Quote from fenn68 on August 22, 2022, 2:18 pm

While sorting through the last 30 days stats … again showing a picture different than my perception … but with only a couple of exceptions everyone is above average in wRC+ (clearly skewed by very high BB%). Should have better results … if you believe in the stats.

Put Bell aside since we all have seen his struggles.

Alfaro after a very hot 1st half of the season in the past 30 days has a slash line of 191/235/237 in 51 PA and carrying a 39% K-rate. He seems to taken the role of Luke Voit and swings for the fences every pitch … and misses.

On the flip side after a cold 1st half, Nola is rolling at 245/359/321 in 64 PA … not great but is getting on base (team theme).

Neither Alfaro nor Nola are excelling on defense … so in the mix for 2023 may be a move to get a #1 catcher to be better both offensively and defensively.

Lastly, Drury started with a great first impression and hit three eye catching HR … BUT in between … in 72 PA a slash line of 212/264/394 (with the SLG a product of the 3 HR).

Can’t do much at this point with the catching options and have to rely on Bell to pull it together. Drury is it until he is not … can’t see him being replaced by Batten, Azocar but might see Myers more at DH/1B and would not be surprised to see Beaty up for the road trip as a LHH option (Batten down).

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 22, 2022, 3:39 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 22, 2022, 1:46 pm

A study in perception vs reality while not seeing the full environment … consider the last 30 days where we have seen the Padres struggle and offense seems to be in hibernation.

Padres rank in MLB:

#8 in wRC+

#6 in runs scored

#4 in OBP

#1 in BB%

That is surprisingly good for a team we see as having no offense (think about the other teams)

What seems to be dragging the down (besides the game to game inconsistency)

#13 in SLG (still much higher than thought)

#17 in BA

So, what we have is a team that works the count, takes a walk, gets on base … just can’t hit to drive them in consistently. Back to an earlier post … maybe the effort to be selective and take the walk (good for some of the line-up) actually gets in way when they come up in the clutch? I guess it is possible that players just cannot alter approaches consistently from AB to AB when a big part of AB is instinctive / reactionary vs ML pitchers.

Then again … the rest of MLB is not exciting either … so everything is relative.

#6 in runs score... ok... I mean I guess having left the most runners in scoring position in the MLB for the season is a positive of sorts...just like hitting we will find a hot streak where instead of these 1 for 14 with RISP we going to get some 7 for 14 hot streaks ..

The other thing with us..is we been consistent in losing a few ..winning a few.. with our pitching a prolong losing streak happened in late June til the AS where we went 8-14 or whatever... however we haven't had that HOT Streak that all the other WC chasing teams have had.. we are do for a 12-3 type run

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 23, 2022, 3:10 pm

Castillo added to 40 and in SD... no 26 move yet.. my guess is Wilson pitches tonight and goes down tomorrow

Quote from fenn68 on August 23, 2022, 3:25 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 23, 2022, 3:10 pm

Castillo added to 40 and in SD... no 26 move yet.. my guess is Wilson pitches tonight and goes down tomorrow

Probably correct ... but an outside chance Hader is given some personal time off ... he had his first child in June and his wife had complications with the birth ... now the trade and trying to get his wife and newborn to SD has to be pretty stressful. I recall when he took the paternity leave he was quoted as saying family is a priority over baseball.

Might serve both Hader and the Padres well to allow him some time to settle his personal life in SD before going on a road trip on Friday.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 23, 2022, 3:38 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 23, 2022, 3:25 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 23, 2022, 3:10 pm

Castillo added to 40 and in SD... no 26 move yet.. my guess is Wilson pitches tonight and goes down tomorrow

Probably correct ... but an outside chance Hader is given some personal time off ... he had his first child in June and his wife had complications with the birth ... now the trade and trying to get his wife and newborn to SD has to be pretty stressful. I recall when he took the maternity leave he was quoted as saying family is a priority over baseball.

Might serve both Hader and the Padres well to allow him some time to settle his personal life in SD before going on a road trip on Friday.

Yu Darvish Paternity leave... guess he is missing tomorrow's game... could Castillo be pitcher #13 today and then go down or Wilson down and Groome make his mlb debut tomorrow? .. Scouts been raving about Groome last 2 starts at EP

Quote from fenn68 on August 23, 2022, 3:49 pm

Snell is going tomorrow ... with Monday off he is on regular rest.

Quote from fenn68 on August 24, 2022, 4:25 am

Past 30 days … very troubling with a lot of losses piling up … but is creating a real challenge for analytical vs results … and perception.

Most are frustrated by the lack of offense … can’t score runs. Then look at the more cited team stats and the Padres are #8 in MLB in wRC+ and #8 in runs scored … #4 in OBP and surprisingly #11 in SLG. Stats should indicate a strong offense … wrong. Probably the effect of leveling out strong games vs weak games.

On the flip side, we have been citing strong pitching. Again over the last 30 days SP ERA is only 17th in MLB. Actually the 6 other playoff contenders have better SP ERA. Yes Manaea has not helped but that does not change the ranking that much if you adjust all the teams for their 5th SP.

On the other hand, RP ERA is sitting 6th in MLB … better than all the NL playoff contenders except LAD. That includes a very poor run by Hader. So arguably better than  most think. Martinez and Hill have been in 10 games with a 0.00 ERA … Wilson (7 games) at 1.04 and Suarez (7 games) at 1.13.

I guess a bit of an inditement on over using stats to project results. Plus, always a problem in evaluating production vs a standard that is not reflective of the current league environment.

No matter, Padres are struggling and losing.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 24, 2022, 5:39 am

Almost time to worry.

Schedule gets tough and if we don’t turn this offense around we will miss the playoffs.

Nevermind what will happen “in” the playoffs if we get there.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 24, 2022, 7:53 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 24, 2022, 5:39 am

Almost time to worry.

Schedule gets tough and if we don’t turn this offense around we will miss the playoffs.

Nevermind what will happen “in” the playoffs if we get there.

 

Yup and a 93% ump scorecard with 1 89 runs in favor of Clev dont help..Thats BRUTAL