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2018 MLB DRAFT
#21 · May 19, 2018, 7:47 am
Quote from David Nevin on May 19, 2018, 4:39 amDrafting 18 year olds means 4-5 years in the minors.
IMO that means more opportunity for injury.......at least before they contribute in the majors anyway.
"more opportunity for injury" sure but the more impactful risk comes from projecting an 18 year old who is playing against inferior completion in HS and has not developed his arsenal of pitches. With college arms at least the scouts have 3 more years of watching that pitcher develop (or not) on the college's ticket and then make a selection with lower risk .... but clearly not without risk since those college pitchers also still need development normally.
So combine the greater risk of injury and the chance to develop or not in those three years of college clearly makes the HS pitcher selection the riskiest of picks. As I recall Baseball America had a piece a few years ago where they tracked first round picks vs. ultimate success in the ML and HS pitchers were the least successful as a group. Yet, some teams will take the bigger risk for the potential of a higher ceiling ... leads to a debate of getting one superior ML pitcher (and maybe three total failures) vs. using those picks to get 2-4 quality ML players but likely none superior by going with college types or HS hitters. Getting one superior talent sounds good but can a ML organization succeed without getting more volume to fill a 25 man roster? Can't answer that with all the other moving parts ... but that is why, in part, different organizations approach the draft differently.
#22 · May 19, 2018, 9:05 am
Here is a bit of a breakdown
2011 1st round (WAR 10+)
1. (8th overall) Lindor 18.8 WAR, HS
2. (11th) Springer 17,5 WAR, UConn
3. (6th) Rendon 17.4 WAR Rice
4. (1st) Cole, 14.3 WAR UCLA
5. (14th) Fernandez, 14.0 WAR, HS*** (would be #1 if alive)
6. (18th) Gray, 12.1 WAR, Vandy
7. Bradley (USC), Bauer (UCLA) both at 10 WAR
The 2 best in the draft were both HS, but the 1st HS in the draft (Dylan Bundy), the 2nd (Bubba Starling), and even the 3rd (Archie Bradley). Havent had much of an impact (or none for Bubba).
2012 saw nearly all of the top 20 picks go from HS. The 1st HS pitcher taken (Fried) is just now cracking the majors six years later. Quite a few already look like failures, and three HS SS broke out (Correia 1st, Russel 11th, and Seager 18th)
No HS from 2013 has a WAR over 1, but Kris Bryant (2nd), Judge (32nd), and Manea (34th) have all broken out. Padres took Renfroe 13th that year, and sadly his 1.5 career WAR would currently be 4th out of the top 30 picks (only Bryant (2nd), Jon Gray (3rd), and Tim Anderson (17th) have higher WAR).
Point being the draft is a crap shoot. The best players tend to be HS but college picks tend to be safer. Even then their are guys like Mark Appel that still flame out. Preller goes the HS route because he thinks he knows more, but the jury is still out.
#23 · May 19, 2018, 9:22 am
Speaking of Preller's drafts...
2015 draft
Didnt pick until pick 51.
1st pick, Austin Smith, was a HS, struggling in High A
Jacob Nix (Top 30 prospect)
Austin Allen (Top 30 prospect)
Only current MLB player (Phil Maton was round 20)
Of the top 10 picks... 3 have already been released, 3 are already relievers (Smith, Guerrero, and Megill), Allen is the only position player, and Kennedy (4 yr) and Nix (kind of JC) are the only starters who have a shot at making the majors. Wingenter (17th rd from Auburn), Maton (20th rd from 4 yr) will be MLB players.
Outside of Austin Smith no HS draft pick is still with the club
2016 draft
All top 10 round picks are still with the club except for Boomer White
Lauer (1st/25th) and Lucchesi (4th) already in the majors.. both 4 yr. Scholtens (9th from 4 yr) now in Triple-A with Bachar (5th from 4 yr), and Quantril (1st/8th overall) in Double-A. The interesting thing is that Preller took 4 HS in the first 10 rounds (13 picks), 3 of them are top 30 prospects (Potts, Thompson, and Lawson) with only Dallas not on the list and he has been injured. If you ask most scouts they would tell you that Lawson and Thompson have a higher ceiling than any of the college guys (outside of Quantril) but obviously further away and huge chance of failing still.
