Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 20, 2023, 8:33 am

Quote from fenn68 on May 20, 2023, 7:41 am

Just a different view of the poor offensive production by the Padres ... this view is by position as it compares to other MLB teams. Went with MLB rank of wRC+ and WAR:

28 / 29 ... C ... Nola / Sullivan are not a surprise

21 / 16 ... 1B ... Cronenworth's defense helps the WAR

21 / 13 ... 2B ... Kim's defense helps the WAR

5 /  3 ... SS ... Bogaert despite his recent slump is delivering

24 / 29 ... 3B ... Machado is not

  4 /   7 ... LF ... Soto is delivering the stats (if not clutch)

24 / 29 ... CF ... Grisham's defense is not showing well in dWAR (and that was his only value)

  7 / 11 ... RF ... used only Tatis' numbers and excluded the starts without him ... in total it is 23 / 21

18 / --- ... DH ... Cruz / Carpenter each had their big games and slumps

Not surprising but Bogaerts, Soto, and Tatis are playing well enough (can debate clutch) for a playoff team BUT the huge drop-off for the rest of the line-up shrinks the line-up to a non-productive collective. Overall the team nets just below the median team in MLB.

Yeah I was looking at OPS +.. and Soto/Xander/Tatis are fine.. not career yr or avg fine.. but solid.. with Sotobat 142... Jake 103 and Kim 96 are passable and actually ahead of where they were last year at this time..(no issue there).. Carpenter 107 is also fine.. Cruz 98 borderline ok (but regressing since April so ??)

The huge negatives

Nola and Sullivan are below 50

Grisham is in the low 80's

MANNY is 83?? - I think the clock, his back, new rules overall has him messed up (offensively/mental gymnastics) and although he was showing some signs (during that 10 win 4 loss stretch a couple weeks ago) he seems to have gone into another slump (0-11 vs LAD who he usually rakes against)... hopefully the time off helps him physically and maybe mentally ..I have no concerns long term with Manny figuring it all now, the problem is Soto/Tatis/Xander at least look like they are more comfortable with all the changes and Manny is not, and may take him all of 2023 (hopefully not) to get to avg Machado, if not MVP level Machado.. (I predict a huge 2024 for him.. not sure if he will be 1st year as Padre Manny in 2023 though..which is fine if he can just contribute at a level that helps us win, compliments the other 3...

Summary

Grisham CF/Nola C.. and bench are clearly areas of concern/upgradable even with below avg/avg players (90-95 OPS+) at the plate... Best hope is that at least ONE (likely Nola cause Grish just looks unfixable) improves enough..for Nola even just 85 OPS+ would nearly double his current #'s

The team as a whole has to play SMART baseball ..starting Tonight.. one pitch at a time, one inning at a time, one game at a time.. Lets Go Padres!

Quote from fenn68 on May 20, 2023, 10:40 am

I basically don’t have a short term solution to the Nola / Grisham issue … and don’t have any reason to expect significant improvement with either. The most with Nola is to wait for Campusano to return later in the season (and hope) then address the hole in the winter. Sort of torn between two options with Grisham … start playing Azocar in CF regularly … may not be great but should be better offensively. Maybe a bolder move and shift Tatis to CF and do a mix and match in RF with better hitters than Grisham but negating the need to provide CF defense. Some combo of Azocar, Dahl, Odor, Carpenter should add more (albeit marginal) offense and it is easier to pick up an offensive minded RF at the trade deadline. Again, something to address in the winter.

Quote from fenn68 on May 20, 2023, 10:50 am

I normally don’t like to peg offense by position but in the case of Cronenworth at 1B will make the exception. While his offense in about league average … and maybe good for a 2B … really deficient for a 1B where we should demand more production offensively.

Again don’t see a quick fix but maybe at the trade deadline (clearly next winter) the Padres may have to make the decision to upgrade 1B … move Cronenworth to 2B (given his new contract not likely moved) and either deal Kim (or have him the back-up INF for 2B/SS/3B.

——————

As for Carpenter / Cruz think their cumulative stats are a bit deceptive … both had a limited number of “big games” that hide that fact that through most of the season they have been underperforming. Again see not short term solution and a winter issue. Note: Carpenter has a player option for 2024 and given his performance and age … likely to exercise it. Cruz will be gone.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 20, 2023, 12:01 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 20, 2023, 10:50 am

I normally don’t like to peg offense by position but in the case of Cronenworth at 1B will make the exception. While his offense in about league average … and maybe good for a 2B … really deficient for a 1B where we should demand more production offensively.

Again don’t see a quick fix but maybe at the trade deadline (clearly next winter) the Padres may have to make the decision to upgrade 1B … move Cronenworth to 2B (given his new contract not likely moved) and either deal Kim (or have him the back-up INF for 2B/SS/3B.

——————

As for Carpenter / Cruz think their cumulative stats are a bit deceptive … both had a limited number of “big games” that hide that fact that through most of the season they have been underperforming. Again see not short term solution and a winter issue. Note: Carpenter has a player option for 2024 and given his performance and age … likely to exercise it. Cruz will be gone.

 

At this point I would leave Tatis in RF .. he has been pretty elite on Defense.. why lower that standard there...Azocar Defense at CF is on par or even > (more range and elite jumps)than Grish.. No power ..but skill set as a slap hitter/some line drive pop /bunting and speed ..and better approach/hit tool.. compliments our 1-9 in areas we are deficient.. I would bat Azocar #9.. and send Grish to AAA.. maybe pick up Hicks once he clears waivers.. as a 4th OF..

Looking at LEE KBO ... he is really struggling to hit this season for some reason..so not sure he is "the guy" or fit for us next offseason..

https://mykbostats.com/players/1524-Lee-Junghoo-Kiwoom-Heroes

100 to 200 points off in most stats through 39 games at KBO.. so some reason for MLB success concerns

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 20, 2023, 3:49 pm

Azocar starting CF tonight... Engel DFA... Lets Go!...

Quote from fenn68 on May 20, 2023, 6:49 pm

Opens a spot on the 40 man.

Padres sign C Kevin Plawecki (32 year veteran) to a non-roster deal and sent him to AAA. Decent defense and not a great hitter but probably an upgrade over the versions of Nola / Sullivan.

Might see him up once he gets some AB in EP.

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 20, 2023, 8:20 pm

It really sucks that Campusano isn’t getting his first extended opportunity right now.

No way he could be worse than what we’ve got and we would also have a better idea about the next few years at the position.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 20, 2023, 8:25 pm

Nola charged with three stolen bases already tonight and he none were his fault.

‘The first one was a bad tag by Kim and cost him two…….throw was there in plenty of time.

The third was 100% on Musgrove.

Obviously he hasn’t been good at throwing out runners….but you also can’t just look at the numbers and put it all on Nola….now his offense?

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 20, 2023, 8:29 pm

Thinking of starting a pool to see who can guess when our next hit with RISP will be.

Or our next homerun with a runner on base.