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2020 Season
#241 · June 26, 2020, 9:31 am
I dont think the idea is to actually get Patino and Gore into games as much as it is get them innings and game experience (even if it is intersquad games) that they wouldnt get. Over a short 60 game season, how many players do we actually think will play, 40? Maybe 45? So if thats the case, you have 15 spots to just use on top prospects to give them experience. Also dont forget the 3 batter minimum for relievers.
Not to mention, the pen right now is 8 or 9 deep. As good as Gore or Patino will be, in 2020 they probably dont make the majors unless it is as a "September callup" / playoff push,
I do wonder how the roster will be constructed given the runner on 2nd rule. If Hedges makes the last out of the 9th (no one would be surprised), he would start off the 10th on 2nd. While anyone would be faster, would it make sense to have someone like CJ Abrams out there who could score from 2nd on a sac fly.
#242 · June 26, 2020, 11:02 am
Maybe that is a factor in how they construct the 4 man bench (DH is in the game) and likely limited PH use .... so a good chance Cordero or even Mejia will be available ... both are quicker.
With the expectation of only 4 or 5 extra inning games in a 60 game season the Padres probably have a decent chance that runner on base is Tatis-Grisham-Machado-Profar-Myers-Pham rather than Hedges (if he is playing) or Hosmer.
Is Billy Hamilton still around? Herb Washington?
#243 · June 26, 2020, 11:17 am
Time for the analytics department .... run a history of games with the DH to determine with position in the batting order has the highest and lowest percentage of making the last out in the 9th inning ... Call Tingler and tell him to bat Hedges in the the slot with the lowest probability. 😳
#244 · June 26, 2020, 11:28 am
Quote from fenn68 on June 26, 2020, 11:02 amMaybe that is a factor in how they construct the 4 man bench (DH is in the game) and likely limited PH use .... so a good chance Cordero or even Mejia will be available ... both are quicker.
With the expectation of only 4 or 5 extra inning games in a 60 game season the Padres probably have a decent chance that runner on base is Tatis-Grisham-Machado-Profar-Myers-Pham rather than Hedges (if he is playing) or Hosmer.
Is Billy Hamilton still around? Herb Washington?
Jarrod Dyson?
#245 · June 26, 2020, 12:13 pm
Something to watch in the coming season and the impact on the Padres’ player stats:
The NL West parks are pretty much 3 “pitchers’ parks” (SD, SF, LAD) and 2 “hitters’ parks” in AZ and COLO. Odd mix of parks that will not be in play for the Padres from all the central and east clubs. Instead, the AL West parks are probably 2 “pitchers’ parks” (SEA, OAK) and 1 “hitters’ park” (HOU), 1 “neutral” (LAA). Texas has a new ballpark so can’t tell but their old park was clearly a hitters’ park ... by long shot.
SEA and OAK are really pitcher friendly and going with LAD and SF plus the home games at PETCO ... pitchers may look pretty good for the Padres if 41 of the 60 are played in pitchers parks and another 3 in a “neutral” park. If pitching is going to be the Padres’ strength (even if by depth) ... good sign. Maybe not such a good sign for the hitters. Then IF the next Texas park is at least neutral ... even better for the pitchers.
Not sure if that has any influence of creating a roster that supports making the pitchers even more effective (i.e. defense) or relying on the pitching and support them with stronger bats that may (or may not) be effective in pitchers’ parks.
Addendum: given the serious conditions with the virus in Houston specifically and Texas / AZ overall (all hitters’ parks) there is a chance MLB pulls games out of .. at least ... Houston and put them in a neutral site in CA with a better pitchers’ profile.
#246 · June 26, 2020, 12:28 pm
ALOT of offense on the AL West squads.
We really need our pitching to be our strength cause I don't see us out slugging the Angels,Astros, A's and Rangers.
#247 · June 26, 2020, 4:25 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on June 26, 2020, 12:28 pmALOT of offense on the AL West squads.
We really need our pitching to be our strength cause I don't see us out slugging the Angels,Astros, A's and Rangers.
IDK if its an out slug as much as its a combo of both. With Yates/Pagan/Pom it becomes a 6 inning game. If the Padres offense can even put up 4 runs a game they should have a winning record.
