Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 8:05 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 8, 2020, 2:47 pm

In the article on MLB.com about the five Padre pitchers most affected by the 60 game season they mention Quantrill and Luchessi.

Showing Luchessi’s numbers the first 2 times through the lineup vs. the third time through.

Wouldn’t it be a good idea in a season like this to piggyback these two?

Let Joey start and go 2 times through the lineup then get him out of there and have a Quantrill got 2-3 innings.

Especially makes sense considering the expanded rosters.

Probably makes too much sense to happen I’m afraid.

 

 

Sort of.  You're definitely right they should limit Lucchesi.  It's one of those stats that doesn't lie.  Kind of like Hosmer vs LHP the last 2 full seasons.  The problem is having it "always" be Q that splits the difference; can't commit (even on a 30-man) 2 guys to 1 game all season long.  But Pads have more "length" in their pen than just about anyone; Pomeranz, Perdomo, Strahm extensive SP experience.  Plus "starters" like Morejon, Baez, & Bolanos.

But I do think it's nuts for teams in 2020 to use a 6-man rotation.  Why would you take 2 starts away from EACH of your #1 - #5 guy to give them to your #6 guy when every game is way more important than normal?

BUT Mr. P, I think a silver lining of all this craziness is that 2021 would be the ideal time to go to a true 6-man rotation.  The reason is:  ALL SP's will be very innings limited this year.  With playoffs, guessing less than 5 guys (could be none) get to 100 IP this season.  How do you turn around next year and ask for 200+ from top 5 SP's?  Especially in Pads' case where you have guys like Gore & Patino who are simply missing their "ramp up" year & have NEVER pitched 100+.  Padres are pretty ideally situated to go this route.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 8:36 am

Don't see an issue with "veterans" going back to a normal workload after the "rest" in 2020. Gore / Patino will be a different issue having not ever hitting a ML workload. Keep in mind that a "normal" workload these days in maybe 160-70 innings ... outliers are at 200 ... and the Padres will still have a solid pen to nurse the starters through.

Not a fan of a 6 man rotation (if you have some good upper rotation arms). Not only adds your worst SP option into the rotation (cutting starts from the better options) it takes an arm out of the pen. Pitchers don't go deep (except for a special few) in part because of workload combined with the "third time through the line-up" decreasing effectiveness. Six SP has the chance to really burn out the pen.

With Richards not likely to return and Lucchesi / Quantrill still works in progress ... not sure the Padres have an high probability beyond Paddack, Lamet, and Davies. If Gore / Patino make the 2021 roster and need their innings limited ... rather have them just piggyback. Then let Lucchesi and Quantrill battle for the 5th slot.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 9:36 am

If Gore / Patino make the 2021 roster and need their innings limited ... rather have them just piggyback

Minors style piggybacking doesn't work in MLB with 26-man roster, 13 P's:  You would still be down to 7 RP to carry the extra SP even though still using 5-man rotation.  Over a season having those 2 P's only available every 5th day would take a toll on the bullpen, even if the pen didn't pitch much on the "piggyback" start days.  Still wind up with same situation as 6 man rotation:  having to rotate up/down your 7th/8th RP a lot.

The 2021 season/situation is really unique.  Pads would be adding potentially 2-3 "upper rotation arms" in Gore, Patino, Morejon... but they're all limited at 100 IP or less max in their careers.   Best 2 SP's Paddack & Lamet max post & pre TJ respectively are:  141 P last yr & 153 IP in 2017.  Even if Garrett Richards looks like his old self & somehow did return, anything close to 200 IP is not realistic.  I rank our SP's by subjective potential & past performance.  The top 6 (Gore, Richards, Paddack, Lamet, Patino, Morejon) are all IP limited.

The reality is, it's the Pads group of #4-5 SP's (7-9 on my list) who don't have IP limitations:  Davies, Lucchesi, Quantrill.   I would be willing to trade 5 starts from Davies for 26 starts for say Morejon, even at a "cost" of 5 starts from each of the others, because I don't think that "cost" is real... they're not all going to be able to make those starts anyway.

I just think in Pads specific situation with a top 5 MLB, top 30 MLB, and fringe top 100 MLB (peak top 50?) SP prospects likely to take on bigger roles in 2022 that it makes more sense to keep a 6th SP ("Morejon") over a 8th RP ("Bednar").

