Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2019, 9:47 am

Take the best player available while prioritizing certain skills.

Padres needs in order:   1) Hit/OBP , 2) Hit/OBP, 3) Hit/OBP....

#($#* everything else

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 5, 2019, 10:00 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2019, 9:30 am

Before anyone says 'pick the best guy available' ... I GET IT!   ...BUT If there was one single exact "category" NOT to pick for me it would be LHP, ESPECIALLY College LHP.  Perennial contending MLB club I believe is slightly different with regards to farm.

That guy would come in to probably Elsinore right in the midst of Morejon/Gore/Weathers not to mention the 4 LHP in the rotation now... it's simply the very last asset the Pads need right now.  I don't care what any coach or GM says, you don't REALLY want a MLB rotation with 4 LHP.  You end up trading this pick (or someone else on Farm); the statistical odds are that this pick decreases in future (trade) value vs. increases.  So if you have a college LHP clearly massively graded ahead of the next best (say position) player, you take the P.  But if you have him slightly ahead of a position player, IMO you take the position player.

A HS LHP on the other hand, would probably follow the same path Weathers is on, which would put him 2-3 levels behind those guys; way better pipeline "fit".  I'm not a fan of HS position players thanks to Matt Bush & Donovan Tate, but in wouldn't mind a HS guy this year to be the stud prospect in the lower levels as the Farm gets increasingly top heavy.

FWIW, one NL front office exec said the 1st round College Pitchers are the Weakest he's seen in 30 years.  Doesn't mean Lodolo isn't worth a high pick, but it's like having a mediocre QB in a terrible year for QB's; going to get over-drafted b/c no other options, and most teams/farms are starved for pitching

While I can somewhat agree it can go both ways.

You don’t want to pass on the next Blake Snell because you already have “too many” LH starters.

”If” they really like the guy I mean.

I am reminded all the time out here about when the Jaguars passed on Ben Rothlesberger because they had drafted Byron Leftwich the year before.

Personally I want offense,offense and more offense until our offense is no longer below average.....let alone bottom 5% like it has been for too long.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2019, 10:01 am

Most of the commentary I have read has basically the Top 4 then separation to the next tier ... not suggesting bad picks but just not viewed as elite (now). That likely gives the Padres a bit of "buyers choice" based on their internal rankings.

I hope their internals yield a quality bat but I guess if they see they have a shot at the #1 college pitching prospect who is head and shoulders above the rest of the college arms and projected better than Lauer / Lucchesi might go that way. The future trade (or DFA) would be Lauer / Lucchesi plus Richards will be gone by the time he is arriving. 2021: Paddack / Strahm/ Gore / Weathers / ???????? (a lot of options but none "locked").

At #6 would not want a HS SP (too much risk) and no one seems to be elite prospect at this point (not in the Gore category). Then again they did take Weathers last year.

IF the Padres' internals align with MLBPipeline's .... a good chance it is a bat.

With the lack of projected college arm depth ... might be interesting how the Padres use their other high picks. Maybe the mine the Lucchesi / Margevicius types in the 4th round or later and gamble on position players in the 2nd - Comp Rd. - 3rd.

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2019, 10:10 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2019, 9:47 am

Take the best player available while prioritizing certain skills.

Padres needs in order:   1) Hit/OBP , 2) Hit/OBP, 3) Hit/OBP....

#($#* everything else

Sort of why I am hoping Bleday drops to them ... hitter first with power. Bishop is there too but Bleday is scouted as the better hitter. At least both are LHH out of college ... so could see ML time sooner than the HS options.

(assume Abrams is gone) and given Preller's fondness of HS athletic CF ... would not be surprised if they don't go with Corbin Carroll ... LHH HS CF. Above average hit skill with well above average speed. Preller is committed to the long run and likes to have the Padres' system mold the prospect ... formula for HS pick. Earlier this winter, Padres were linked to him.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 6, 2019, 10:00 am

Assuming the Padres extend Tatis, Jr. on some type of massive 8-10 year deal...  The composition of the MLB team in Pads situation COULD affect how they draft in the earliest rounds:

Say you have 2 advanced bat (target MLB arrival in 3 yrs) collegiate players rated exactly "equally", but with different skillsets:

1. RH SS Plus Bat & Arm; Above Avg Field, Power, Run
2. LH 1B Plus Power & Bat; Avg Field & Arm; Below Avg Run

PADRES have to go with player 2 here... I would argue you also go with a RH college SP rated equally over the SS.  Would go with the SS over a LH college SP rated equally.  This is because you have MLB elite caliber players at 3B and SS AND each of those guys also projects to elite at the other position, which is extremely rare.

U.S.A. sports & culture in general is SO obsessed with trying to quantify/"rank" things (5 trillion mock NFL drafts) in an orderly list when the reality is that there are groups of players at different "tiers" of ability.  If the LHP is really at a clearly obvious higher tier, you take him, no questions asked.  But it rarely breaks down that simply.

