Quote from MrPadre19 on June 17, 2022, 7:46 am

I didn't see Mazara's name mentioned in the future OF talk(may have missed it) but surely we would keep him around as a 4th OF/insurance type right?

Although he is a Free Agent after this season so I guess this all depends on how he finishes this season and what other offers he gets.

I am currently going to pencil Ruiz in as our Leftfielder....but not Abrams in the OF.

If this was a serious possibility he would be playing there now...although they may be waiting until after the trade deadline for a position change.Staying at SS keeps his trade value higher for this season.

I would think AJ would want to re-sign both Profar and Mazara....he certainly has shown he wants them here so.....

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 17, 2022, 7:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 17, 2022, 6:36 am

Isn’t the QO gone with the new CBA?

I stand corrected

 

Under the terms of the 2022-26 Collective Bargaining Agreement, if MLB and the MLB Players Association agree to the implementation of an International Draft by July 25, 2022, the qualifying offer system will be eliminated starting with the 2022-23 offseason.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 17, 2022, 8:08 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 17, 2022, 7:46 am

I didn't see Mazara's name mentioned in the future OF talk(may have missed it) but surely we would keep him around as a 4th OF/insurance type right?

Although he is a Free Agent after this season so I guess this all depends on how he finishes this season and what other offers he gets.

I am currently going to pencil Ruiz in as our Leftfielder....but not Abrams in the OF.

If this was a serious possibility he would be playing there now...although they may be waiting until after the trade deadline for a position change.Staying at SS keeps his trade value higher for this season.

I would think AJ would want to re-sign both Profar and Mazara....he certainly has shown he wants them here so.....

My thoughts on this for 2023

Spend our Big $$ on Musgrove and 1 or 2 other SP depending on what happens with opt outs... and go with 3 or 4 rookies with some veteran bench players backing them up.. I mean we are 35-6 when we score 3 runs or more so why not.. I would field the following lineup in 2023

 

1. TATIS RF

2. PROFAR LF (4/$40)

3. CRONE ZONE 2B

4. MANNY 3B

5. VOIT DH

6. ALFARO/[B]Campusano[/B]

7. Hosmer 1B .. won't leave 3/39 on the table Boras or not

8. [B]Ruiz[/B] CF

9. [B]CJ Abrams[/B]

 

Bench

Grishman CF/OF

Kim 2B/3B/SS

Mazara COF/DH Lefty so could platoon a bit with Voit..and play semi regular as PH/1x a week RF and 1x in LF.. DH 2x once to give Voit an off day..one when Voit plays 1B...

Obviously this are all internal options and likely there will be a trade or 3 and a few FA signings...but hey its fun to speculate..

 

Say Mazara hits .300/.350/.450 .800 OPS ..in a Baren FA OF class.. would he price himself out of our price range?..I think if he keeps this up thru AS game.. AJP should try and extend him on a Profar like deal..I would..

Quote from fenn68 on June 17, 2022, 8:35 am

Preller … at the trade deadline … will be a bit constrained by the desire to be a contender in 2023 given the FA to be and the unknown of the opt outs … so stick with minimal activity IF the team is still in the catbird seat for the playoffs.

Preller can’t really afford to trade any of the elite prospects (long control / low cost) for short term fixes (short control / high cost) … he needs them to provide a low cost base so he can fund the re-signing of Musgrove and the other key pitchers (not much coming in the Padres’ minors).

Hosmer and Profar are the keys in the opt-out issue. If they stay … two slots are filled but they do consume AAV space in the luxury tax calculation. If they opt out more room to sign the FA pitching.

I can’t see them dealing Abrams (way too high a ceiling) but where he plays in the field may not be determined until ST … he is such a good athlete pretty confident the Padres believe he can quickly adapt. Start with I agree that Tatis is the SS (unless injured again). However, IF Hosmer goes … maybe Abrams is at 2B and Cronenworth is at 1B. IF Profar goes … maybe Abrams is in the OF with Ruiz and Grisham. Maybe Abrams is everywhere as needed with the DH opening spots in the field.

Melvin seem to prefer to construct around pitching - defense - speed … and this is working. Abrams and Ruiz (if they develop in the ML) are perfect fits for the offense / defense while freeing up money for expensive pitching.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 17, 2022, 8:52 am

Did a quick and dirty on where the Padres will be in 2023 (AAV basis) toward the luxury tax which I believe will be $233MM. Should be in good shape to make quality offers to the FA pitchers.

FA to be will create $52.8MM space … the target rises opening up another $3.6MM … offset in part by estimated arbitration increases of $5.3MM … so roughly $51.1MM space if no opt outs. Certainly enough to re-sign Musgrove (priority #1) and at least one of Manaea or Clevinger. Probably not Rogers.

The four opt outs represent $36.9MM of AAV … so more room IF they do opt out … Hosmer is at $18.0MM. Profar is at $7.0MM … so extending him at maybe $10MM would not eat that much of the available space … incremental only $3.0MM.

If they don’t opt out … Padres could pick up some more room by non-tenders of Lamet and Voit … combined if you consider the potential arbitration results would be about $10MM.

A lot of IF and THEN conditions making knee jerk moves now fraught with peril.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 17, 2022, 9:03 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 17, 2022, 8:52 am

Did a quick and dirty on where the Padres will be in 2023 (AAV basis) toward the luxury tax which I believe will be $233MM. Should be in good shape to make quality offers to the FA pitchers.

