Quote from Randy Manese on December 27, 2020, 1:48 pm

The payroll the Pirates want to shed is Polanco and you're not going to find too many buyers for him unless tied to someone like Musgrove.  Price for Musgrove goes way down if they want to move Polanco but Pirates have to be really creative and take back some of the money due to make it work.  Don't see Polanco in Padres future.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 27, 2020, 2:09 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 27, 2020, 12:37 pm

LOL.  Fenn & Mr. P, we may have to agree to disagree on Musgrove.  Can't argue simultaneously that Lucchesi has some significant "value" at least in $ just b/c he's cheap (he does!) even though he did NOT have Musgrove's September, but that Musgrove is only worth a "couple of distant prospects".

I will admit that a lot of my fixation on Musgrove is that Lucchesi & Javy Guerra are perfect trade fits for Pittsburgh, so when I had that thought it did lead me to "how much more would it take"?  I decided a very good, but < a top 100 prospect.  In MY mind, Morejon still is top 100, but most have graduated him, and the durability/RP risk would put him near the bottom any top 100 list.

Bell  & Musgrove both have 2 years control in Arb; but Bell at a higher starting salary & 1B a way lower premium than SP, so Musgrove will cost much > Bell in trade.  Most likely outcome is Pitt does not trade Musgrove.

 

If you are the Pirates you are talking up Musgroves’ September......if you are anyone else you are pointing too every other month of his career.

He’s a fine starter.....he just isn’t better than what we already have....at least not enough better to give up Morejons’ potential.

I understand the “shine” may have come off Morejon a little....but the kid is still only 21!

He’s the same age as MacKenzie Gore  for Gwynns sake!

 

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 27, 2020, 3:50 pm

Theoretically, could argue we just keep ALL our "elite" SP prospects:  Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers, Baez... and have a great 1-5 SP rotation for 5 years.   But it isn't going to work like that for lots of obvious reasons.  But a subtle one that might force a trade out of 1 or more guys is simply getting through the IP needed from SP's this season after so little work & no "real game" experience for many of those guys.  May actually have to trade a guy away to get more experience to help protect all the remaining guys health/arms.

So (easier) game #2:  Rank these 5 guys from 1) least to 5) most willing to trade in general (don't worry about return)

Mine:  1) Gore, 2) Weathers, 3) Patino, 4) Morejon, 5) Baez

Anyone not putting Gore #1 is putting way too much weight on the needs of the weird 2020 season.  But I have jumped Weathers up over Patino & Morejon.  He's only an inch taller than Luis, & 2" than Adrian, but (too?) much more "solid" than Patino.  A LH his age making the jump from low 90's to high 90's FB with his pedigree, I don't see how he's below #50 prospect MLB just on that.  I would actually rank Patino AND Morejon ahead of him as prospects; they have higher ceilings.  But just have this gut feeling that he will be a good, solid, MLB SP.  I've always been a little lower on Patino, mostly due to his size; awfully small frame, but then again, look at Zach Davies.  Think he's a little overrated for the degree of RP risk he fundamentally carries.

Morejon clearly has MLB stuff, but can he maintain it long enough in game to really "cash in" his potential?   Baez' size problem is the other direction.  Can he keep his mechanics good & athletic.  Suspect most have him "most expendable" due to age & being a little overshadowed by the others.

 

Quote from Ben Davey on December 27, 2020, 8:10 pm

Starting in a few weeks (mid Jan usually) you'll start to hear interviews with Preller/Tingler where at some point they will be asked and talk about the rotation.  It will be interesting to hear what names they give.

1. We still dont know if Lamet is healthy (Preller gave some weird remark a week or so ago that IF he is healthy they expect him to be the ace)
2. Is Morejon being fullymoved to the rotation or is he another swing season.
3. What happened to Baez?
4. Can Gore crack the rotation?

Because as of right now our rotation of people we know to be healthy is... Davies, Paddack, ???

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2020, 9:08 pm

IF the health of Lamet remains a TBD ... and I would say so does a full rebound for Paddack ... really only Davies is in the category of a reliable SP at this past performance level. So, maybe only one SP in place ... four TBD. Can’t guess how those four get resolved but not going to fill them via trades / FA with “really good” options that cost a ton. Plus makes dealing the internal options that may be needed just harder.

Then toss in the unknown length of the schedule and the potential of a 6 man rotation ... making the innings issue a lesser problem.

Might just lead Preller to wait until the landscape is clearer to make any big move. I could see two strategies ... one go “high end” with at least a 3 year deal or go “low end” on filler one year deals at lower cost (e.g. A.J. Happ type). Looking like more of a need for volume over one quality arm ... so maybe a combo via FA fits best.

IF Lamet is out ... Padres are out for 2021 .... since think they are on the bubble with him around even as an ace.

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2020, 9:22 pm

Then again:

Padres acquire Blake Snell from TB for Patino - Mejia (C) - Wilcox - Hunt (C).

Since if you recall my posts ... I do not like Snell ... so really bummed by this deal and would have thought that package (or parts individually) could have generated a better return(s) even if not ones having the national reputation.

