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2023 offseason

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Based on my "you are here" calculation ... Padres are about $6MM under the first threshold ($233MM). If as reported they are close to signing Martinez ... that will already push them over the first threshold and probably leave them in the high teens to get to the second threshold ... not adding multiple quality pieces off the FA market with something under $20MM ... assuming that the Padres even want to go that high.

So without a trade of a significant AAV salary (and that is really only Hader without creating a major hole) ... need to pare down that wish list of adds.

If no trade (go mega RP to win) might have to choose between:

a. SP (Senga) and then scramble on low end hitters from somewhere

b. 1 quality hitter and then bet on Groome / Morejon / Avila for #5/6 (that also puts a ton of faith in Martinez)

Possible other trades of RP could be made not to save AAV but to add "serviceable" upgrades ... just not major pieces.

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 9:43 am

I will toss in a long shot ... since making a Rule 5 claim only cost a minimal amount and the player can be returned before the season ... with an open slot ... would the Padres consider a position player claim that could be an specialist upgrade over Batten / Dixon? Thinking with the new rules maybe a speed merchant (a la Estuary Ruiz type) might be actually useful as the 13th position player. Can return the player at any time (small cost) or do one of those minor deals to keep the player and option them. Does buy time until Preller can actually sign some upgrades and don't need to make the give back call until ST.

Might not even need to be a Rule 5 guy, Terrance Gore has elected FA from the NYM. He is not a bat guy, but very fast, and very good base stealer. In 85 ABs, he has 43 steals, and been caught 9 times. Should be real cheap, and can play all 3 OF spots.

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fenn68
Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 11:18 am

Based on my "you are here" calculation ... Padres are about $6MM under the first threshold ($233MM). If as reported they are close to signing Martinez ... that will already push them over the first threshold and probably leave them in the high teens to get to the second threshold ... not adding multiple quality pieces off the FA market with something under $20MM ... assuming that the Padres even want to go that high.

So without a trade of a significant AAV salary (and that is really only Hader without creating a major hole) ... need to pare down that wish list of adds.

If no trade (go mega RP to win) might have to choose between:

a. SP (Senga) and then scramble on low end hitters from somewhere

b. 1 quality hitter and then bet on Groome / Morejon / Avila for #5/6 (that also puts a ton of faith in Martinez)

Possible other trades of RP could be made not to save AAV but to add "serviceable" upgrades ... just not major pieces.

I still see a reworked Yu 3/57 clearing $2.5 per.. and IF we sign Senga a Snell + trade to say Jays (Kirk ) addressing DH/C upgrade big time.. and $$ room to go get a Davies type SP..maybe Strahm to be that 4-5 IP SP arm 6th.. Yu/Senga/Joe/Nick Martinez/Davies/Groome and Co.. with Kirk at C still leaves a few $$ to address 1 bat ..(1/5-6mil bat) or 1/10 (Alfaro non tender) ..can be any number of players from 1/5 to 1/10..to multiple yr deal somewhere in between 5-10.. I could list 10-12 FA bats that could fall I'm this range...

Quote from BoosterSD on November 11, 2022, 11:24 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 9:43 am

I will toss in a long shot ... since making a Rule 5 claim only cost a minimal amount and the player can be returned before the season ... with an open slot ... would the Padres consider a position player claim that could be an specialist upgrade over Batten / Dixon? Thinking with the new rules maybe a speed merchant (a la Estuary Ruiz type) might be actually useful as the 13th position player. Can return the player at any time (small cost) or do one of those minor deals to keep the player and option them. Does buy time until Preller can actually sign some upgrades and don't need to make the give back call until ST.

Might not even need to be a Rule 5 guy, Terrance Gore has elected FA from the NYM. He is not a bat guy, but very fast, and very good base stealer. In 85 ABs, he has 43 steals, and been caught 9 times. Should be real cheap, and can play all 3 OF spots.