Saying there will only be 4 extra inning games is still a lot. If the playoffs are not expanded we are looking for 32 or 33 wins to get in. So the difference between 3-1 in those extra inning games and 1-3, might make the difference between playoffs and not.
Besides speed, one of the other things a few podcasts have discussed is the importance of putting the ball in play in extras. I forget the exact number used but with a runner on 2nd and no out, if the next hitter puts the ball in play (no matter what the outcome) the runner scores that inning about 70% of the time. If the first batter strikes out that number goes down to about 30%. With every game being that much more important, does that factor into roster construction?
#248 · June 26, 2020, 7:44 pm
Fortunately it seems to me the Padres are finally recognizing the bat to ball skill value (e.g. Renfroe for Pham) and then drafting of Abrams and Hassell.
So, maybe can debate cause and effect, but the Padres should be more oriented to those needed contact skills.
Could be an issue for Cordero (very high K%) v Naylor, I guess. Hedges slides to backup? However, even though the better bat to ball skills are clearly valuable in those situations .... have to consider the best productivity offensively overall in games since sometimes that lead off double or solo HR wins you games too. Is a balance.
Will be a gradual transition since you have to work with what you have for now. Somewhat limited in options for 2020 ... what to watch for is how the Padres’ minor league system evolves if they really focus on those bat to ball skills v big power / big athlete.
#249 · June 30, 2020, 9:11 am
I was struck by how the Pads have almost their entire (healthy) top 20 prospects in their 60-man pool, and was curious how the other teams with top Farm systems constructed their pools. I looked at: Rays, LAD, Atlanta, Seattle, & Toronto = Baseball America's clear top 6 systems including Pads (were #2 before LAD got Graterol from Twins for Maeda; so I have LAD #2, us #3). MLB.com has Detroit & Miami in top 5 systems, but I don't consider them to be likely deadline buyers even in the short season.
The good news is no other top 6 Farm team loaded their pool with their top 20 to the extent the Padres did; especially the #1 Rays and Toronto. Likely combo of 40-man construction, where their prospects are at developmentally, and philosophy. So the Rays still have the #1 Farm, but they don't have the #1 Farm from the standpoint of making in-season trades. Pads (biased I know) appear to have the deepest pool of tradeable talent during this weird season.
Bad news is: While not as many of top 20 in pool; LAD, Seattle (less likely "buyers"), & especially Atlanta with their entire top 12 (their advanced P heavy system has most resembled ours last 1-2 years) do also have most of their top 20 in their pool. Of course, LAD $$$ better positions them to take on $ in trade then SD with our top 4 under contract guys already = 78 MM in 2021.
Still, knowing Preller, he may have partly built the 60-man pool that way to have as much trade capital as possible heading into a season where many players may be "on sale" in trade from a prospect capital standpoint, as teams will be looking to unload future $$ obligations.
#250 · June 30, 2020, 11:28 am
Quote from Ben Davey on June 26, 2020, 4:25 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on June 26, 2020, 12:28 pmALOT of offense on the AL West squads.
We really need our pitching to be our strength cause I don't see us out slugging the Angels,Astros, A's and Rangers.
IDK if its an out slug as much as its a combo of both. With Yates/Pagan/Pom it becomes a 6 inning game. If the Padres offense can even put up 4 runs a game they should have a winning record.
Saying there will only be 4 extra inning games is still a lot. If the playoffs are not expanded we are looking for 32 or 33 wins to get in. So the difference between 3-1 in those extra inning games and 1-3, might make the difference between playoffs and not.
Besides speed, one of the other things a few podcasts have discussed is the importance of putting the ball in play in extras. I forget the exact number used but with a runner on 2nd and no out, if the next hitter puts the ball in play (no matter what the outcome) the runner scores that inning about 70% of the time. If the first batter strikes out that number goes down to about 30%. With every game being that much more important, does that factor into roster construction?
Anyone have any knowledge of how good of a bunter Abrams is? Just thinking with his speed, if he is a really good bunter/good control with the bat, could see him as a pinch hit specialist to bunt for base hits/sacrifice in the event we start an extra inning with a runner on second who we can’t afford to take out of the game.