Snell consumes $11MM of payroll space in 2021 .... and now SD needs a catcher unless they are all in on Campusano. 3 years control (cash: $10.5 - 12.5 - 16.0MM). Net opens one roster slot.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 27, 2020, 9:50 pm

I need a "fully healthy" physical to be okay with this deal - don't want to end up with another Clevinger situation. After his Cy Young season at age 25, has missed time with issues on his shoulder and elbow, although not biceps or forearm strain.  I would have rather done the reported Darvish deal, if it involved Morejon and a similar package of prospects that also avoided us trading Campusano or Abrams.

However, if Snell completely checks out, then I can understand the lower salary costs in the next 3 years and the need to continue to win while we have a young veteran lineup before we start changing out those pieces - Pham, Myers, Hosmer - over time.  Mejia still young enough to possibly bounce back as a major league hitter while Hunt and Wilcox are unfinished products that could be solid or never make it.  Losing Patino really hurts, so I hope we actually are getting the 2018 version of Snell; don't think we overpaid if it is this version.  Still think we should be in the mix for a low cost 1-year SP to help our other pitching prospects grow in the minors.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2020, 1:44 pm

Given our speculation about having the arms to cover a full season of innings ... especially with not knowing about Lamet until he throws in ST and concerns about Paddack reliability and a legit concern any of the prospect can chalk up big innings, been trying to ID a veteran bottom of the rotation arm (healthy innings eater history) who MIGHT come in at a reasonable price (if the Padres have more to deploy).

Might inquire about J.A. Happ ... LHP who is 38 years old and will not command a multi-year deal. Has been at his best in his 30s (except for the stint in 2019 NYY). Not the type of player most teams would plunk down any major money. MTBTR has him signing for 1 year / $6MM.

This year may be his last hurrah .... does he hold for the biggest money (and potentially not get signed) or might he sign a more reasonable deal early to get the guaranteed money and play for a playoff quality team (Padres?). Incentive laden deal (although the thinks the NYY gamed that in 2020 costing him money)?

Good pitcher ... healthy ... delivers innings .... just no idea on his motivations.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 2, 2021, 1:16 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2020, 9:22 pm

Then again:

Padres acquire Blake Snell from TB for Patino - Mejia (C) - Wilcox - Hunt (C).

Since if you recall my posts ... I do not like Snell ... so really bummed by this deal and would have thought that package (or parts individually) could have generated a better return(s) even if not ones having the national reputation.

Snell consumes $11MM of payroll space in 2021 .... and now SD needs a catcher unless they are all in on Campusano. 3 years control (cash: $10.5 - 12.5 - 16.0MM). Net opens one roster slot.

Fenn, I feel you on this trade.  But I'm curious how you feel about it now in conjunction with the Darvish trade also?

My initial gut reaction was this was a really steep price to pay.  I'm sure it's not popular in Tampa right now, but it's hard to see the Rays not getting at least 1 good MLB regular out of this deal.  Patino is a Top 25-50 MLB prospect (although IMO a little overrated last 2 years), Mejia is an arrow down guy who was a Top 50 prospect and still has a good chance at being a better offensive player than Victor Caratini, Wilcox was a top 20-25 Draft prospect probably in top 200 MLB prospects, and Blake Hunt has apparently improved so much in the last year physically, that he's skyrocketed up to top 200 lock, maybe even top 100.

What I DIDN'T like at first glance was the inclusion of a second Catcher AND Elite RH SP prospect. But pre-Darvish, the more I thought about it, the more I liked the trade.  DEFINITELY seemed like the guy to trade for over Carrasco & Sonny Gray. Post-Darvish, it makes even more sense to upgrade from Davies & G. Richards, and have a strong TOR for years forward with payroll visibility & $$ apparently acceptable to Seidler.  May actually help with a Tatis extension.

Padres POV:  Really had to find established MLB SP's ready to pitch "now" on playoff caliber team.  Liked the quality "differential" at roughly the same AAV of Snell > FA market.   May have clearly felt that Patino is at least a year away from helping MLB club.  Mejia even if last year was a "mulligan", was clearly sandwiched by Nola & Campusano.  When/where would his free-swinging approach play & fit?   If you look more closely:  Hunt & Wilcox are "pinched" also.  Campusano ahead of & > Hunt means he's a MLB backup at best to Pads.  Wilcox expected to move quickly as a collegiate 1st round $ SP... but he would still have: Gore, Morejon, Baez, & Weathers ahead of him developmentally.  Looks like a RHP prospect "vaccum" at first glance with only HS draftee Lange 4 years away.... but look closer:  Lawson, Espinoza, & M. Thomspon all lurking @ A+ / AA this season.  Extremely likely 1 to all 3 get shifted to/remain RP; but also highly likely 1 of the 3 breaks out & progresses as SP.

Padres win:  If None of the 4 develop into starters.  If Snell helps Padres reach/win World Series regardless of prospects' outcome.

Rays POV:  Unlikely but not inconceivable that Patino "=" Snell in MLB in 2021.  Need C, getting 2 good C prospects in trade unheard of.  Excellent chance 1 develops into at least an OK starter.  Wilcox a very high upside lottery ticket.  He & Patino's floors as back of bullpen guys make trade tough to utterly "lose".

Rays win:  If they get 1 "good" (say #3) SP and 1 "OK" starting C.