#24 · May 21, 2018, 11:24 am
I would not agree entirely with the sentiment that the draft is a "crapshoot".....The Padres are just awful at developing players. Whether it's the organizational philosophy, injuries or just plain bad luck, the track record speaks for itself. The Astros drafted Springer in 2011, Correa and McCullers in 2012 at 1 and 41 respectively. Appel was a case of WAY too much mileage on the arm and bombed out, Aiken never signed, then they got Bregman in 2015, and Whitley and Tucker who look like future stars. In any particular draft, you'll probably be fortunate if you get a couple impact big leaguers (predominantly early draftees) but our failure rate is astronomical.
#25 · May 21, 2018, 12:53 pm
Anytime any team in making a selection on projection of a player 3-5 years out is inherently a gamble complete with busts and wins. The key for a successful gambler is the ability to understand how to maximize the betting strategy (when to make the bet .... how much to bet) which comes from scouting and having a plan on where the better values sit. Then with the best strategies failures will still exist but hopefully when the big picture is evaluated they come out with a package of prospects better than the other guy.
Do think in part the Padres have not had that strong scouting depth in the past (especially in the Moorad era) and a criteria for selection that may not have been the most enlightened (Antonelli, Forsythe, Dykstra, Schmidt). Seems like this organization has placed a much greater emphasis on scouting (quantity / quality improved) and a more stable criteria for selections.
Bottom line is that every team will have failures even with the best intentions .... teams just need to be better that their opponents. We will see.
#26 · May 21, 2018, 1:16 pm
Gotta go with Ryan here Fenn.
Whilst we can all agree the draft is a crap shoot, our Padres have been GALACTICALLY rotten in player selection and development.
How many front line everyday players have the Padres drafted, and or developed? Trea Turner appears to be a good player but before him, who? Chase Headley?Khalil Greene( if only for a year or two)? Hell, you'd think just through dumb luck we'd have stumbled on an all star at least once every decade.
Anyway, I'm hoping Preller's guys turn the tide. We DESPERATELY need some home grown talent. It's fun watching Jankowski, Renfroe, and Hedges if for no other reason than we picked them and developed them.
#27 · May 21, 2018, 2:03 pm
So many of us fall victim to the temptations of looking at franchise track records when it comes to drafting and development. Yes, we as fans have experienced a horrifically awful stretch over the last 2-3 decades in that regard. But remember, other than sporting the same MLB Logo, the teams that drafted the likes of Alan Dykstra or Nick Schmidt or Donovan Tate have almost NOTHING to do with the team that drafted Cal Quantril or Joey Lucchesi or Austin Allen. The ownership is different. The management is different. The scouting and player development is different. For all intents and purposes they may as well be entirely different franchises.
Bottom line is do not let the failures of past regimes influence your perception of the current one. Give them some time.
Oh, and the draft is definitely a crap shoot.
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#28 · May 21, 2018, 3:50 pm
That's a fair statement with the ownership changes and scouting changes, as the MLB Draft is unlike any other draft of its kind in terms of sheer volume of players, the most comprehensive minor league system (whereas football has none) and the myriad number of ways a player could ultimately fail to reach the league.
#29 · May 22, 2018, 5:37 am
CBS Mock has us taking HS RHP Carter Stewart.
6'6" 200lbs in High School.
Overhand effortless motion at 92-94 mph.
Reminds me of big Chris Young but throws harder already as a 18 year old.
#30 · May 22, 2018, 8:12 am
Quote from David Nevin on May 22, 2018, 5:37 amCBS Mock has us taking HS RHP Carter Stewart.
6'6" 200lbs in High School.
Overhand effortless motion at 92-94 mph.
Reminds me of big Chris Young but throws harder already as a 18 year old.
Saw that. CBS and picks #1 - #6 all college players giving the Padres the pick of the HS options and on most rankings Stewart is at the top of the HS players in this draft.
From a different perspective, Sporting News just updated their mock draft and had Steward going before the Padres select (that would not be a surprise). Padres then at #7 would take Ethan Hankins (HS) RHP, 6'6" / 200 lbs, and just turning 18 (Padres do like to select young). By most accounts the best FB in the draft sitting mid-90s (with movement) and hitting 98MPH with growth projection above that as Hankins fills out. Decent change. Hankins had a shoulder injury (muscular) that has tempered his spring performance making his a bit more risky for most teams but as we know Preller will take risk for ceiling (see Quantrill, Lawson, Thompson). Before the injury many had Hankins as the best HS player in the draft.