Quote from JasonE135 on April 7, 2021, 1:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on April 7, 2021, 8:57 am

A lot of "ifs" in sequencing but when both Grisham and Tatis are active ... hopefully in 10 days ... would expect both O'Grady and Marcano to be optioned.

Could we make the argument that Marcano is optioned when Grisham returns (I guess the unknown is how O'Grady was looking at the alternate site). Grisham goes to CF ... Pham back to LF ... Profar to #1 super utility / PH. Mateo remains #2 super utility / PH / PR. So for the following 7 days ... are the Padres better with O'Grady as the LHPH and more proficient in the OF or Marcano as the LHPH and with INF skills?

It seems like the minimum recovery time for this kind of injury is 2-4 weeks. I would not expect Tatis back in 10 days. Hope sure, but not expect.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 11, 2021, 10:19 pm

Did Pads ever even formally announce who is on the taxi squad this first road trip?

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 11, 2021, 11:26 pm

UGGH.... this season has been such an insane roller coaster of highs & lows already, I don't know if I can make it through the season.

I REALLY wish Morejon hadn't thrown 1 more pitch if he felt it tighten up the pitch before... gotta try to dodge the bullet if you can.  Now we have to hold our breath & hope he can.

The ONLY silver lining of Morejon getting hurt when he did is it was early in the last game @ Texas... giving team more time to make move/s:

• IL for Morejon seems certain; I think they have to recall Crismatt for the length after an 8+ IP bullpen day.
• Pads/Tingler have already conveyed they want Darvish & Snell game 1 & 2  @Pitt to line up for game 2 & 3 vs LAD; good!
• ... but I think it's INSANE to pitch Musgrove on regular rest in game 3 @ Pitt.  I would insert Weathers here to start...
• .... BUT leave Paddack on normal rest (only threw 70+ pitches) for game 4 (day/"getaway game") @ Pitt....
• .... Setting Musgrove up for Game 1 vs LAD on 2 "extra" days rest.  But again, 1 extra should be a given after 112 P no-hitter.  I GET the whole "pitch vs his old team" thing, but I 'd do it anyway vs. lining Paddack up twice vs LAD.

This scenario lets you best navigate Lamet's recall until AFTER Weathers (or Paddack?) has made his starts in the heart of the 17 games in a row stretch.  Sets up:  Games 1, 2, 3, vs Milwaukee (sandwiched by LAD series):  1 - Weathers, 2- Paddack, 3- "Not Lamet"??  spot start someone here.... up for Weathers or Paddack; 1 day cameo; then down for a RP 

Which in turn sets up:  1-4 @ LAD:  Musgrove, Darvish, Snell (all on an extra day rest), and... Lamet (up for the RP) .... move to a 5-man rotation after the LAD series for 3+ weeks.... can re-set the 5-man rotation on extra rest then with 2 off days around a 2 game series @Dbacks.

Protects Musgrove, protects Lamet, maxes usage of "6th" SP until through tough stretch, and puts best SP vs LAD

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 12, 2021, 5:16 am

Every potential strategy has pitfalls (maybe). Pitchers being creatures of habit messing with their routines for game prep could yield lesser than normal results (or better I guess).

Moving Musgrove back 1 day makes some sense for recovery purposes (unless they don’t see the 112 pitches last outing as “stressful” pitches). Moving him back 2 days MIGHT give him too much rest and impact his command. Basically not get the Musgrove we want v the LAD.

Guessing when Lamet returns it is directly to SP. That would allow him to warm up at his comfort level (better if still a concern about injury) and gives him a lower “stress” scenario to readjust to MLB game play. Despite the optimistic reports on Lamet’s recovery (50+ quality pitches in an alternate site game) ... they want Lamet for the long run and good chance they lag him past the LAD series after another alternate site game of 75+ pitches.

I am beginning to lean toward not over thinking the rotation and just go with Weathers on Friday v LAD (some advantage of the LAD not familiar with him) and then Crismatt / Stammen as long men.

