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What Now?

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With FA really winding down, many rosters like Pads "full", major trade proposals all seemingly known/out there, and P & C reporting in less than a month....  What Now?

I'm torn.  I feel like the Padres 26-man roster, while not perfect, IS pretty nicely calibrated for going into the season given Myers' low present trade value, etc.  But the lineup could REALLY use a high OBP guy hitting #1-2 pushing Tatis/Machado to #3-4, and guys like Hosmer & Myers lower than #4.  The 40-man roster IMO is also less "perfectly" composed, and our top 3  prospects likely to all debut in MLB this year = +1/-1  to roster x 3 or more...  It screams for a 2-3 for 1 quantity for quality  40-man roster trade to improve this year's team.  BUT the specific pieces available to be traded both off "bottom" (27-40) of roster without creating gaping holes on 26-man, along with all or most of our top 5 (top 100 MLB) prospects being off limits (see 2021 Thread), seems to make a significant roster upgrade this way unlikely?

So in the meantime, I assume Pads have turned their attention to trying to extend Yates & Tatis, Jr.  Fernando's deal I'd love to see proposals here & will post mine separately.  Brad said 10/130MM.  Sounds reasonable.  Clearly some of the extensions for guys who haven't even made MLB debut yet like Luis Robert's 6/50 MM MIN up to 8/88 MM MAX deal are establishing a "floor below the floor" for Tatis, Jr who has already clearly established himself as a star player in MLB.

But I'll focus on Yates for now.  I argued for a lower extension total than most BEFORE he agreed to an arb salary.  But now that he has, I feel like Yates has more leverage than Pads.  Padres do hold some cards.  In their favor:  His age in FA - 33 y.o, unlikely to be AS dominant as last year #-wise, Pomeranz there as insurance if he leaves, and they can put the Qualifying Offer on him--which will hurt a guy like Kirby's market value at his age.   But Yates favor is everything else.  He now will have made >10 MM this+ last year, so under no financial pressure.   But the big one is:  If Padres do put the Qualifying Offer on him, he almost certainly just takes it, which hurts Pads ability to improve team elsewhere.  This really affects negotiations with him too; another year like his last 2, and Yates can "bank" on at least 1/18 MM since Pads' alternatives both suck & benefit Kirby (losing him for nothing as true FA or feeling compelled to trade him @ deadline which also makes him a true FA next year).

What do you guys think ends up happening contract-wise with Yates & Tatis, Jr  and with the Roster in general before O.D.?

I am guessing the 26 man roster will come out of what they have now. In part, does not appear there are a lot of "sellers" offering up any needed upgrades at a reasonable price ... not just to the Padres but to anyone. Also, the Padres might need to find out what the actually have going forward ... a massive number of unknowns with the current roster ... we can project (hope) but not a lot of proven ML track record to rely upon. So, maybe the Padres just take a deep breath ... find out their good and bad ... address the next steps mid-season / next winter. Can't force a move if others are not interested.

On Tatis ... think most are under-estimating the contract extension he would command ... especially if they buyout FA years. Remember has one (very successful) year in ... so, the control period is only 2 pre-arb years and 3 arb years. Just buying out those 5 control years could approach $45-50MM (see Lindor / Betts if you think he is that special or just even close). Then add any FA years ... easily > $25MM but likely in the $30MM range. So, a new 10 year deal ... $200MM? Padres could handle that with the right cash flow but might want to wait until after 2020 to be more comfortable with making that commitment. Good odds on Tatis signing an extension at some point ... maybe after the season.

On Yates ... sensing that may be less likely. Yates has to see the other RP (especially closers) in their 30s getting paid very well and getting multiple years and has to believe in himself in 2020 ... so unless the Padres want to pony up a 3 year / $40MM deal ... check out FA. Padres have to see a mid-30s closer ... a role where success ebbs and flows quickly ... and their own arsenal of upside prospects in Castillo, Munoz, and some others that could assume that role in 2021. Not good odds on extending Yates now ... maybe resigning him as a FA after the season if his market does not develop to his liking.

I would still like to see a deal for a player like Haniger.

But it looks like we will have Myers as our RF hoping for an offensive revival.

 

I'm not that interested in extending Yates...unless it's a 1 year deal with a team option.

Which isn't gonna happen.

Of course I'd like to lock up Tatis for....well, forever.

But I would also be OK waiting until he plays a 150 game season.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 21, 2020, 12:28 pm

I'm not that interested in extending Yates...unless it's a 1 year deal with a team option.

Which isn't gonna happen.

Of course I'd like to lock up Tatis for....well, forever.

But I would also be OK waiting until he plays a 150 game season.

 

 

Too soon to be concerned but not too soon to be conservative with regard to Tatis staying healthy. He only played 88 games in 2018 and only 84 games in 2019 (three different injuries in 14 months and one the ever concerning back stress injury). Padres control him for the next 5 years so waiting until next winter (even if it takes more to sign him to an extension) seems a better strategy than going all in.

Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2020, 12:51 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 21, 2020, 12:28 pm

I'm not that interested in extending Yates...unless it's a 1 year deal with a team option.

Which isn't gonna happen.

Of course I'd like to lock up Tatis for....well, forever.

But I would also be OK waiting until he plays a 150 game season.

 

 

Too soon to be concerned but not too soon to be conservative with regard to Tatis staying healthy. He only played 88 games in 2018 and only 84 games in 2019 (three different injuries in 14 months and one the ever concerning back stress injury). Padres control him for the next 5 years so waiting until next winter (even if it takes more to sign him to an extension) seems a better strategy than going all in.

