Quote from JasonE135 on February 11, 2020, 4:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2020, 6:55 am

A lot of ways to spin the SP on the playoff teams ... none averaged even 6 innings per start. Washington was the best at 5.8 innings then the norm was around 5.5 innings. The down side outliers were the NYY at an amazing 4.8 and TB who played the "starter game" to just mess up the stats.

A bunch of different approaches with WASH and STL each having 4 SP with over 160 innings and 2 of them over 180 innings ... maybe the more classical approach to SP. However, making the playoffs can work without the classical approach .... MILW had ZERO SP to go 160 innings and the NYY had only 1 go above 160. NYY did it with a killer BP and mixing and matching SP throughout the season.

Looks as though the Padres recognize the venerability of their SP to go deep into games and eat a lot of innings ... so Preller is building their own killer bullpen to get their SP to the end of the season with a degree of remaining effectiveness. Can't "force" any of the Padres SP into the Verlander / Cole mode of workhorses ... so try to win with then elite bullpen ... worked for the NYY. Don't see an issue with the Padres putting out a SP staff that "should" mirror the 2019 playoff teams at about 5.5 innings per start and then seeing Paddack and Davies at a minimum breaking that 160 inning threshold (maybe to 180+). We already know Lucchesi can ... just not effectively.

More worried about Richards and / or Lamet being able to pitch a full season of games ... given their return from injury. Padres need 5 effective SP to compete from the start to the end of the season and get their wins from top to bottom of the rotation. No clear dominate upper rotation arms to carry weak options at the bottom of the rotation.

Take one of Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Richards out early and wins will be left on the table if the replacement is the "loser" of Lucchesi and Quantrill. Not sure any of the prospects are ready for the start of the season. Leave wins on the table early ... out of contention early.

Last year we had Strahm and Marg. in the rotation. We don't have anyone that weak in this year's rotation. Wasn't Lucchesie our OD starter last year? Our #3 from last year is now our #5. That's a pretty big improvement.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 11, 2020, 4:49 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on February 11, 2020, 4:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2020, 6:55 am

A lot of ways to spin the SP on the playoff teams ... none averaged even 6 innings per start. Washington was the best at 5.8 innings then the norm was around 5.5 innings. The down side outliers were the NYY at an amazing 4.8 and TB who played the "starter game" to just mess up the stats.

A bunch of different approaches with WASH and STL each having 4 SP with over 160 innings and 2 of them over 180 innings ... maybe the more classical approach to SP. However, making the playoffs can work without the classical approach .... MILW had ZERO SP to go 160 innings and the NYY had only 1 go above 160. NYY did it with a killer BP and mixing and matching SP throughout the season.

Looks as though the Padres recognize the venerability of their SP to go deep into games and eat a lot of innings ... so Preller is building their own killer bullpen to get their SP to the end of the season with a degree of remaining effectiveness. Can't "force" any of the Padres SP into the Verlander / Cole mode of workhorses ... so try to win with then elite bullpen ... worked for the NYY. Don't see an issue with the Padres putting out a SP staff that "should" mirror the 2019 playoff teams at about 5.5 innings per start and then seeing Paddack and Davies at a minimum breaking that 160 inning threshold (maybe to 180+). We already know Lucchesi can ... just not effectively.

More worried about Richards and / or Lamet being able to pitch a full season of games ... given their return from injury. Padres need 5 effective SP to compete from the start to the end of the season and get their wins from top to bottom of the rotation. No clear dominate upper rotation arms to carry weak options at the bottom of the rotation.

Take one of Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Richards out early and wins will be left on the table if the replacement is the "loser" of Lucchesi and Quantrill. Not sure any of the prospects are ready for the start of the season. Leave wins on the table early ... out of contention early.

Last year we had Strahm and Marg. in the rotation. We don't have anyone that weak in this year's rotation. Wasn't Lucchesie our OD starter last year? Our #3 from last year is now our #5. That's a pretty big improvement.

Dont forget Erlin/Perdomo/Mitchell and Nix also started games for us-- only Perdomo maybe has a chance to do so-- our NEXT 5 SP's are waaaayyyyy better than those we had last year

Quote from Ben Davey on February 11, 2020, 4:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2020, 6:55 am

A lot of ways to spin the SP on the playoff teams ... none averaged even 6 innings per start. Washington was the best at 5.8 innings then the norm was around 5.5 innings. The down side outliers were the NYY at an amazing 4.8 and TB who played the "starter game" to just mess up the stats.