We also have Howell in AA who is lighting fast and a + defender at CF/2B/SS with better pop on the bat..and would cost $500k or so less vs the veteran Gore.. and Azocar is on the 40 as well.. while not the SB guy yet..definetely the speed to steal 25+ as PR ..PH or 4th OFer.. especially with new rules..also a better bat vs Gore who can't hit

Have a feeling something like Gallo and Drury will be the Bats added via FA.. while a SP Senga or the like Taillon/Walker/ ..with Clev 1/9 a safety net if we don't get one of these type dudes...

Why are Seidler and Manny @ Coors Field freezing their asses off? MVP related? Checking in on CJ Cron or K Bryant potential chemistry with EL Capitan.. meeting with some minority Pad owner who needs to agree to expand payroll? WTF is going on? 😆 🤣 😂

 

Going to go out on a limb.. meeting with his agent and team lawyer ..Manny agreeing on a restructured deal of 10yrs for $100mil + a 5% Ownershio of the team (worth about $250mil atm)..lowering his AAV to $10 per... giving Padres +$20mil to play.. 😆  👍 👌

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Jeremy Hill
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 11, 2022, 11:37 am

Have a feeling something like Gallo and Drury will be the Bats added via FA.. while a SP Senga or the like Taillon/Walker/ ..with Clev 1/9 a safety net if we don't get one of these type dudes...

I really have no interest in bringing back Drury. He is RHH and was not impressed with his power numbers in Petco. Dont think he is the player for us.

Gallo, is interesting simply because of the TEX background with Preller. And of course, he is a LHH. With the shift and an offseason to recoup from being in NYY, that obviously didnt appeal to him, could be a good bounce back candidate. And Gallo can back up or be the CFer.

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Jeremy Hill
Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 9:17 am

two open slots remain for bench upgrades ... one may be "stronger" as a 1B option. There will be upgrades but until then Dixon and Batten are the incumbents that are on the bubble. Plus with only Soto and Cronenworth productive LHH (Grisham is LHH but not a key to the offense) ... one upgrade at 1B/DH should be a LHH.

I agree with this whole heartedly. We are so RHH heavy. Need some balance. The bat add, whether it be corner OFer or 1B, really needs to be LH. Thats why the likes of Benintendi, Bell, or Gallo have appeal to me over guys like Drury or Myers.

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Jeremy Hilllafnboy13
Quote from MrPadre19 on November 11, 2022, 10:30 am

My ideal off season as of now would be Senga/Nimmo/Myers and head to ST.

 

With the contract that Nimmo will probably get (over $20M per year), and the QO penalties draft wise. I just don't see how a Nimmo signing is realistic.

Although I would be shocked to see it, would not be upset about it though. Would play him in RF, slide Soto back to LF, and leave Grisham in CF. And Nimmo is LHH, one of my priorities.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 11, 2022, 12:02 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 9:17 am

two open slots remain for bench upgrades ... one may be "stronger" as a 1B option. There will be upgrades but until then Dixon and Batten are the incumbents that are on the bubble. Plus with only Soto and Cronenworth productive LHH (Grisham is LHH but not a key to the offense) ... one upgrade at 1B/DH should be a LHH.

I agree with this whole heartedly. We are so RHH heavy. Need some balance. The bat add, whether it be corner OFer or 1B, really needs to be LH. Thats why the likes of Benintendi, Bell, or Gallo have appeal to me over guys like Drury or Myers.

Not a fan of Gallo but why would he sign with SD ... not a great hitter's park and also will have to hit in LA and SF ... neither great for LH power hitters. He needs to prove to someone that he is worth something by playing on a hitter friendly park(s) ... think NL or AL Central. Should take a "discount" just to hit in someplace like CINN.

He has played the last two years on contenders (NYY/LAD) so the lure of a contender is not that compelling having learned that guarantees nothing.

In NY had a below average 84 OPS+ and in LA a below average 83 OPS+. Neither team expressed any desire to retain him.

He would be an incredible gamble to regain his TEX form at a cost in the $8-10MM range from a team trying to fit the payroll to their needs. Hard pass.

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