I really disagree on this.  I don't like "buying high" b/c I'm dubious he can sustain that BA & OBP over a full season... but even if he doesn't, the potential cost of waiting could literally be in the 10's of Millions of $$.  The "new" normal is to lock up your uber elite position players EARLY to extremely team friendly deals.

Look at Luis Robert's:  6/50 Guaranteed MIN sounds like a lot, but he would have made a lot of this anyway by going through Arb.  What they gain is team OPTION to control him year by year beyond that for another 2 years; WAYYYY cheaper/ lower $ commitment for those prime years than what his FA contract would be if he just hit FA 6 yrs from now.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 21, 2020, 12:25 pm

I would still like to see a deal for a player like Haniger.

But it looks like we will have Myers as our RF hoping for an offensive revival.

 

The fundamental problem is that even though we can afford Haniger, we're "stuck" with Myers, and they would be competing to play the same spot.  If we don't start Myers, we might as well just release him now & eat $60 MM / 3 yrs, b/c how can he "rebuild value" if he's not playing?

Now if somehow could work a deal including Myers to Seattle... which actually might be possible.  But who are you giving up of our top 5 prospects to get Haniger?

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 21, 2020, 12:28 pm

I'm not that interested in extending Yates...unless it's a 1 year deal with a team option.

Which isn't gonna happen.

Of course I'd like to lock up Tatis for....well, forever.

But I would also be OK waiting until he plays a 150 game season.

 

 

Yeah, you're right on Yates.  But I am beginning to wonder if the Pads would consider the pretty massive 1 year overpay to Yates if he took the Qualifying Offer, and then just "think of it" is being part of his entire time with Pads....

If Yates got 1/18MM next year, his 5 yrs 2017-2021:   0.5 / 1+ / 3+ / 7+ / 18 MM = 5 yrs / < 30 MM... it's < 6 MM AAV  🙂

If they're willing to do it, Pads sort of gain the upper hand.  Even if you just look at it as this year + next it's 2/25 which is in range of the AAV many think he's worth...  really not a bad outcome for either Yates or the Pads.  If someone blows him away with an early offer before he has to commit to the QO (like Will Smith this year), he can take it or see if Pads will match it.  If no early multi-year offer worth it, he just stays with Pads for 2021.

From Pads P.O.V. it's "only" the difference between the 18 MM QO & what he would've gotten in 2021 on a longer term deal... so somewhere between 3-8MM depending where you come in on that argument... but "save" 10's of MM more by forgoing longer control.   Will be interesting to see what happens.  If they don't do an extension by Opening Day, think they play out the season & make decisions end of year.  Has to remain utterly dominant for Pads to consider making the QO

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 21, 2020, 2:10 pm
Quote from fenn68 on January 21, 2020, 12:51 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on January 21, 2020, 12:28 pm

I'm not that interested in extending Yates...unless it's a 1 year deal with a team option.

Which isn't gonna happen.

Of course I'd like to lock up Tatis for....well, forever.

But I would also be OK waiting until he plays a 150 game season.

 

 

Too soon to be concerned but not too soon to be conservative with regard to Tatis staying healthy. He only played 88 games in 2018 and only 84 games in 2019 (three different injuries in 14 months and one the ever concerning back stress injury). Padres control him for the next 5 years so waiting until next winter (even if it takes more to sign him to an extension) seems a better strategy than going all in.

I really disagree on this.  I don't like "buying high" b/c I'm dubious he can sustain that BA & OBP over a full season... but even if he doesn't, the potential cost of waiting could literally be in the 10's of Millions of $$.  The "new" normal is to lock up your uber elite position players to extremely team friendly deals.

Look at Luis Robert's:  6/50 Guaranteed MIN sounds like a lot, but he would have made a lot of this anyway by going through Arb.  What they gain is team OPTION to control him year by year beyond that for another 2 years; WAYYYY cheaper/ lower $ commitment for those prime years than what his FA contract would be if he just hit FA 6 yrs from now.

Unless he is the next Wil Myers or Jedd Gyroko.

Padres would probably do a 5 year / $40-50 MM (somewhere below the high side arb assumptions) ... it is the assumption on reeling in the 5 FA years is the issue on the 10 year contract suggestion. Then are they pricing the  one year option at $25-30MM? The logic on both parties change as more years are added (option or guaranteed).

Tatis has a bit of an advantage ... he has performed well in the ML, and sees himself as a less of a risk that any of the pre-ML prospects ... translate that to a harder current negotiation (and a bigger guarantee). If the Padres only guarantee his 5 control years ... and don't go to the upper range of expectation ... not much incentive for Tatis also to give an option year. Sort of ... for the 5 year guarantee ... he takes a lower 5 year total or gives an option year but not both.

Doubt both sides are evaluating the risk / reward of guaranteeing the next 5 season the same way ... and that impacts the dollars / length ... which in turn determines who says no to the deal.

Don't quite "get" your post... why would the Pads do a contract with the large guarantee without some control of the FA years?    They would just be better off going minimum x 2, then arb x 3... no signing bonus, etc.  Incentive for Tatis is guarantee plus maybe some signing bonus.  Pads would be taking all the risk for no reward beyond what they already have in control years...

If Luis Robert is guaranteed 50 MM over 6 yrs (likely includes a 7th yr buyout) with 0 MLB AB, I don't really see how Pads could come in BELOW this after the season Tatis had in MLB last year?  Robert was a e much more elite prospect coming in, but don't see how that matters much now.

I know there's some MLB guys who did highly debated extensions I think for lower $$ than this, but doubt Tatis, his Dad, & his agent are going to go down that road.

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