There are way more plausible explanations for his down numbers than it simply being because he is hitting 2nd.
It really could be as simple as mentality at the plate. Historically the two spot hitter, such as a Mark Loretta type, moves guys over, hit and run, and get on base for the sluggers. Where as the 3-4 guys, slug and drive in runs. So just looking at his 2022 numbers that you just posted. I would rather pay $23M to the guy with a 60 point advantage in slugging. Personally, I think Crone can be a really good two, and then you can have the best version of Soto possible, as a 4 hitter. And still have the R-L-R-L-R balance that I agree with as well.
In all seriousness, IF his slugging numbers are down to start the year and batting in the 2 spot, how long would you wait until you move him back to the 4th spot? Two weeks? A month? The All Star break? Or do you go all year, thinking that the other plausible explanations will work themselves out?
Seems like a waste of a $23M generational hitter IMO.
#52 · February 27, 2023, 1:59 pm
If my generational hitter was struggling over a long period of time regardless of lineup position I would try to figure out the reason for it and get it corrected. If I really couldn't find any reason for it other than lineup position I would probably sacrifice a chicken to Jobu or something to see if we could lift whatever voodoo curse he's under. Immediately chalking it up to lineup position without considering other possibilities would be irresponsible.
#53 · February 27, 2023, 2:18 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 27, 2023, 1:59 pmIf my generational hitter was struggling over a long period of time regardless of lineup position I would try to figure out the reason for it and get it corrected. If I really couldn't find any reason for it other than lineup position I would probably sacrifice a chicken to Jobu or something to see if we could lift whatever voodoo curse he's under. Immediately chalking it up to lineup position without considering other possibilities would be irresponsible.
While I find your answer very clever, and sacrificing a chicken to Jobu is always a good idea. I will respectfully stick to numbers, screaming in my head that Melvin is an idiot, until Soto proves me wrong while wasting away in the 2 spot.
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Notmyopic
#54 · February 27, 2023, 2:39 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on February 27, 2023, 2:18 pmQuote from Jeremy Hill on February 27, 2023, 1:59 pmIf my generational hitter was struggling over a long period of time regardless of lineup position I would try to figure out the reason for it and get it corrected. If I really couldn't find any reason for it other than lineup position I would probably sacrifice a chicken to Jobu or something to see if we could lift whatever voodoo curse he's under. Immediately chalking it up to lineup position without considering other possibilities would be irresponsible.
While I find your answer very clever, and sacrificing a chicken to Jobu is always a good idea. I will respectfully stick to numbers, screaming in my head that Melvin is an idiot, until Soto proves me wrong while wasting away in the 2 spot.
Your numbers are a very small sample size in one year that was bad overall. If he is a truly great hitter, he can be great anywhere in the lineup. If he isn’t, we shouldn’t be trying to sign him to an extension.
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Jeremy Hill
#55 · February 27, 2023, 5:49 pm
Quote from Notmyopic on February 27, 2023, 2:39 pmYour numbers are a very small sample size in one year that was bad overall. If he is a truly great hitter, he can be great anywhere in the lineup. If he isn’t, we shouldn’t be trying to sign him to an extension.
2022 was the numbers brought up by Jeremy. I had started by talking about Soto's enitre career. Just went back at each year indiviually, 2018-2022. 2019, he only had 4 ABs in the two spot, one game.
2018 - he actually batted 5th most this season.
2nd 77 ABs - .260 BA, .405 OBP, .390 SLG with 2 HRs.
4th - 30 ABs .333 BA, .408 OBP, .667 SLG with 2 HRs.
2019 - Then almost the entire season batting 4th, and they won the World Series.
4th - .283 BA, .401 OBP, .551 SLG and 31 of his 34 HRs.
2020 - weird season due to covid.
2nd 50 ABs - .320 BA, .424 OBP, .540 SLG with 3 HRs. Great numbers until you compare them to him batting 4th.
4th 44 ABs - .386 BA, .500 OBP, .886 SLG with 6 HRs.
2021 - only batted 2nd and 4th.
2nd 101 ABs - .267 BA, .405 OBP, .356 SLG with 1 HR.
4th 394 ABs - .330 BA, .484 OBP, .589 SLG with 28 HRs.
So except for 2020, his numbers exceedingly show he should not hit 2nd. Not a small sample size, this is his entire career. Face it guys, this is a natural born clean up hitter. Bat him 4th and reap the benefits, which is a World Series Championship.