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 12, 2021, 5:46 am

After not wanting to over think the rotation ... I am going to over think it.

1. Beat PITT ... Beat LA

2. Lose to PITT ... Beat LA

3. Beat PITT ... Lose to LA

4. Lose to PITT ... Lose to LA

Probably the order of desirability of  outcomes but have to factor in the opposition’s SP impacting the probabilities of wins. Don’t know the probables for PITT or LAD.

Given the SP options for Friday v LAD ... that game will be a challenge if the LAD are rolling out one of their better SP. If so, and if they really want to avoid the double loss scenario are the Padres better off (for the season) going with the better SP option against PITT to secure the higher probability win?

Over thinking?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 12, 2021, 7:10 am

Moving Musgrove back 1 day makes some sense for recovery purposes (unless they don’t see the 112 pitches last outing as “stressful” pitches).

Musgrove self described as "exhausted" after the no-hitter due to large # of breaking pitches thrown:  Per the Athletic: the last 35 pitches of Musgrove’s 112-pitch no-hitter were sliders, curveballs and cutters, according to STATS Perform.  There's also the "positive" but real additional burden of being in the limelight Nationally after the no-hitter & the sheer amount of time the interviews, calls, texts take.  The getaway 4th game in Pitt is the equivalent of a 10:00 AM PST start; really = "1+" extra day rest, not 2.  But my biggest reason is simply calling "BS" on the tired old "P's are creatures of habit" trope.  It's like the "hitters need to be in the exact same spot in the lineup every day".  It just doesn't hold up to modern even simple analytics, but more fundamentally, the schedule itself:   no one will be on a "normal schedule" when the Pads have a day off, 2 vs Dbacks, then another day off.  Or the following 3 weeks:  6 games, then an off day... can't control it; take it as it comes, be grateful for the extra rest.

The season is a marathon, not a sprint.  Pads went all in to compete with the LAD for the division.  I don't see why, at this stage of the season, when we CAN alter the rotations, we wouldn't line up Musgrove to make the Game 1 start in BOTH LAD series... over Paddack.   Pretty sure if you give Joe the choice of a game 1 home start vs LAD or the getaway game vs his old team (which admittedly he would be more emotionally invested in then anyone else), I know what he would say.

And more from the Athletic from a former pitching coach of Joe's:  ...Under Padres pitching coach Larry Rothschild, he has altered his pitch mix, making far greater use of his cutter. Granted, his sample size consists of only two starts. But Musgrove has gone from 39.1 percent fastballs in 2020 to 19.5 percent, according to FanGraphs, and from 5.9 percent cutters to 24.7 percent. “He’s got about seven pitches,” Marin said, chuckling.

Searage, though, worries about Musgrove throwing his cutter too often.

“I don’t like that. The cutter is a very forceful pitch. It puts a lot of stress on the elbow,” said Searage, who is not currently working in baseball. “Before (Taillon) got hurt (requiring Tommy John surgery in May 2019), I remember one start in Texas, it was like, ‘Whoa, we’re throwing cutters to both sides of the plate.’ I mean, it was over-usage. I don’t know if you could attribute (the injury) to it. It’s a good pitch, but if it’s overused — this is my opinion now — I think you set yourself up for an ‘owie’ that is going to take some time to come back from.”

Quote from fenn68 on April 12, 2021, 8:35 am

Maybe wrong but though I saw an article some time back that Musgrove changed his pitching mix near the end of 2020 in PITT and that generated the improvement at the end of Sept. Maybe Rothschild is just doing more?

Tend to agree that the high breaking ball approach is high risk for injury ... on the other hand his previous higher FB content did not result in success. So is the choice between a mediocre FB pitcher but healthy and an elite breaking ball pitcher that will only have a short (but spectacular) run?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 12, 2021, 9:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 12, 2021, 8:35 am

Maybe wrong but though I saw an article some time back that Musgrove changed his pitching mix near the end of 2020 in PITT and that generated the improvement at the end of Sept. Maybe Rothschild is just doing more?