A bunch of different approaches with WASH and STL each having 4 SP with over 160 innings and 2 of them over 180 innings ... maybe the more classical approach to SP. However, making the playoffs can work without the classical approach .... MILW had ZERO SP to go 160 innings and the NYY had only 1 go above 160. NYY did it with a killer BP and mixing and matching SP throughout the season.

Looks as though the Padres recognize the venerability of their SP to go deep into games and eat a lot of innings ... so Preller is building their own killer bullpen to get their SP to the end of the season with a degree of remaining effectiveness. Can't "force" any of the Padres SP into the Verlander / Cole mode of workhorses ... so try to win with then elite bullpen ... worked for the NYY. Don't see an issue with the Padres putting out a SP staff that "should" mirror the 2019 playoff teams at about 5.5 innings per start and then seeing Paddack and Davies at a minimum breaking that 160 inning threshold (maybe to 180+). We already know Lucchesi can ... just not effectively.

More worried about Richards and / or Lamet being able to pitch a full season of games ... given their return from injury. Padres need 5 effective SP to compete from the start to the end of the season and get their wins from top to bottom of the rotation. No clear dominate upper rotation arms to carry weak options at the bottom of the rotation.

Take one of Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Richards out early and wins will be left on the table if the replacement is the "loser" of Lucchesi and Quantrill. Not sure any of the prospects are ready for the start of the season. Leave wins on the table early ... out of contention early.

But Fenn, isnt that the entire reason why Preller has such a good and deep bullpen?  Last year we were worried that Lamet would be done after 5 because he struck out 10 and threw 90 pitches.  Well now, if he can go 5, maybe 5.1.  You bring out Stammen for the 6th, Pagan in the 7th, Pom in the 8th and Yates in the 9th.  And that is without even using Munoz or Strahm who had a 3.2 ERA with 10+ K/9 as a reliever.  Or Jose Castillo who might be the best lefty on the team.

If we are losing, then you are right, toss Luchessi or Perdomo into the game for 3 innings, but guessing most games will be close, and with this pen its hard to not like our chances.  Also we have the 3 batter rule this year so you wont see LOOGY.

I actually like what Preller did.  Shorten the game so starters are not facing batters 3rd time through with a really good and deep pen.  Get back end starters like Luchessi that can throw 6-7 IP/start even if they give up 3-4 runs as it will save the pen on those days.

As far as playoffs.  If Lamet continues what he did last year.  I'd have no problem with him starting going 5 and turning over to this pen.  Do what the Dodgers did with Buheler two years ago and have Gore in the pen for playoffs.  It would be tough to beat.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 11, 2020, 5:36 pm

I believe our opening day starter last year, who picked off Bumgarner off of 1st base, was traded.

He only threw 6 shutout innings

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2020, 8:25 pm

Quote from Ben Davey on February 11, 2020, 4:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2020, 6:55 am

A lot of ways to spin the SP on the playoff teams ... none averaged even 6 innings per start. Washington was the best at 5.8 innings then the norm was around 5.5 innings. The down side outliers were the NYY at an amazing 4.8 and TB who played the "starter game" to just mess up the stats.

A bunch of different approaches with WASH and STL each having 4 SP with over 160 innings and 2 of them over 180 innings ... maybe the more classical approach to SP. However, making the playoffs can work without the classical approach .... MILW had ZERO SP to go 160 innings and the NYY had only 1 go above 160. NYY did it with a killer BP and mixing and matching SP throughout the season.

Looks as though the Padres recognize the venerability of their SP to go deep into games and eat a lot of innings ... so Preller is building their own killer bullpen to get their SP to the end of the season with a degree of remaining effectiveness. Can't "force" any of the Padres SP into the Verlander / Cole mode of workhorses ... so try to win with then elite bullpen ... worked for the NYY. Don't see an issue with the Padres putting out a SP staff that "should" mirror the 2019 playoff teams at about 5.5 innings per start and then seeing Paddack and Davies at a minimum breaking that 160 inning threshold (maybe to 180+). We already know Lucchesi can ... just not effectively.

More worried about Richards and / or Lamet being able to pitch a full season of games ... given their return from injury. Padres need 5 effective SP to compete from the start to the end of the season and get their wins from top to bottom of the rotation. No clear dominate upper rotation arms to carry weak options at the bottom of the rotation.

Take one of Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Richards out early and wins will be left on the table if the replacement is the "loser" of Lucchesi and Quantrill. Not sure any of the prospects are ready for the start of the season. Leave wins on the table early ... out of contention early.