FA to be will create $52.8MM space … the target rises opening up another $3.6MM … offset in part by estimated arbitration increases of $5.3MM … so roughly $51.1MM space if no opt outs. Certainly enough to re-sign Musgrove (priority #1) and at least one of Manaea or Clevinger. Probably not Rogers.

The four opt outs represent $36.9MM of AAV … so more room IF they do opt out … Hosmer is at $18.0MM. Profar is at $7.0MM … so extending him at maybe $10MM would not eat that much of the available space … incremental only $3.0MM.

If they don’t opt out … Padres could pick up some more room by non-tenders of Lamet and Voit … combined if you consider the potential arbitration results would be about $10MM.

A lot of IF and THEN conditions making knee jerk moves now fraught with peril.

One thing to keep in mind is if we stay under the rest of the way (Lux Tax wise) the Lux Tax resets for next offseason so AJP might have some lead way to make a One year deal or 2 in the $40mil (Kershaw or Verlander) range or 2 in the $20mil 1 yr range (Comforto see what u got/Clevinger see of you can stay healthy types)

Quote from fenn68 on June 17, 2022, 9:07 am

OF: Ruiz/Abram(LF/DH) - Grisham - Profar (resigned and moved to RF) … Azocar 5th OF (cheap - good defense - CF)

INF: Machado - Tatis - Cronenworth - Hosmer with Kim first sub (Abrams back-up in case of emergency — see Tatis injury history).

C: Nota - Alfaro - Campusano (C/DH/1B)

That is 13 position players and assumes a non-tender (or trade) of Voit and not being able to resign Mazara under the payroll constraints.

—————-

SP (6): Gore - Darvish - Snell - Musgrove (resigned) - Manaea (resigned) - Clevinger (resigned) … assume Martinez does opt out.

RP (7): Pomeranz - Castillo - Morejon - Crismatt - Garcia - Suarez - Wilson

That is 13 pitchers … but very little minor league reliable depth making the re-signing the SP critical along with Darvish and Snell FA after 2023.

So, my call is to go all in on re-signing SP and gamble on the low cost / high ceiling prospects for the position players … and that will still get them to very near the new luxury tax threshold.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 17, 2022, 9:36 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 17, 2022, 9:07 am

OF: Ruiz/Abram(LF/DH) - Grisham - Profar (resigned and moved to RF) … Azocar 5th OF (cheap - good defense - CF)

INF: Machado - Tatis - Cronenworth - Hosmer with Kim first sub (Abrams back-up in case of emergency — see Tatis injury history).

C: Nota - Alfaro - Campusano (C/DH/1B)

That is 13 position players and assumes a non-tender (or trade) of Voit and not being able to resign Mazara under the payroll constraints.

—————-

SP (6): Gore - Darvish - Snell - Musgrove (resigned) - Manaea (resigned) - Clevinger (resigned) … assume Martinez does opt out.

RP (7): Pomeranz - Castillo - Morejon - Crismatt - Garcia - Suarez - Wilson

That is 13 pitchers … but very little minor league reliable depth making the re-signing the SP critical along with Darvish and Snell FA after 2023.

So, my call is to go all in on re-signing SP and gamble on the low cost / high ceiling prospects for the position players … and that will still get them to very near the new luxury tax threshold.

Makes a ton of sense as even more Bats Hassell/Wood/Mears and Merrill 3 CF/OF types and a SS/INF.. will be ready or just about by 2024....

Remember BAEZ.. Wethers.. Reiss K... and those 2 -3 guys in SA that look terrific... as well...

 

Best thing that could happen to us is Profar doesn't opt out ...and Hosmer does.... tbh..

Voit is a big YES arb for me... He appears comfortable now and won't get off to such a poor start next yr making his current numbers even > in 2023... Besides if HOS opts out.. he could play 1B 1 or 2xs a week with Crone sliding to 2B..

Quote from dusty on June 17, 2022, 12:09 pm

Although I do think Hosmer does bring a bit more value than we think, I still believe Hosmer having a big second half is perfect storm for the Padres. Ensures us having another solid bat in the lineup the rest of the season and pushes Hosmer to opt out while clearing a clear path for Abrams to play second while shifting Cronenworth to first. Mazara is a huge lift to us right now and he will be an interesting free agent watch. Possibly a 1/2 year 3-8 million dollar contract lining up for him. Voit is another tricky one. If he can be a 250-260 hitter the rest of the way with 15 homers, I think he forces us to keep him another season.

 

With the way the roster is playing out, I am a firm believer in keeping whatever pitching we can. Pay Musgrove, Manea, Clevinger (if he can get and stay healthy for the second half of the season). I would not sleep on Morejon though as Preller may be banking on him being healthy and a full offseason with Niebla to give him a rotation spot for next season. Would the Padres resign Manaea and have 4 lefties and Darvish and Musgrove as the two right handers next season?

Myers coming off the books, non-tendering Lamet, I expect Martinez is off the books as well and Hosmer. That gives us quite a bit of flexibility to get three starters resigned and depending on the arms coming back in the pen, figure out what we want to do with Rogers (pay the man or let him go). Good dilemmas to be in with flexibility to keep the players needed. I do believe Voit's power and ability to take a walk(even if not hitting 250) does enough to make the lineup better.