Tend to agree that the high breaking ball approach is high risk for injury ... on the other hand his previous higher FB content did not result in success. So is the choice between a mediocre FB pitcher but healthy and an elite breaking ball pitcher that will only have a short (but spectacular) run?

 

The 2 game % use #'s are pretty meaningless; had something special going, started discarding pitches in the 4th/5th inning to go with best stuff the last 3.  But Musgrove did change pitch mix AND shortened his delivery last year which both led to the dramatic results he posted last September.

I think there's a balance there.  Yes, his FB is nothing special; not like a Darvish situation where he could use it more but "back pockets" it as a weapon.   But obviously have to use it sometimes.   So maybe wind up between 2020's already decreased 40% FB and current < 20%.... 30-33% over course of season?

 

Quote from WindsorUK on April 12, 2021, 2:24 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 12, 2021, 7:10 am

Moving Musgrove back 1 day makes some sense for recovery purposes (unless they don’t see the 112 pitches last outing as “stressful” pitches).

Musgrove self described as "exhausted" after the no-hitter due to large # of breaking pitches thrown:  Per the Athletic: the last 35 pitches of Musgrove’s 112-pitch no-hitter were sliders, curveballs and cutters, according to STATS Perform.  There's also the "positive" but real additional burden of being in the limelight Nationally after the no-hitter & the sheer amount of time the interviews, calls, texts take.  The getaway 4th game in Pitt is the equivalent of a 10:00 AM PST start; really = "1+" extra day rest, not 2.  But my biggest reason is simply calling "BS" on the tired old "P's are creatures of habit" trope.  It's like the "hitters need to be in the exact same spot in the lineup every day".  It just doesn't hold up to modern even simple analytics, but more fundamentally, the schedule itself:   no one will be on a "normal schedule" when the Pads have a day off, 2 vs Dbacks, then another day off.  Or the following 3 weeks:  6 games, then an off day... can't control it; take it as it comes, be grateful for the extra rest.

The season is a marathon, not a sprint.  Pads went all in to compete with the LAD for the division.  I don't see why, at this stage of the season, when we CAN alter the rotations, we wouldn't line up Musgrove to make the Game 1 start in BOTH LAD series... over Paddack.   Pretty sure if you give Joe the choice of a game 1 home start vs LAD or the getaway game vs his old team (which admittedly he would be more emotionally invested in then anyone else), I know what he would say.

And more from the Athletic from a former pitching coach of Joe's:  ...Under Padres pitching coach Larry Rothschild, he has altered his pitch mix, making far greater use of his cutter. Granted, his sample size consists of only two starts. But Musgrove has gone from 39.1 percent fastballs in 2020 to 19.5 percent, according to FanGraphs, and from 5.9 percent cutters to 24.7 percent. “He’s got about seven pitches,” Marin said, chuckling.

Searage, though, worries about Musgrove throwing his cutter too often.

“I don’t like that. The cutter is a very forceful pitch. It puts a lot of stress on the elbow,” said Searage, who is not currently working in baseball. “Before (Taillon) got hurt (requiring Tommy John surgery in May 2019), I remember one start in Texas, it was like, ‘Whoa, we’re throwing cutters to both sides of the plate.’ I mean, it was over-usage. I don’t know if you could attribute (the injury) to it. It’s a good pitch, but if it’s overused — this is my opinion now — I think you set yourself up for an ‘owie’ that is going to take some time to come back from.”

Real or not Brian, it exists!

Superstition in baseball is still HUGE!

Snell didn't move off the rail from the 4th inning on during the no hitter.And he's so obviously invested in his superstition that he didn't let Morejon move either.

Modern analytics have their place but it will be A LONG TIME before they  supercede superstition.