#56 · February 27, 2023, 8:15 pm
So outside of last year he's never had more than a month's worth of ABs in the 2 hole. Those are all small samples. One good game or series could completely change the stat line in samples that small.
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BoosterSD
#57 · February 27, 2023, 10:22 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on February 27, 2023, 5:49 pmQuote from Notmyopic on February 27, 2023, 2:39 pmYour numbers are a very small sample size in one year that was bad overall. If he is a truly great hitter, he can be great anywhere in the lineup. If he isn’t, we shouldn’t be trying to sign him to an extension.
2022 was the numbers brought up by Jeremy. I had started by talking about Soto's enitre career. Just went back at each year indiviually, 2018-2022. 2019, he only had 4 ABs in the two spot, one game.
2018 - he actually batted 5th most this season.
2nd 77 ABs - .260 BA, .405 OBP, .390 SLG with 2 HRs.
4th - 30 ABs .333 BA, .408 OBP, .667 SLG with 2 HRs.
2019 - Then almost the entire season batting 4th, and they won the World Series.
4th - .283 BA, .401 OBP, .551 SLG and 31 of his 34 HRs.
2020 - weird season due to covid.
2nd 50 ABs - .320 BA, .424 OBP, .540 SLG with 3 HRs. Great numbers until you compare them to him batting 4th.
4th 44 ABs - .386 BA, .500 OBP, .886 SLG with 6 HRs.
2021 - only batted 2nd and 4th.
2nd 101 ABs - .267 BA, .405 OBP, .356 SLG with 1 HR.
4th 394 ABs - .330 BA, .484 OBP, .589 SLG with 28 HRs.
So except for 2020, his numbers exceedingly show he should not hit 2nd. Not a small sample size, this is his entire career. Face it guys, this is a natural born clean up hitter. Bat him 4th and reap the benefits, which is a World Series Championship.
According to your count he barely has more than 200 ABs in the 2 hole before last season. If you truly believe he is a great hitter, you are doing him a disservice.
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BoosterSD
#58 · February 27, 2023, 10:39 pm
To start the season Padres will play their top 4 hitters 1-4 the depending how they are doing (and the team is doing) they will reevaluate about 100 AB in. Gets the best the most AB and the chance to change the game in the 1st inning.
Have to see Soto as a Padre between Bogaerts and Machado with Tatis in the hole before I write him off in the #2 hole. His hype is an elite hitter with power and patience … so sitting in the middle likely will force pitchers to give him better pitches to hit.
In the past don’t really know the protection around him and how pitchers approached him any hitting slot but could imagine in the #2 hole they were more willing to walk him and not give him balls to hit out. Plus, although should not be a factor … shifting from LF to RF in WASH/SD might have been a factor along with going in a trade
I would have preferred the 3 hole but Manny wants that … and he gets that.
Also, may not want a real base stealer ahead of Soto (LHH) who may steal … open up 1B for the pitcher to basically pitch around Soto. Maybe not a 1st inning issue but could impact the later innings. Also would let the 1B play off the base cutting off holes on the right side for the LHH Soto.
We should just wait to see what plays out.
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Notmyopic
#59 · February 28, 2023, 3:56 am
The highest OBP hitters at the top of the lineup “in front” of the guys with the most power was a great idea in the past…..but guess what,it still is.
Now that we have guys like this it’s an even better idea.
If Xander (or lead off hitter) gets on base and Soto draws a walk we now have 2 on and 1 in scoring position.
If lead off doesn’t get on and Soto draws a walk…we now have a runner on for #3 and #4.
Of course Soto drawing walks isn’t ideal….but it is what he does and we should take advantage of it.
Drawing a walk with bases empty in front of a 42 year old DH isn’t as helpful IMO.
#60 · February 28, 2023, 6:53 am
You all are still focusing on his OBP, while I am focusing on his BA, OBP, and SLG. He is the best slugging percentage on the team as well as OBP. I think its a waste of his entire ability batting him 2nd, and not what we traded for IMO. We traded for the combo of average, OBP, and slugging which I think is proven is at his best in the 3rd or 4th spot. So whether its Tatis or Bogaerts in the 1st and 5th spot, I still think the best offense SD can put on the field is with Machado 3rd and Soto 4th, filling the line up around that.
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