But Fenn, isnt that the entire reason why Preller has such a good and deep bullpen?  Last year we were worried that Lamet would be done after 5 because he struck out 10 and threw 90 pitches.  Well now, if he can go 5, maybe 5.1.  You bring out Stammen for the 6th, Pagan in the 7th, Pom in the 8th and Yates in the 9th.  And that is without even using Munoz or Strahm who had a 3.2 ERA with 10+ K/9 as a reliever.  Or Jose Castillo who might be the best lefty on the team.

If we are losing, then you are right, toss Luchessi or Perdomo into the game for 3 innings, but guessing most games will be close, and with this pen its hard to not like our chances.  Also we have the 3 batter rule this year so you wont see LOOGY.

I actually like what Preller did.  Shorten the game so starters are not facing batters 3rd time through with a really good and deep pen.  Get back end starters like Luchessi that can throw 6-7 IP/start even if they give up 3-4 runs as it will save the pen on those days.

As far as playoffs.  If Lamet continues what he did last year.  I'd have no problem with him starting going 5 and turning over to this pen.  Do what the Dodgers did with Buheler two years ago and have Gore in the pen for playoffs.  It would be tough to beat.

Think we are on the same page on this one Preller builds an elite bullpen that can handle early and late / handle R and L ... takes the pressure off the SP to go longer than they need too ... saving some arms.

NYY and MILW proved that approach can work for the Playoffs. So, given the “new” starting alignment with the killer pen ... pitching should be way stronger than last season ... baring injury.

No NEED to have a sting of 180+ inning starters to make the playoffs ... would like it in a few SP to actually give a break now and then to the pen who can wear down too if over used. Should be some effective RP call-ups in AAA if the pen needs some arms to “rest”.

The leading concern of the staff ... is #5 since not sold one either Lucchesi or Quantrill (both 5+ ERA) and that is not great for a team that wants to contend ... and although I like #1-4 ... have to see more to consider them a contending staff which makes the need for a strong #5 so as not to give up potential wins. Not as though this is an offensive juggernaut.

Quote from JasonE135 on February 12, 2020, 12:53 am

Just fyi- Lucchesie had a 4.18 ERA last year and has a 4.14 lifetime, so he is pretty consistent and reliable. Besides that, I expect Quantrill to greatly improved his numbers this year. When he was dominating last year he was awesome if you watched him. I wouldn't trade him for almost anything. I have no concerns about our #5 or #6 starters this year. I am actually excited to see them pitch this year. I expect Quantrill to be greatly improved and word is that Lucchesie will be breaking out a new pitch.

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2020, 7:51 am

The following should not be interpreted as being relevant for 2020 (or probably even 2021) BUT it may be a clue to the future of Tatis.

Per some commentary from Kevin Acee (SDUT) and Darren Smith (usually some good contracts inside the Padres organization), looks as though the Padres will be giving Tatis some reps in CF this spring.

Some of the commentary is suggesting that some in the Padres' front office are concerned about Tatis' body as a long term SS option. We have seen the discussion of his body growing into his father's bulk that will not work at SS but an added commentary was Tatis' propensity to make a lot of diving attempts for balls ... in his case ... in a greater injury risk. Apparently some think he has all it takes to be a great CF ... one of the best in baseball.

I guess if you think in 2022 Arias or Abrams is ready to take over the SS role ... and little in highly rated OF (CF) prospects in the queue ... makes some sense. Then throw in the Padres signing Lindor 🙂

Quote from onlypads on February 12, 2020, 10:13 am

A move to CF may make sense in terms of injury prevention and creating space up the middle for additional talent.

However, at the end of the day, I think he best embodies the teams cache, attitude, skill, impact, and excitement from the SS position.

I would rather see Abrams in CF (who let's not forget has tremendous speed,  Arias/Cronenworth at 2B, Machado at 3B, and Tatis at SS for 2021 and beyond. Obviously that would be an extremely quick call up for Abrams. If he continues to progress and his body develops a bit he may be able to handle it. My approach would require Abrams to transition now.

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2020, 11:29 am

Whatever puts the best team on the field but I do remember his father ... and that is a pretty good roadmap for move off SS (at some point). Exciting yes, but not the best defense SS out there ... could get better ... might not ... bat plays anywhere.

2022 OF: Trammell (L) - Abrams (L) - Tatis ... a ball may never drop for a hit. Of course, need a gold glove caliber SS prospect Arias to hit but that is a minor detail 🙂