Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2020, 9:02 pm

I look at a Tatis guarantee deal first from the 5 control year perspective.

IF the high side view of Tatis will generate arbitration salaries of $55-60MM/5. (Clearly he could under perform and be worth a lot less). So guaranteeing those 5 years is worth something to both sides... Tatis takes less for the guarantee and the Padres pay less by giving the guarantee. So, if they settle on $40-45MM ... Tatis passes on a potential $15MM and the Padres potentially “save” $15MM. Both sides get something out of the guarantee. In that narrow scenario an option year and a buyout year is irrelevant.

Conversley, if the Padres are willing to guarantee the $55-60MM/5 they need something back such as a 6th year (or more) via option at a reasonable price.

Getting to a high side is not that difficult using the likes of Lindor, Bryant, Betts to create a high side estimate. Getting the “probable” outcome ... not so easy and even harder to get agreement between the two sides. Then setting a value on the guarantee around that “probable” is even harder.

I see Robert as getting close to his high side at $50MM/6 years for a guy that has not yet played in the ML ... thus justifying his 2 option years ($20MM in the 1st I think).

Even with giving a couple of option years ... Tatis would still hit FA in his late 20s and have the potential for a big payday. However, if a deal was constructed for a longer duration (say 10 years) ... those FA years are going to cost a lot more for Tatis to give up the FA upside.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 22, 2020, 2:56 am

Quote from JasonE135 on January 21, 2020, 7:29 pm

I have to agree with Fenn. For Tatis 10-$200 million. For Yates 3-$40 million. We would have to do the Tatis deal right now. The more cheap years he plays through, the less incentive he has to sign an extension.

Not “years”.......but year.

Not expecting them to wait 2-3 years to try to extend him.

But this time next year IMO would be wise.

After the “sophomore slump” season and after he shows he can play 150+.

Because Padres.

What can go wrong will go wrong.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 22, 2020, 8:44 am

Atlanta beginning of last season extended Ronald Acuna on a deal that set the new bar for players < 1 yr MLB service time.... very important to note that ATL kept Acuna in Minors till late April his 1st year, so he would have become a Super -2.

Then just 10 days later they did an extremely similarly structured extension for Ozzie Albies.  This was the deal that was nearly unanimously criticized (directed at Albies, and especially his  agent/s) for being WAY too team friendly... but he accepted it.  His 2018 #'s esp OBP dipped from his 2017 debut in August, but his 2019 & career performance clearly VASTLY above his deal.

Stats below show that Tatis' performance in a similar sample to Acuna's 1st season actually outperformed him.  Whether Tatis sticks at SS long term is a fair question, but he's there now, and his next & possibly best position might be 3B; could argue more "value"/fielding chances in INF vs OF.  Tatis highly likely to regress, but even significant drop still in Acuna's range.  I'm dubious Tatis can sustain a .365 range OBP like Acuna 2 years running, but his slug % is remarkable for playing at PETCO and his #'s in a small sample were nearly identical home (.579 slug) & away (.600).

The overriding point is these deals buy out MIN 2 years, LIKELY 3 years, MAX 4 years of player FA.

Using these as a template, Pads need to step up & get a 7-9 year deal done with Tatis.  Could conceivably exceed Acuna's.   There are no sure things in Baseball, but Tatis looks to be about as close as you can get.

Tatis

• 1.000 Year MLB Service Time (5 yrs to FA vs. 6 yrs for Acuna = Super-2)
• Intl Signing bonus: $700,000

2019:    .317  /  .379  /.590  41 XBH (334 AB)

 

Ronald Acuna

• 8 years/$100M (2019-26), plus 2027-28 club options signed extension 4/2/19

OR: 9 yrs/$107 MM OR 10 yrs $124 MM    Min: 2, Likely: 3, Possible: 4 FA years

• 19:$1M, 20:$1M, 21:$5M, 22:$15M, 23:$17M, 24:$17M, 25:$17M, 26:$17M, 27:$17M club option ($10M buyout), 28:$17M club option (no buyout)
• replaced 1 year/$560,000 deal signed 3/19
• largest-ever contract for a player under club control with less than one year of Major League service time
• contract selected by Atlanta 4/25/18
• Intl- Signing bonus:  $100,000

2019:    .280 / .365 / .518  65 XBH         2018:   .293  / .366  /  .552  56 XBH (433 AB)

 

Ozzie Albies

• 7 years/$35M (2019-25), plus 2026-27 club options signed extension 4/11/19

OR:  8 yrs/$38 MM OR 9 yrs $45MM           Min: 2, Likely: 3, Possible: 4 FA years

• 19:$1M, 20:$1M, 21:$3M, 22:$5M, 23:$7M, 24:$7M, 25:$7M, 26:$7M club option ($4M buyout), 27:$7M club option (no buyout)
• replaced 1 year, $575,000 deal signed 3/19

• 1 year/$555,000 (2018)
• contract selected by Atlanta 8/1/17
• Intl – Signing bonus:  $350,000

2019:    .295  /  .352  / .500  75 XBH!     2018:    .261  /  .305  / .452   69 XBH