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 6, 2019, 10:51 am

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2019, 10:10 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 5, 2019, 9:47 am

Take the best player available while prioritizing certain skills.

Padres needs in order:   1) Hit/OBP , 2) Hit/OBP, 3) Hit/OBP....

#($#* everything else

Sort of why I am hoping Bleday drops to them ... hitter first with power. Bishop is there too but Bleday is scouted as the better hitter. At least both are LHH out of college ... so could see ML time sooner than the HS options.

(assume Abrams is gone) and given Preller's fondness of HS athletic CF ... would not be surprised if they don't go with Corbin Carroll ... LHH HS CF. Above average hit skill with well above average speed. Preller is committed to the long run and likes to have the Padres' system mold the prospect ... formula for HS pick. Earlier this winter, Padres were linked to him.

FENN,  HS SP's taken high by Pads:  Max Fried, Gore, Weathers look OK to me!   There is way higher injury risk, but seems like less projection risk at the very top.   HS position player projection just really scares me:  likely due to Bush & Tate....

That being said, it's worth pointing out that the Pads Farm system looks VERY different than 2 years ago; Preller & Co. are aggressively placing the young guys at all levels AND the 2 year 300K max bonus limit on International signings has resulted in 90% of the "Consensus" Top 33 prospects at High-A and above; with only a few guys at low-A, and really only SS Jordy Barley & C Alison Quintero remaining at the short season levels as significant "bonus babies" from the huge 2016 International class.

In a nutshell, in 2 years our system has gone from Bottom to Top heavy.

A college player @ #6 could arrive in time to help the majority of the current MLB team contend annually; but would have to get there past the 25-man roster & prospects ahead of him...  Question AJP & scouts need to ask is:  What is the chance this guy can be a significant contributor to the playoff caliber contending 2021-22 Padres?

A high school player @#6 that's a non-issue & he instantly becomes the crest of the the 4th or 5th "wave" of talent; better balances a top heavy system.  Secondary consideration, but food for thought

Quote from fenn68 on May 6, 2019, 3:06 pm

Draft risk was analyzed by BA (as I recall) based on a 20ish year look with evaluation based on ML WAR results. In that study HS pitchers were higher risk than College pitchers and hitters (college or HS). Injury risk to be sure but also harder to project development apparently ... especially once you get past the "elite" top projections (such as Gore and Fried).

In this draft, the top end really does not have that "elite" HS pithing prospect ... at least not worth the #6 pick. Sort of why Lodolo's name keeps popping as as maybe the best pitcher in the mix but College. (note: he does not excite me for the Padres.)

I do agree that unless the player available is really compelling ... a HS pick would potentially be better for the organization.

Looking at MLBPipeline's top 15 .... HS bats are Witt (#2, SS, clearly gone) ... Abrams (#4, SS, likely gone) ... Green (#6,OF, good chance gone) ... then down to Carroll (#14, OF, should be there). Could live with any of them ... organization need hitters.

Keith Law did his first mock draft and actually has Abrams dropping to the Padres (and them selecting him) with the comment that they really like Green (who in his mock got select just ahead of the Padres pick). I think he had Corbin go 8th. Never know on draft day ... with who 1 - 5 select and the real Padre priority order.

Commented on Abrams (a SS who may convert to CF) with a good hit skill and top end speed ... that is a Preller type of guy. Corbin is a quality hitter with top end speed in CF but maybe a better arm than Abrams. Both need to develop some power. Green is a little different ... likely a LF with little speed and a weak arm BUT apparently can really hit with the better power potential (plus a LHH). IF they perform to their potential ... fair estimate that they arrive in the majors in 2023 (3 1/2 years) which would coincide with the end of Myers' contract, Hosmer's opt out ... could need an offensive threat arriving around then.

Quote from ramrodd on May 8, 2019, 2:21 pm

This year there is really  no ace or top of the rotation type pitcher. I agree with Baseball America  saying it is a down year of pitchers college and HS.  There a some projects like a Hunter Barco (Even he went down with a shoulder injury.

 

BA -2019 MLB Draft Stock Watch: It's A Bad Year To Covet Pitching

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-stock-watch-its-a-bad-year-to-covet-pitching/

 

 

Quote from ramrodd on May 8, 2019, 2:31 pm

I think Abrams fall to 6. I think the Padres will take him. He will likely move to CF where he has played before with team USA .

If they go college JJ Bleday. If he gone they may look at Hunter Bishop. Maybe Misner at a major discount.

HS Riley Greene but he is most likely a LF in the majors and Miami is looking at him at 4. Corbin Carroll plus CF with a plus bat concern on power. He could go to the Padres at a discount.