Quote from Brown Boot on May 18, 2018, 10:14 am

 

I put this together over on reddit. Looks like we are prep pitcher all the way and it's most of the buzz is centered around 3 names

https://www.reddit.com/r/PadresFarm/comments/8i7esw/padresfarm_draft_primer/

Quote from fenn68 on May 18, 2018, 10:58 am

Quote from Brown Boot on May 18, 2018, 10:14 am

 

I put this together over on reddit. Looks like we are prep pitcher all the way and it's most of the buzz is centered around 3 names

https://www.reddit.com/r/PadresFarm/comments/8i7esw/padresfarm_draft_primer/

Nice summary, thanks.

With a lot of folks thinking at least 5 of the 6 picks ahead of the Padres being college players, they should have a pretty good pick of the crop on HS talent ... big test for the scouts. Agree that taking their highest ranked HS pitcher fits their profile .... they do like young hard throwers that they can mold within their development process and carry a high ceiling.

Two thoughts the MIGHT impact the pick:

1. IF the first 6 picks are either NOT college heavy (or don't take potentially a college bat they like) ... Padres could look at a college bat as the best player available. Early reports suggested they like Swaggerty (OF) who many think will go before 7 (maybe 4-6 pick). Have not heard them linked to any other top college players.

2. Can't remember where this was suggested but given the "risk" in recent years with HS pitchers taken early and the chance that some of the better HS arms may slide down to late in the 1st round (a much lower bonus potential) ... the Padres may select the HS pitcher from that potential group in the running for #7 that sees the potential for sliding if not picked by the Padres and is willing to sign for under slot. Padres then are positioned for going over slot for their sandwich pick and get a tough sign. Basically if the difference among the 4ish HS pitching options at #7 is not that clear and with the risk associated with HS pitchers ... take the better sign and then get an enhanced supplemental pick ... maybe that gives them two high upside picks.

 

Quote from Brown Boot on May 18, 2018, 11:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on May 18, 2018, 10:58 am

Quote from Brown Boot on May 18, 2018, 10:14 am

 

I put this together over on reddit. Looks like we are prep pitcher all the way and it's most of the buzz is centered around 3 names

https://www.reddit.com/r/PadresFarm/comments/8i7esw/padresfarm_draft_primer/

Nice summary, thanks.

With a lot of folks thinking at least 5 of the 6 picks ahead of the Padres being college players, they should have a pretty good pick of the crop on HS talent ... big test for the scouts. Agree that taking their highest ranked HS pitcher fits their profile .... they do like young hard throwers that they can mold within their development process and carry a high ceiling.

Two thoughts the MIGHT impact the pick:

1. IF the first 6 picks are either NOT college heavy (or don't take potentially a college bat they like) ... Padres could look at a college bat as the best player available. Early reports suggested they like Swaggerty (OF) who many think will go before 7 (maybe 4-6 pick). Have not heard them linked to any other top college players.

2. Can't remember where this was suggested but given the "risk" in recent years with HS pitchers taken early and the chance that some of the better HS arms may slide down to late in the 1st round (a much lower bonus potential) ... the Padres may select the HS pitcher from that potential group in the running for #7 that sees the potential for sliding if not picked by the Padres and is willing to sign for under slot. Padres then are positioned for going over slot for their sandwich pick and get a tough sign. Basically if the difference among the 4ish HS pitching options at #7 is not that clear and with the risk associated with HS pitchers ... take the better sign and then get an enhanced supplemental pick ... maybe that gives them two high upside picks.

 

Can't remember  if I have seen us with Swaggerty or  not , but his profile scares me to death. I'm sick of guys with questionable hit tools. I'd rather them go for Kelenic if a hitter is what they wanted .

 

Do think this year sets up decently for the Padres to sign an under slot guy at 7 , Weathers is who is being talked about in this scenario. He is supposedly one of 2 HS pitchers along with Winn that  could move fast in the system. If you look closely at the sandwich pick guys I listed they have a lot of upside in their profiles. Would be nice to walk away from this Draft with two 50 FV guys

Quote from fenn68 on May 18, 2018, 12:20 pm

Got to admit that I would NOT love a Swaggerty pick ... just don't see the "high upside" component in his game and as an OF might not have a spot going forward.

Do think that a HS arm is the pick but would love the "best player available" at #7 also be a high upside bat. Many of the guesses have college bats going in the first 6: Madrigal (2B); Bart (C); Bohm (3B); and Swaggerty (OF) with India (3B) going soon after #7. If the Padres do end up with a college bat at #7 it is likely one of those ... but virtually no chance Madrigal or Bart slide that far. Hopefully Swaggerty does not so as to tempt the Padres. Bohm might since he may be projected more a 1B/DH type (not a good fielder or runner) and might need the right team for a good fit (does not seem the NL or Padres fit). Although I have seen nothing linking the Padres to 3B Jon India ... his profile seems to be rising as a legit top 10 pick and projected to hit and field and fits a system need ... could he become the "best player available" at #7?

Quote from Brown Boot on May 18, 2018, 1:27 pm

India doesn't strike me as a Preller type, not enough upside. We kind of screwed ourselves out of a safe college bat type when we won too many games at the end of last year.

 

Stewart's mechanics scares  me. I'm in on Liberatore  and Weathers

Quote from fenn68 on May 18, 2018, 3:31 pm

From some of the analysis I have read this draft class is a bit different than the past. "Normally" there are 5 to 7 more elite prospects that clearly standout for the early picks then a drop-off to a somewhat longer run of quality prospects but not quite in the same category.

To some (maybe most),  I guess this draft has only 1 in the "elite" category .... RHP Mize from Auburn .... then the longer run of prospects that are quality but not "elite". Should note that I have read that Mize may be the best but not projected as an ace / #1 SP.

Not all the inspiring but does support a case to drafting the high upside / high risk HS pitcher if the "safe" college pitchers / hitters are not viewed an being something special. At #7 should shoot for a pick that has a chance to be special. Don't get the sense than any of the HS pitchers are thought of in the Hunter Greene / Mackenzie Gore mold but at least young with big FB and size is the foundation of becoming something special ... maybe.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 18, 2018, 6:08 pm

Draft a HS pitcher and go ahead and schedule the TJ surgery.

Get it out of the way early.

I kid(sorta).

 

Quote from Ryan Payne on May 18, 2018, 6:50 pm

If anything, college pitchers have a lot more mileage on the tires, so I would be more worried about the risk of injury/overuse there. However, I really don't think it matters these days with how prevalent Tommy John has become. Just in the last few years, the Angels have had Tropeano, Ramirez, Skaggs, Heaney and now Middleton all going under the knife. It's just become way more ordinary, unfortunately.

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 19, 2018, 4:39 am

Drafting 18 year olds means 4-5 years in the minors.

IMO that means more opportunity for injury.......at least before they contribute in the majors anyway.