Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2021, 11:09 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 13, 2021, 10:31 am

How is it that Kevin Kopps wasn't even ranked in the top 250?

Wasn't he the top ranked Reliever in the NCAA?

 

 

A combo of a 24 year old 6 year college senior and just a 90 MPH FB probably just does not resonate with the scouts who contribute to rankings. Does not mean he will not be effective and make the ML but probably not with the "upside" those ranking like.

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Listened to one analyst that said some team use statistical models that factor in age (as a negative) and then just follow their model. In some cases, a 19 year old HS kid who is only 6 months older than an 18 year old will be dropped because of the model. Other teams will focus on the actual scouting "eye test".

Makes sense using the eye test but the analytical types have stats showing the advantage is with younger and will not make exceptions. Just is.

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2021, 11:13 am

Round 18 until the Padres take their gamble and select Gage Jump a HS LHP ranked #43 ... probably have a good idea they can lure him away from college.

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2021, 11:40 am

Round 20 Padres select RHP Chase Burns (HS) ranked #47.

Maybe a toss up between Jump and Burns with Padres taking the one that takes the money first?

Quote from JasonE135 on July 13, 2021, 1:20 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2021, 11:40 am

Round 20 Padres select RHP Chase Burns (HS) ranked #47.

Maybe a toss up between Jump and Burns with Padres taking the one that takes the money first?

Burns seems to be pretty dead-set on going to college. He has absolutely premium stuff and would seem to be well worth a high 6 or even 7 digit bonus.

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2021, 2:00 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on July 13, 2021, 1:20 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2021, 11:40 am

Round 20 Padres select RHP Chase Burns (HS) ranked #47.

Maybe a toss up between Jump and Burns with Padres taking the one that takes the money first?

Burns seems to be pretty dead-set on going to college. He has absolutely premium stuff and would seem to be well worth a high 6 or even 7 digit bonus.

On the other side, Burns has a funky max effort delivery creating a potentially elevated injury risk so, maybe at take the money and run is a better bet than college.

Not coming cheap but would $1MM (late 2nd round money) get it done? Less considering he was not taken by anyone for that price?

Padres probably don’t have that much to deploy and likely he will go to college BUT there must have been feeling in the Padres camp that their is some chance he will pass on college or they would have used that pick on someone else.

This goes for Jump too … commitment to UCLA. In his case the concern may be his size (smallish) may not get him to that next level after 3 years in college and elevate his draft position and yield more of a payout.

IF money and playing professional baseball is the driver for either of them … getting let’s say 3rd round money now may be appealing vs. gambling on development over injury getting them significantly higher money by being a 1st or 2nd round pick.

Of course if the Padres don’t have at least $500K under slot money plus the $125K base … probably a moot question.

Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2021, 10:15 am

There is a chance we don't see some of these draftees playing in 2021 considering:

1. the rules for the Domestic player limit (excludes DSL) is 180 "assigned" to minor league rosters ... that seems to also exclude optioned 40 man roster players from the parent club and 60 day IL players and probably a couple of other categories of players not on the active rosters but seems to include the 7 day IL types. Did not do an actual count but the Padres seem to be right at (or near) that level.
2. It "appears" that sending a player who is in the AZ back to the DSL does NOT clear a spot ... basically once included they remain.
3. Since the later draft and likely time to sign will get players "in camp" late July and probably some time to get into playing shape ... only about a month left of game time ... combined with the fact that these draftees get added only when the are assigned to a team (or 5 days after the season) ... might make sense to wait until after the season and have them assigned and then make the necessary roster cuts to fit them in the 180 limit.

So, maybe for most the plan is to sign them and bring them to AZ to get oriented and work out ... just not get officially assigned to a club. Then also have them at the Fall instructs for development. Save the bad new releases of existing players until after the season. Plus after the season, a number of the minor league players become FA and the makes some room ... just not probably at the right levels but it does buy time until the spring.

Quote from LynchMob on July 14, 2021, 12:58 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2021, 11:09 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 13, 2021, 10:31 am

How is it that Kevin Kopps wasn't even ranked in the top 250?

Wasn't he the top ranked Reliever in the NCAA?

 

 

A combo of a 24 year old 6 year college senior and just a 90 MPH FB probably just does not resonate with the scouts who contribute to rankings. Does not mean he will not be effective and make the ML but probably not with the "upside" those ranking like.

====

Listened to one analyst that said some team use statistical models that factor in age (as a negative) and then just follow their model. In some cases, a 19 year old HS kid who is only 6 months older than an 18 year old will be dropped because of the model. Other teams will focus on the actual scouting "eye test".

Makes sense using the eye test but the analytical types have stats showing the advantage is with younger and will not make exceptions. Just is.

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/kevin-kopps-padres-third-round-pick-2021-mlb-draft

But Kopps' best pitch is a mid-80s cutter that was practically untouchable this year. The way Kopps views it, his cutter is actually three separate pitches -- depending on how much depth he wants and whether he wants to throw it for a strike or a chase.

"It's just about watching the hitter’s swing -- you can tell what they're doing, what will work against what kind of swing they have," Kopps said.

That's the root of Kopps' genius, added Arkansas head coach Dave Van Horn.

"Teams would wait him out, try and get him to throw cutters out of the zone," Van Horn said. "They wouldn't swing at them, because they were swinging at too many bad pitches. So Kevin would just start throwing the cutter for a strike. He'd get ahead, and then Kevin would just see how they were trying to attack him. He's just so smart. He figures it out."

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2021, 4:52 pm

#1 pick Jackson Merrill signs for $1.8MM (per J. Callis) … that is $670K UNDER slot.

Highly likely some (if not all) the college picks (total of 9) taken through round 10 sign for under slot creating a large pool for signing one (if not both) of the two HS picks (round 18 and round 20). $125,000 plus whatever under slot money available could get at least one well over $1MM bonus.

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2021, 11:19 am

Clearly did not expect this … per Jim Callis … Padres sign #2 pick HS OF Woods for … wait for it … $2.6MM / $1.5MM OVER SLOT.

We saw Woods was higher ranked but did not guess the Padres wanted him so badly to go to that level … way more than #1 pick Merrill. I guess my view of Woods has just been raised as a future prospect.

That should take out all the under slot monies accumulated in the first 10 round signings and ends the potential signings of the two HS pitchers from day 3. They may have been the back-up plan if the Woods signing did not come together.