Finally, a team with a true legit 200 IP #1 SP COULD use a 6-man rotation but with the #1 pitching every 5th day (i.e. 1/2/3/4/5/1/6/2/3/4/1/5/6/2/3/1 etc...).  So if Lamet or Paddack breaks out this year, could employ this to max starts from best P, but would still run into IP issues later in year.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 10:04 am

Of course the simpler strategy is to keep Gore / Patino in the minors in 2021. Allow the Padres to control the innings build up for an unrestricted 2022. Maybe, alternately, both see time in the ML and minors in 2021 as part of innings management. Maybe minors to start 2021 (note preserves service time) under careful innings management then ... if performing well ... a mid-season call-up?

IF the Padres plan on contending in 2021 ... not sure building a plan around two great prospects with high POTENTIAL and no track record above A+ and no game work in 2020 is a match.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 2:31 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 10:04 am

Of course the simpler strategy is to keep Gore / Patino in the minors in 2021. Allow the Padres to control the innings build up for an unrestricted 2022. Maybe, alternately, both see time in the ML and minors in 2021 as part of innings management. Maybe minors to start 2021 (note preserves service time) under careful innings management then ... if performing well ... a mid-season call-up?

IF the Padres plan on contending in 2021 ... not sure building a plan around two great prospects with high POTENTIAL and no track record above A+ and no game work in 2020 is a match.

Whoa!  As long as they're not 100% MLB (<1.000 year service time) in 2020; i.e. "burning" a full year of control each, I'm happy.

NO way they keep them down all year this AND next!   Not ideal development curve, but same is true for all P's/prospects.  They are too much a part of the future to keep them down that long.  But they will have to manage their (& others) innings somehow in 2021.   One possible strategy is a 6-man MLB rotation as above...

Quote from hoffy51 on July 21, 2020, 4:37 pm

Does anyone know if the Padres are going to have a Sunday day game salute to the Military uniform? Brown camo?

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2020, 1:30 pm

Not sure that the trade deadline will be that active this year but it may be important to note that the Padres play 37 games BEFORE and only 23 AFTER (not a lot of time to make up ground if behind in the standings).

Would that reduce (even more) the desire to add at the deadline given very limited opportunities to impact the remaining games .... especially if a pitcher?

Would that suggest that any team (but clearly the Padres) have to push to pull the trigger much earlier than the deadline (mid-August)? Does that put more pressure on any team to make the call on being a contender vs. a non-contender in mid-August ... after 30 games?

All the more reason to go all out to start the season and treat every game as an elimination game.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 22, 2020, 3:41 pm

Most projections I have read have the Padres battling it out with the Diamondbacks for a possible wild card slot with the Dodgers running away with the NL West.  On paper, SD has a superior bullpen.  Arizona has a powerful line-up and strong starting pitching.  However, my belief is that our SP is going surprise and their line-up may be a little over-rated.  If you can get the Arizona starters out early, you have a real good chance to win the game.

If SD gets solid performances from the veterans and Profar and Grisham come thru, we have a solid shot.  If not, then I believe we might be looking for at least one more consistent bat more so than a SP at or before the trade deadline.  A lot can happen in this unique season, but let's play the game and see what happens.

Quote from fenn68 on July 22, 2020, 3:55 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on July 22, 2020, 3:41 pm

Most projections I have read have the Padres battling it out with the Diamondbacks for a possible wild card slot with the Dodgers running away with the NL West.  On paper, SD has a superior bullpen.  Arizona has a powerful line-up and strong starting pitching.  However, my belief is that our SP is going surprise and their line-up may be a little over-rated.  If you can get the Arizona starters out early, you have a real good chance to win the game.

If SD gets solid performances from the veterans and Profar and Grisham come thru, we have a solid shot.  If not, then I believe we might be looking for at least one more consistent bat more so than a SP at or before the trade deadline.  A lot can happen in this unique season, but let's play the game and see what happens.

Agree that going to be a real long shot to unseat the LAD and NL West champs ... but in 60 games possible (but not probable).

My worry about the Wild Card slot is not AZ but teams from the other two Divisions. It is about wins and the NL Central with a number of good teams that may cannibalize each other BUT can feast on the very very weak AL Central.

Padres (and AZ) should lose wins vs. LAD ... plus COLO in COLO is no picnic ... then strong teams in HOU, TEX, LAA, and OAK. In 60 games a couple of wins vs losses will make the difference.

So, keep our eyes on the entire league for wild card competitors.