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2020 Season
#251 · June 30, 2020, 11:53 am
Not all that confident that the Aug 31 trade deadline will be that impactful for anyone.
Start with the odds are that most of the teams will seem in striking distance of the playoffs after only one month of play ... limiting the sellers first and then if any team accepts that they are out of contention after one month ... do they have any quality pieces that are performing well. Likely the buyers (if any) want someone who is hot now for the remaining month. Plus, will potential buyers see one month of any player critical enough to pay a high price?
Then there is the money ... sellers may want to dump long term money commitments but in this environment does any team want to take that on? Add that in what might be a large FA class (bigger by highly probably non-tenders this winter) under pressure to sign lower level / shorter deals not committing to a big contract in a trade may be a better way to go. Plus, if a team is looking beyond the last month of 2020 ... "saving" their future commitments and focus on trades next winter ... with a bigger target pool of sellers ... might be more strategic.
Now there may be a number of FA after the season moved .... but for only one month of service will not need a premium prospect to get them.
Padres have to consider that if they just let the current contracts play out they will still be about $120MM next year ... so IF they are willing to go higher than that after what has happened in 2020 and the potential for a 2022 lockout/strike (need a cash cushion) ... an add at the trade deadline better be right for now and the future but very unlikely such a play will be sitting on the market.
Good chance .. for the entire league ... the trade deadline will be a non-event.
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I buy into Preller loading up on prospects is a pure sign of challenging / developing them for accelerated climb up the minors and quicker arrival to MLB ... and some confidence the original 40 man can cover 2020 for two months. IF they choose (need) to make a trade deadline move it will probably a marginal player add ... only costing a marginal return (e.g. Perdomo, Reyes, Wingenter type) and not a top prospect.
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I keep going back to money ... and that likely leading the Padres not to try to resign Yates, Richards, or Profar for next season and not adding new payroll obligations. IF the "prospects" and some of the younger 40 man roster types look good in 2020 (games or taxi squad workouts) ... might see the Padres be more aggressive in payroll reduction (trades this winter of Pham, Davies, Hedges, Stammen, Johnson? ... all with short control anyway).
#252 · June 30, 2020, 12:41 pm
Motto for Aug 31: “neither a buyer nor seller be”
#253 · June 30, 2020, 1:32 pm
I agree that trades this year for a one year(month) rental might be hard to justify....but all trades aren't for players with expiring contracts.
A rebuilding team that is out of contention at the deadline may still want to trade a guy with 2-3 years left of a larger contract.
Guys starting to get expensive or with good trade value on the Royals/Tigers/Orioles/ Giants etc may be primed to move.
A guy like Merrifield who the Royals decided to keep maybe they change their minds this year.
I know if the Royals are interested I would LOVE to have Merrifield at 2b for us the next few years....what an infield that would be.
Dreaming I know...but that's what Padre fans have always had to do.
#254 · July 3, 2020, 1:00 pm
We have all seen seasons when bad teams started hot for 2 months then faded over the rest of the season to miss the playoffs. On the opposite side, good teams some times really struggle for the first 2 months and it takes the next 4 months to capture a playoff slot. So we should expect to see that in 2020.
However, have not seen much on the players who historically are "fast starters" and fade ... or are "slow starters" and get hot in the 2nd half. That might be an interesting analysis (team by team) to guess on a team that may have an advantage in a 60 games season.
Of course, is a player a "slow starter" because of the weather (colder) or just needs reps to get fully in gear. Will starting the season in warm weather make a "slow starter" a "fast starter"? Reverse: does a "fast starter" slump in the second half just due to fatigue or is it warm weather ... should not be impacted by fatigue but if it is hot weather ... problem.
Just another factor that makes 2020 hard to handicap.
#255 · July 3, 2020, 3:33 pm
Another huge unknown factor is the availability of players, particularly star players, based on testing positive for COVID-19. MLB announced 31 players so far but once the test comes back positive, I believe it is a minimum of 14 days off the field. As the season goes on, player availability could potentially make a major impact on a team's success. I'm hoping Padres players have taken the virus seriously and our team, as well as other teams, make it through the season with what we feel is a representative group on the field.
#256 · July 4, 2020, 4:24 am
Tommy Pham is positive 🙁
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/07/tommy-pham-tests-positive-for-covid-19.html
#257 · July 4, 2020, 2:14 pm
David Price “opts out” of 2020 with the LAD. Good for the Padres?
#258 · July 4, 2020, 2:48 pm
David Price has now opted out of the season.
Mile Trout apparently still deciding.
Could you imagine if players like Trout start opting out?
If a 60 game schedule doesn’t warrant an asterisk I’m guessing a Title with significant players not participating would.
I won’t jinx us by talking about a Padre Championship with an asterisk.
#259 · July 5, 2020, 3:50 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 4, 2020, 2:48 pmDavid Price has now opted out of the season.
Mile Trout apparently still deciding.
Could you imagine if players like Trout start opting out?
If a 60 game schedule doesn’t warrant an asterisk I’m guessing a Title with significant players not participating would.
I won’t jinx us by talking about a Padre Championship with an asterisk.
If the Padres can win their first ever World Series, I dont care if it was a 1 game series played by front office execs. I dont think there will be an asterix, but if there is, will any Padre fans not count it?
The one asterisk question I do wonder is if a player hits .400. There are plenty of good players that will hit .400 over a two month span, but will end the season closer to .330. Would us nerds still count it, or would we still say Ted Williams was the last?
#260 · July 5, 2020, 4:50 pm
Good question, Ben. Batting titles and percentages typically sort themselves out by Plate Appearances(PA), i.e., having the minimum of PA to qualify. In a 60 game schedule you are talking about less than 1/2 the usual number of PA's, possibly around 200 - 250, which would make a hitter "eligible". My asterisk would be to go back over the history of the game and see the fewest PA's a player had to take a batting title. If that number is exceeded in 2020, then don't put an asterisk; if not, then an asterisk is wholly appropriate. You could say the same thing about ERA - got to have a minimum number of innings pitched to qualify for the lowest ERA ever that counted in the baseball history books. Probably no other standard hitting or pitching statistics will be threatened because of the very short season to accumulate jaw-dropping numbers.