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2020 Spring Training Thread

Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2020, 8:59 am
Quote from onlypads on February 7, 2020, 8:27 am

What are people most interested to find out in Spring Training? Who are you most interested in tracking.

 

For me, I'm most interested in seeing if Cronenworth can lay claim to 2B.  I'll also be tracking Gore and Patino closely (like everyone I am sure).

A lot to choose from but will be watching the players for the last few spots in the bullpen. Probably five are locks: Yates; Pomeranz; Stammen; Strahm; and Johnson. After that ... on paper ... can make pro and con cases for the last three so ST may have a major impact on the choices.  Then out of that group ... really interested in Javy Guerra (out of minor league options) who has major upside and little experience. No question would get claimed if DFA'd out of ST.

I think Munoz is a lock ahead of some of those dudes too

What if Joey and Q both pitch well in ST?

I understand your point as it’s the only point against a 6 man.

But we have a different situation than most when the top 3 starters all will be closely monitored for innings.

Plus it’s very possible the difference between our #6 and our #4 is slim...if there even is any.

Last year Paddack started the season in historic fashion.....then had some struggles.

Maybe he doesn’t have those with an extra day rest from the start?

Four man rotations used to be the norm.....now it’s about unheard of.

I still feel if you don’t have a Gerritt Cole AND you have young or “returning from injury” starters it makes some sense.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 8, 2020, 4:39 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2020, 8:59 am
Quote from onlypads on February 7, 2020, 8:27 am

What are people most interested to find out in Spring Training? Who are you most interested in tracking.

 

For me, I'm most interested in seeing if Cronenworth can lay claim to 2B.  I'll also be tracking Gore and Patino closely (like everyone I am sure).

A lot to choose from but will be watching the players for the last few spots in the bullpen. Probably five are locks: Yates; Pomeranz; Stammen; Strahm; and Johnson. After that ... on paper ... can make pro and con cases for the last three so ST may have a major impact on the choices.  Then out of that group ... really interested in Javy Guerra (out of minor league options) who has major upside and little experience. No question would get claimed if DFA'd out of ST.

I think Munoz is a lock ahead of some of those dudes too

Probably "high probability" but the step back from "lock" is based on his 2019 when he really was not used all that much in back to back games ... just 21 for all of the 2020 season ... and maybe better served as the closer in AAA to set him up to take that role for the Padres in 2021 (or after the trade deadline).

This team WON 70 games last year......unless somebody is a high dollar contract or has a last name of Tatis, Paddack or Lamet I don't see ANY LOCKS to make this team which is good....you know what they say........Hungry Dogs Run Faster.

Don't sleep on Eickhoff getting in the SP mix[

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 8, 2020, 4:59 am

What if Joey and Q both pitch well in ST?

I understand your point as it’s the only point against a 6 man.

But we have a different situation than most when the top 3 starters all will be closely monitored for innings.

Plus it’s very possible the difference between our #6 and our #4 is slim...if there even is any.

Last year Paddack started the season in historic fashion.....then had some struggles.

Maybe he doesn’t have those with an extra day rest from the start?

Four man rotations used to be the norm.....now it’s about unheard of.

I still feel if you don’t have a Gerritt Cole AND you have young or “returning from injury” starters it makes some sense.

 

I agree on some teams, like this year's Pads it would make sense, esp with a 26-man roster:  They can simultaneously control EVERYONE's IP (Richards, Lamet), give them additional rest, but also hope that additional rest turns into better performance when they're out there, and maybe they can go another inning vs "typical" SP rest.  A 6-man would also accomodate Gore &/or Patino through end of year without burning them out of IP similar to how Paddack was handled last year.

Key is flexibility.  "Tomorrow's" SP has to be ready to go for an long extra inning game "today", so you prep as if on a 5-man rotation, but just get an extra day of rest & then maybe a short "pressure valve" bullpen?  You also sacrifice the 8th man in the pen, which with the new 3-batter rule seems like way less of a big deal than it would have been even last year.   I do NOT understand keeping your 8th best RP over your 6th SP who may = your 5th (or 4th) SP.  You just have to have at least 2 guys in the pen with options, and some RP's in AAA as depth to "shuttle" out those guys.

