Quote from Randy Manese on March 21, 2023, 9:56 am

I believe for pitchers, the the IL is 15 days not 10; this has bearing on what to do with Musgrove and/or Pomeranz.   If Musgrove (and/or Pomeranz) are placed on the IL, with the 3 day backdating, the earliest date to be activated is on the road versus the Mets, i.e., the middle or last game of a potentially difficult road trip.   On the other hand, it sounds miraculous but Musgrove could even be the opening day pitcher (but highly unlikely).  If Musgrove is put on the IL he could potentially miss 3 starts, if OD pitcher.   He then would likely open up against the Mets in New York (de ja vu - check his ears!) and then face the Braves anyway at home in what would then be his second start.

Even though Musgrove doesn't want to miss any starts (likely would be 2 vice 3) the Padres might be better off playing the long game and get him stretched out a little more and ensure there are no mechanical hiccups from that broken toe. I think opening his season in New York will get him fired up and help counter his disappointment on missing a couple of early starts.  As for Pomeranz, I'll take whatever I can get from him but it has to be the fully healthy version or it's not worth possibly having to DFA a player without options to activate him.

Quote from fenn68 on March 21, 2023, 10:50 am

Having not seen Pomeranz actually pitch in a ST “A” game … probably a very good chance he goes on the 15 day IL (maybe back dated 3 days). Then it is just a guess whether he stays in extend ST (then a rehab) or heads quickly to a rehab sequence if it appears he is “close” and could be activated as the IL stint ends. This is getting to appear like last season with Pomeranz “close” but never ready. Given he is throwing in ST … not likely a 60 day IL … but could see him linger on the 15 day for a lot longer than the minimum.

Musgrove might escape the IL if the Padres don’t want him to miss the starts and keep him active and have him target the 5th or 6th game to start. He apparently is throwing off the mound and a little over a week until opening day … so could conclude that about 2 weeks from today should be enough.

The reports are that the injuries to Morejon and Castillo are not “serious” but would guess enough to ticket them to the minors (both have options) as opposed to the 10 or 60 day IL … but that could change quickly given both their injury histories.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 22, 2023, 8:51 am

Jake Cronenworth has been money at the #2 spot in the batting order during ST but will he stay there when the season begins?  When he came up in 2020, he was primarily a ground ball hitter (G-45%, Line Drive-25%, Fly ball - 29%).  Over the past two years, he's morphed into the exact opposite as evidenced by 2022 stats (G-35, LD-17,F-48).  Unfortunately, this has had consequences on his BA/OPS as both have dropped.  However, in 2023 he'll be primarily playing 1b vice 2b and that could make a BIG difference.  2b men have to expend a lot of energy running all over the diamond making plays and setting up relays; 1b men - not so much.

Jake's personality is to go all out and you can almost see him looking exhausted at times during a game/series.  Moving to 1b will help preserve some of that strength so a lot of those lazy fly balls will now have more oomph behind them and some of those line drives outs could turn into gap hits with better expected exit velocity.  So, whether he stays in the #2 hole or drops down to #6 behind the DH slot, I'm predicting a big year for Jake with a moderate uptake in BA, but a lot more impactful production in terms of extra base hits.  Go Jake!

Quote from Notmyopic on March 23, 2023, 3:09 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on March 22, 2023, 8:51 am

Jake Cronenworth has been money at the #2 spot in the batting order during ST but will he stay there when the season begins?  When he came up in 2020, he was primarily a ground ball hitter (G-45%, Line Drive-25%, Fly ball - 29%).  Over the past two years, he's morphed into the exact opposite as evidenced by 2022 stats (G-35, LD-17,F-48).  Unfortunately, this has had consequences on his BA/OPS as both have dropped.  However, in 2023 he'll be primarily playing 1b vice 2b and that could make a BIG difference.  2b men have to expend a lot of energy running all over the diamond making plays and setting up relays; 1b men - not so much.

Jake's personality is to go all out and you can almost see him looking exhausted at times during a game/series.  Moving to 1b will help preserve some of that strength so a lot of those lazy fly balls will now have more oomph behind them and some of those line drives outs could turn into gap hits with better expected exit velocity.  So, whether he stays in the #2 hole or drops down to #6 behind the DH slot, I'm predicting a big year for Jake with a moderate uptake in BA, but a lot more impactful production in terms of extra base hits.  Go Jake!

Not buying that reasoning.  Playing second is no more exhausting than most other positions.  You could make this argument if he was a catcher catching more than he ever had.  But the far most likely explanation is he changed his swing a bit to generate more loft.  One does not develop a dip just due to being tired.  He might have a tremendous year, but if he does it’s more likely a combination of better supporting cast/less pressure and not trying to generate as much loft, hence not selling out for power as much.

Quote from fenn68 on March 23, 2023, 4:08 pm

I don't see the 1B vs 2B as a major factor but do see the chance to get more rest over 162 game (with this line-up) really helping him stay on top of his game. At time last year he appears worn down ... and think at some point was working through a minor injury.

With the top four of Tatis - Soto - Machado - Bogarts a lot of pressure should be off Cronenworth and, maybe, he reverts to his line-drive approach and backs away from the power / loft approach. Maybe the end of the shift will help that decision.

If they sit him 5th ... still should get a lot of RBI with the line-drive approach given the potential for runners on base out of the #1-4 slots.

Quote from fenn68 on March 25, 2023, 4:39 am

Notice a small piece on Forbes’ valuation of MLB clubs. (Given teams are not public, Forbes uses a variety of resources for this evaluation … but they are good at this as a financial publication).

Padres were ranked 17th in value (not surprising given their market size) but the interesting comment was that the Padres expenses exceeded their revenues. Basically Siedler is tapping into his wealth to fund this team.

Understand that the club valuation is rising and when he sells the club he should recoup those current losses but the current spending is cutting into his eventual wealth.

We should be thankful for Siedler.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 27, 2023, 2:22 pm

If it wasn't for his early spring training work, Dahl would have a hard time making this team based on his latest games - he's been terrible over the last week and a half with a huge number of strikeouts in his plate appearances.  When Tatis comes back and i Dahl hasn't done any better might see him optioned out vice Azocar.  Think they'll stick with Odor for as long as he's productive because he's likely to be claimed on waivers/opt out.  Sullivan and Kohlwey are still in the picture for the next LH bats to get a look after starting the season in El Paso.

Quote from fenn68 on March 27, 2023, 2:46 pm

Listened to a Kevin Acee interview today:

1. apparently there is an active debate in the Padres camp on Kohlway v Dahl for the 26 man roster. Kohlway seems to be on the rise (and can play 1B) while Dahl seems to be fading.
2. another active debate is about Tapia making the roster with his high 90s FB. With Pomeranz, Suarez, and likely Musgrove on the IL ... there is room.
3. (this one surprised me) ... he seemed to think Weathers will get that 6th SP slot (over Groome) until Musgrove returns. Acee's comment was that some concern that Groome does not have that finishing pitch and has not changed must since the was added while Weather's is viewed as having better stuff.
4. He did note Odor was getting reps in the OF ... did suggest Odor has a good shot for the 26 man.
5. Soto played in a "B" game with a hit / 3 BB and not issue with the oblique
6. Musgrove pitched in the "B" game and got the equivalent of 5 innings ... no issue with toe and now just getting the arm back into game readiness.

Quote from fenn68 on March 27, 2023, 4:00 pm

Groome optioned to AAA.