Quote from fenn68 on March 24, 2019, 7:34 am

Tough call for Preller/Green on the pitching staff but I would think they go with 13 arms. In part because they play games 19 out of the first 20 days ... the starters (especially this young group) will not be going 7+ innings and they don't want to burn out their better RP in the first month.

Also, since they don't need their 5 starter to start the season ... might choose not to add either Allen or Quantrill (non-roster) for opening day and carry an extra RP to start (9 RP). Then make the call before the #5 spot is due. Padres have their first 7 games at home and the minor league season does not start until a week after the Padres opener. Gives some time to make the final call on the RP out and/or find a home for Mitchell.

Basically, could see the mix of pitchers change between opening day and when they head out for the extended road trip in just less than a week.

I'll guess: Lucchesi - Lauer - Strahm - Paddack .... Yates - Stammen - Warren - Wingenter - Stock - Erlin (L) - Loup (L) - Maton - Mitchell = 13 ..............then for the 5th start add either Quantrill or Allen and make the call on who goes ... gives 4 games for Mitchell to convince the Padres to keep him (and option Maton) or DFA.

Oh year, 4 days for one to get injured ... oblique strain anyone?

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 24, 2019, 10:06 am

Can't stand the idea of 9 RP's even for 4 games!

So my O.D. guess:

Hedges, Mejia, Hosmer, Kinsler, Urias, Machado, Garcia, Pirela, Myers, Margot, Reyes, Renfroe, Cordero = 13 position players

Can't leave Mejia off roster I don't think.  They should max his innings played by inserting him in games where Pads are up or down big in addition to his regular starts.  Renfroe has picked an awful time to have a terrible Spring.  Small sample, but how does he get untracked if not playing?  Power threat off bench always nice, but he's not a good pinch hitter.  Cordero might benefit from time in AAA, but Pads REALLY need the LH bat with Jankowski out.  Pirela likely up/down all year, but showing his value with the bat.  The guy CAN pinch hit.  Expect to see Tatis by either May or June 1st, depending how he starts.  A rotation of Urias/Garcia/Kinsler till then.  If Kinsler stays as hot as he is while leading off might make more sense for Urias to play every day in AAA when Tatis up?

Lucchesi, Paddack, Lauer, Strahm.  Yates, Stammen, Warren, Loup, Erlin, Maton, Wingenter, Mitchell = 12 Pitchers

Tough to leave Stock down, but I think Mitchell has shown them enough not to cut, especially since he can definitely go more than 1 inning.  On other hand, they could DFA him, and if no one claims the 900K salary he's in AAA.  Erling is getting the same role he did so well last year.  Maton & Wingenter have been so good all Spring don't see how either goes down.  While Warren & Loup seem to be "locks" due to salaries, worth noting that I think they each have 1 option left (know Erlin does too).

If no one gets hurt in 4 games, think they keep the 8 man bullpen.  So likely Pirela down when it's time for the 5th SP?

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 24, 2019, 12:07 pm

Have to wonder how much the Padres are considering the 25 man roster composition probability in a couple months in making moves now? It will not take long to settle in at 5 SP / 8 RP (pretty much the ML standard these days) and going with 12 position players. If they see the first 11 as:

OF: Myers - Margot (only real defensive CF) - Reyes (maybe the best bat) - Cordero (only LHH option plus can cover all three OF slots)

INF: Machado - Hosmer - Kinsler - Garcia (LHH) - Urias

C: Hedges - Mejia (or Stewart)

that means in a couple of weeks (months) they can only pick ONE among Renfroe - Pirela - Tatis and all expect that to be Tatis. Injury protection is always a decision factor but sending two veterans Renfroe (27) and Pirela (29) to the minors may not be ideal for anyone. I don't expect that either would change all that much in AAA in a way that would make the a plus factor in 2020.

Would Preller be more amenable to make a sell low on Renfroe just to move on? Preller would probably take anything he could get for Pirela but at least he may be more suited for a AAA option ... maybe.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 24, 2019, 12:37 pm

that means in a couple of weeks (months) they can only pick ONE among Renfroe - Pirela - Tatis and all expect that to be Tatis. Injury protection is always a decision factor but sending two veterans Renfroe (27) and Pirela (29) to the minors may not be ideal for anyone. I don't expect that either would change all that much in AAA in a way that would make the a plus factor in 2020.