This concept could REALLY work if Javy Guerra (as a RP; with no options) AND Cronenworth (as a "SS/util' but emergency RP) were both on the roster.... Cron being the emergency 8TH RP would carry even more value than if he were emergency 9th RP.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 8, 2020, 10:47 am

Don't sleep on Eickhoff getting in the SP mix[

Hope so. I'm not as sanguine as y'all on the SP depth.  I figure two will go down to injury in ST and the last thing I want to see is Gore or Patino in the OD rotation.

Now, the two who go down could be Q and Eickoff just by odds. Not saying TJ or season ending. Pulled hammy covering or neck strain.

Say it's Lamet and Richards who get nicked up and Eickoff sucks. The four and five starters are Quantrill and Bolanos? Davies is the #2? Good luck with that running start to the season.

Just for reference across MLB in 2019 the AVERAGE innings per start was just over 5 innings so if a AVERAGE starter goes a full slate of 32 starts (5 starters) .... expect about 160+ innings.  In 2019 only 33 pitchers when 180 innings or more then another 33 between 160 - 180 innings.

So maybe expecting all the SP on the Padres ratchet up to 180 innings (even 160 innings) is optimistic.

Part is due to that “third time through the line-up” a starters’ production dives. More teams are just telling their starters to go all out early ... don’t worry about saving anything for late innings ... and that is why the Padres have stocked an top shelf bullpen with depth and relievers that can go multiple innings.

In a sense it may be more likely that a 6th starter would not get the other 5 starters to go more innings per start ... just reduce their inning pitched by 25 innings +/-.

Quote from fenn68 on February 8, 2020, 5:06 pm

Just for reference across MLB in 2019 the AVERAGE innings per start was just over 5 innings so if a AVERAGE starter goes a full slate of 32 starts (5 starters) .... expect about 160+ innings.  In 2019 only 33 pitchers when 180 innings or more then another 33 between 160 - 180 innings.

So maybe expecting all the SP on the Padres ratchet up to 180 innings (even 160 innings) is optimistic.

Part is due to that “third time through the line-up” a starters’ production dives. More teams are just telling their starters to go all out early ... don’t worry about saving anything for late innings ... and that is why the Padres have stocked an top shelf bullpen with depth and relievers that can go multiple innings.

In a sense it may be more likely that a 6th starter would not get the other 5 starters to go more innings per start ... just reduce their inning pitched by 25 innings +/-.

FWIW, I'm less concerned with MLB averages and more concerned with playoff team averages. Most squads aren't getting into the dance when their rotation is regularly taxing their bullpen with 4ish innings per night.

A lot of ways to spin the SP on the playoff teams ... none averaged even 6 innings per start. Washington was the best at 5.8 innings then the norm was around 5.5 innings. The down side outliers were the NYY at an amazing 4.8 and TB who played the "starter game" to just mess up the stats.

A bunch of different approaches with WASH and STL each having 4 SP with over 160 innings and 2 of them over 180 innings ... maybe the more classical approach to SP. However, making the playoffs can work without the classical approach .... MILW had ZERO SP to go 160 innings and the NYY had only 1 go above 160. NYY did it with a killer BP and mixing and matching SP throughout the season.

Looks as though the Padres recognize the venerability of their SP to go deep into games and eat a lot of innings ... so Preller is building their own killer bullpen to get their SP to the end of the season with a degree of remaining effectiveness. Can't "force" any of the Padres SP into the Verlander / Cole mode of workhorses ... so try to win with then elite bullpen ... worked for the NYY. Don't see an issue with the Padres putting out a SP staff that "should" mirror the 2019 playoff teams at about 5.5 innings per start and then seeing Paddack and Davies at a minimum breaking that 160 inning threshold (maybe to 180+). We already know Lucchesi can ... just not effectively.

More worried about Richards and / or Lamet being able to pitch a full season of games ... given their return from injury. Padres need 5 effective SP to compete from the start to the end of the season and get their wins from top to bottom of the rotation. No clear dominate upper rotation arms to carry weak options at the bottom of the rotation.

Take one of Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Richards out early and wins will be left on the table if the replacement is the "loser" of Lucchesi and Quantrill. Not sure any of the prospects are ready for the start of the season. Leave wins on the table early ... out of contention early.