Quote from Cptjack on June 26, 2019, 4:35 am

The case for draft busting is insurmountable. It's actually more favorable to draft bust than it was to bust IFA in 2016. The entire process lends itself your agenda with the expectation that you're going over slot and will recoup in the back half. By the time other teams realize you're busting they've already committed to overslot and have to choose whether to concede those pushed into round 11-15 or lose their entire overage accounts by bringing them into 5-10. Then the always available hard signs become not so hard when you're handing out first round money.

You're getting so much more value when a 1/20 ask is only 3m compared to the money we spent on Morejon and Ona

Quote from fenn68 on June 26, 2019, 7:09 am

Draft strategy is somewhat team based. Seems as though the Padres start with a commitment to spend the entire pool allocation and go though to dollar penalty (not draft pick penalty level) to sign their picks. With that as the starting point, the it is how best to array those funds to get the best mix of potential based on their scouting.

Given the odds of selections in the rounds 6-10 have a low probability of ML success even if they draft and sign near slot the "better prospects" going instead for lesser prospects (college SR with no leverage) for way under slot sets up an excess pool. Safe bet that all teams have worked out the deep under slot signings prior to the draft which gives them some flexibility to select those "hard to sign" over slot prospects early in the draft ... net a better (in theory) odds of ML impact.

Could also argue that under slot signs from day 1 - 2 creating a pool for potential signs for post round 10 picks may also also could create better odds of a ML impact player who fell due to sign-ability and the need for more "negotiation". Basically there a lot of "better prospects" (than the later Day 2 picks) who slide to Day 3, so select an array and negotiate with them all with the excess pool money (leveraged up with the $125K base) and maybe get one or more to sign. Might not be critical which one ... all in play may be better. Basically lowers the risk of not signing a Day 2 pick and increases the pool (plus the $125K) to sign one of these kids on Day 3. Basically, this strategy should increase the odds of signing a better prospect (just not sure which one will succumb to the money offered).

Think a few folks have done studies the essentially prove that the odds of making the ML tracks with when the players are picked so after the first few rounds ... all are long shots ... but with good scouting (and luck) a team can get hit on one or two.

Quote from Cptjack on June 26, 2019, 10:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 26, 2019, 7:09 am

Think a few folks have done studies the essentially prove that the odds of making the ML tracks with when the players are picked so after the first few rounds ... all are long shots ... but with good scouting (and luck) a team can get hit on one or two.

Those studies are conducted when the teams are already under adverse conditions. To actually assert (in this modern scouting era) that you could only hit on 1-2 guys after day 1 you would need a team to ignore them.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 1, 2019, 10:25 am

Any word on Fellows and the others unsigned?

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 2, 2019, 12:35 pm

Callis · 1h

14th-rder Bodi Rascon signs with @Padres for $432,500 ($307,500 counts vs bonus pool). Texas HS LHP, 6-foot-5, touches 92 mph with fastball, good shape on curveball. Oklahoma State recruit. @MLBDraft

Quote from fenn68 on July 2, 2019, 12:36 pm

• 

per Jeff sanders:

Can confirm. Sixth-rounder Drake Fellows expected to get done this week as well. Deadline is July 12.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 2, 2019, 2:26 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 2, 2019, 12:35 pm

Callis · 1h

14th-rder Bodi Rascon signs with @Padres for $432,500 ($307,500 counts vs bonus pool). Texas HS LHP, 6-foot-5, touches 92 mph with fastball, good shape on curveball. Oklahoma State recruit. @MLBDraft

That's every last $ of bonus pool $ including the 5% overage assuming Fellows signs at slot.

So for:  Tarver (15th), Alvarez-Lopez (17th), Rivera (22nd) & of course Hampton (23rd) it's 125K or on to college.  Have a chance on Feole (11th) as a college Junior; hard pressed to get > 125K as a Senior sign, but would have his degree...  Surprised if they get anyone else.

Quote from fenn68 on July 2, 2019, 5:28 pm

From my earlier post:

Was reading an article on Feole (#11) ... sounds like a very interesting (in a good way) individual with a lot of interests outside of baseball. Based on my read, could see him just passing up baseball and returning to college to complete his education and set up his future. He may be OK if not selected next draft (or not in a better slot) to achieve his other objectives. Money may be less of an issue in his case.

Might be why a college JR ranked #163 slides to the 11th round. Padres may like him enough to gamble that they could reach an agreement. IF the money is not the main issue ... maybe signing him and allowing him to go back to college to complete his Senior year academically then start his baseball career next summer. On the other hand, he has not signed, so ????

=======

My surprise is that in the 11th round the picks are ones the teams have done a lot of overnight strategizing about and normally are confident they can sign ... was this just a big gamble by SD? did Feole have a change of heart? did some "medicals" become an issue? or did Feole just want some down time to address his other interests before signing?

Quote from fenn68 on July 5, 2019, 10:35 am

Fellows signs for $260K ($29K under slot).

Did a quick and dirty on the Padres remaining money before entering the draft pick penalty phase and maybe about $30K or so. So, likely done with any over slot signings. Looks like the Rascon signing was the finisher.