Would Preller be more amenable to make a sell low on Renfroe just to move on? Preller would probably take anything he could get for Pirela but at least he may be more suited for a AAA option ... maybe.

A couple of things:  No issue with Pirela as an up/down guy.  He's an MLB bat wrapped in a AAA defender.   Given Kinsler's hot Spring AND sitting at top of lineup, I am not convinced that Urias & Tatis are on Padres "for good, forever" when Tatis comes up... Urias looks more logical to send down?  See what happens in a month.

I could/did not predict Renfroe was going to have a rough ST.  And that can turn around fast.  BUT I could predict that EITHER Renfroe or Reyes was going to lose a lot of trade value at end of ST by being beaten out by the other guy.  If Reyes had a bad spring, as younger guy you send him down to AAA to "work on his defense & play every day".  Obviously that's not what's going on if Renfroe goes down...

I think they may juggle that bullpen @ 7 for a while; there is some depth to do so.  But Renfroe has REALLY hurt himself by not even looking like an offensive upgrade vs a LHP relative to Margot...   But I don't see any point to cutting/trading him for nothing.  Better to hold on for depth & improvement.  ST is a tiny sample.  A week ago Machado & Myers looked terrible too.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 24, 2019, 2:37 pm

Agree that not clear cut Urias will stay up ... then again not clear cut when Tatis will be considered ready to get promoted. Sort of a decision with the developmental staff if AAA time helps more than ML reps .... depends on how the view the individual.

Padres are transitioning from working through a lot of options and locking down on the best if they want to develop the best leading to contention. That should be a concern for Renfroe who at 27 still is a limited corner OF with one plus factor in SLG (MLB has a lot of those). He still has not developed that plate discipline / 2 strike approach allowing (in my mind) both Reyes and Cordero. Just don't see him taking ABs from them. If he is sent to AAA ... he is soon the be bypassed as a corner OF by Naylor whose bat is loved (and only 21).

Never easy choices for management.

Quote from 84padres on March 24, 2019, 5:04 pm

I know these games don't count but 24 runs against ???? looks like it will have to be Quantrill or someone not on the roster yet. I don't think Logan or Quantrill are ready yet but we ned someone.

Quote from Ben Davey on March 24, 2019, 8:27 pm

Part of me thinks Mitchell gets the call for 5th starter spot, but if not, then they will go with Quantril.

Better idea would be to sign Keuchel, problem solved 🙂

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 25, 2019, 8:00 am

Quote from Ben Davey on March 24, 2019, 8:27 pm

Part of me thinks Mitchell gets the call for 5th starter spot, but if not, then they will go with Quantril.

Better idea would be to sign Keuchel, problem solved

The timing of Allen & Quantrill's horrible outings might actually be a blessing in disguise.  Better now than 1st game into the season.  I'm not over-reacting to one nightmare outing, but neither guy has stepped up & claimed the job.  What message are you sending to rest of team to give this spot to Q, A, Mitchell, Margevicius, etc...

Pads need to stop the charade & pay one of their 5 SP's over MLB minimum salary.  Dan Straily just got (edit:) RELEASED for $ reasons by Miami who pays him 1.2 MM, saves 3.8 MM.  He's fine.  2 yr avg:  4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 28 starts.   3- 4 MM for an experienced RH SP to stabilize back of rotation for at least 1st 1/2 of season till someone legitimately earns the spot is well worth it.

Pads couldn't compete with NYY up to 9 MM(!) in incentives to Gio Gonzalez.  But don't lose out on Straily  due to someone else paying him 1 MM or whatever more....  We need him more than anyone else.

Quote from Ben Davey on March 25, 2019, 9:57 am

I dont really see Strailey as much of an upgrade over Allen/Quantril.  Both pitchers I think will be fine in the majors but probably as #4/5 starters which is what Strailey is.  With Morejon, Patino, Gore, Baez, Lawson, and Weathers to come, I would think you want to try out the Allen's and Quantril's to see who can stay, who is trade bait and who can be cut loose.

Also dont forget Lamet is slated to face live hitters in the next week or two.  By the time he rebuilds innings, we are looking at a late June/early July return which could also be a huge boost to the team.

If we are going to sign someone it needs to be a Keuchel (or trade for one) who considerably improves the rotation not just a slightly better than what we have.