Quote from fenn68 on April 22, 2023, 4:38 am

It seems as though when Musgrove is back and they go to a 5 man rotation in May … it is Martinez and Weathers who go to the pen. It had to be a tough call to leave the two least productive SP (Wacha and Snell) in the rotation and pull two of the more effective SP (Martinez and Weathers).

I guess given neither Wacha and Snell have a history as a RP and … in the big picture their full season value is as starters. We have seen Martinez have success in the pen and Weathers just don’t know. Would guess when they need to give Lugo a break for innings management … one will return to SP (or they move on from Wacha).

Better hope Snell and Wacha get their acts together or with the current offense the Padres will have a problem coming from behind.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on April 22, 2023, 6:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 22, 2023, 4:38 am

It seems as though when Musgrove is back and they go to a 5 man rotation in May … it is Martinez and Weathers who go to the pen. It had to be a tough call to leave the two least productive SP (Wacha and Snell) in the rotation and pull two of the more effective SP (Martinez and Weathers).

I guess given neither Wacha and Snell have a history as a RP and … in the big picture their full season value is as starters. We have seen Martinez have success in the pen and Weathers just don’t know. Would guess when they need to give Lugo a break for innings management … one will return to SP (or they move on from Wacha).

Better hope Snell and Wacha get their acts together or with the current offense the Padres will have a problem coming from behind.

With the current offense it doesn't matter if we have Ryan/Seaver/Clemens/Yu/Musgrove as our SP

I expect them to get going Manny more so than anyone else.. Soto for as bad as he has been is projecting 30 Bombs and running into one here and there..Manny makes more contact vs Soto but he has 0 SLG compare to his career #'s at this moment.. P is not a problem to be honest... the lack of runs score is...

Quote from fenn68 on April 22, 2023, 7:15 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on April 22, 2023, 6:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 22, 2023, 4:38 am

It seems as though when Musgrove is back and they go to a 5 man rotation in May … it is Martinez and Weathers who go to the pen. It had to be a tough call to leave the two least productive SP (Wacha and Snell) in the rotation and pull two of the more effective SP (Martinez and Weathers).

I guess given neither Wacha and Snell have a history as a RP and … in the big picture their full season value is as starters. We have seen Martinez have success in the pen and Weathers just don’t know. Would guess when they need to give Lugo a break for innings management … one will return to SP (or they move on from Wacha).

Better hope Snell and Wacha get their acts together or with the current offense the Padres will have a problem coming from behind.

With the current offense it doesn't matter if we have Ryan/Seaver/Clemens/Yu/Musgrove as our SP

I expect them to get going Manny more so than anyone else.. Soto for as bad as he has been is projecting 30 Bombs and running into one here and there..Manny makes more contact vs Soto but he has 0 SLG compare to his career #'s at this moment.. P is not a problem to be honest... the lack of runs score is...

Not make the odds of winning any better even if they start hitting when 40% of the starting staff is Snell (6.06 ERA) and Wacha (7.08 ERA) instead of Martinez (4.01 ERA) and Weathers (2.81 ERA).

Quote from fenn68 on April 22, 2023, 8:28 am

Time to look at the non-Soto parts of the offense … who by some measures are performing worse.

Since when a team is getting no hitting I really don’t like the value OPS puts on BB … so I converted the stat to BA+SLG (if you will the BS factor) to get a better measure of contribution to actual action:

1.  927 … Bogaerts

2.  698 … Grisham

3. 694 … Cronenworth

4. 554 … Soto

5. 548 … Kim

6. 512 … Machado

Also, since games are won by having more runs than the opponent I created the “impact factor” by adding runs scored and runs batted in (and yes I know that depends on others  but still reflects impact)

1. 26 … Bogaerts

2. 22 … Soto

3. 19 … Cronenworth

4. 18 … Grisham

5. 13 … Machado

6.   8 … Kim

Sure these have “flaws” but also have merit in reflecting hitting / offense … and maybe takes a bit of the target off Soto and redirects the concern to Machado and Kim?

Side: was not sure why they returned Soto to hitting #2 … maybe it was not about Soto but and attempt to get Machado in a better grove sandwiched between Soto and Bogaerts … it is not all about Soto.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on April 24, 2023, 7:37 am

What does a deal for E-Rod + Jake Rogers (or Hassee) look like?

Giolito + Grandal ?

I think AJP can go after either sooner rather than later.. like early- mid June to be honest.. both teams could be 10-15 games out of postseason with 10+ clubs in front of them..and could get more for say players a month or 2 earlier than Deadline...

Quote from fenn68 on April 24, 2023, 10:15 am

Padres give up at least one relatively high prospect (CHI or DET's view of a top prospect and a couple of mid range prospects in order to forgo waiting for other teams to enter the bidding at the trade deadline. The quality of the prospect(s) will very based on how much of the contracts the Padres would take.

Personally would not overpay for these players ... at least viewing it now with the current roster and after only 24 games and 1/2 games out of 1st place (20 without Tatis).

Consider:

1. Grandal (FA after the season and $18.250MM ... and would need to mesh with the pitching staff) and Giolito (FA after the season and $10.4MM ... and has not been a game changing SP for a few years with ERA north of 4.00). Mid-season Padres would pick up $14MM+/- in salary plus penalties.
2. Rogers (4 years control and at league minimum ... plus defense but despite his strong offside start not considered a good hitter in any projection) and Rodriguez (can opt out after 2023 but if not he has 4 years control ... $14-18-16-15MM ... sort of like Giolito and not been better than a 4 ERA recently ... the opt out makes him tough to value in a deal).

Too early to make any call on strategy ... 1-2 months before they can start to make better projections for the Padres with this current roster and evaluate any trade targets (if any) as the hot get cold and the cold get hot.

Rather they wait to the last minute to strike a deal to be sure (as best anyone can) that they target the biggest impact guy for the needs at that time and, importantly, the playoffs.

Quote from fenn68 on April 24, 2023, 10:49 am

Oh yea, save some ammo for Ohtani at the deadline.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on April 24, 2023, 11:33 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 24, 2023, 10:49 am

Oh yea, save some ammo for Ohtani at the deadline.

IF Othani is the Deadline deal ..I go Othani DH 90% of the time ..Carp 1B Crone 2B... with Kim spelling Manny/Crone/Carp (Crone to 1B) 1x per week ..resting them.. and late Def replacement in games at 2B ..with Jake to 1B...

Making out Bench really strong.. Cruz would DH a little ..maybe give Soto/ Tatis 5 to 10 games off .. but he would basically sit a lot as well as Engel or Azocar

Bench (Campy/or/Nola)/Kim/Cruz and Engel...

Bo Mel could play Kim more if hot and vs lhp.. with Carp to Bench as well. So as to rest Carp

Rotation would go back to 6 SP as Othani P 1x per 6.. BUT a Playoff rotation of Yu/Othani/Joe/Snell would be pretty special

Quote from Henry Silvestre on April 24, 2023, 11:42 am

BTW what do 2-3 months of Othani look like trade wise..??

I would go Merrill + a few 7 to 20 type specs and a lotto DSL guy.. if we eat the $$ (which we would cause Othani by himself would bring >$12mil (+ penalty $$) or so owed to him at the deasline)... But Only if we believe we had a 75% chance or greater of resigning him long term...

Otherwise I may lead with a Mazur + Zavala ++ type deal if my odds were below 50% on keeping him