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#1131 · December 16, 2019, 12:32 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 16, 2019, 12:00 pmQuote from JasonE135 on December 16, 2019, 11:48 amQuote from BoosterSD on December 16, 2019, 10:56 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on December 16, 2019, 9:18 amTrade 2
LAA sends Marsh (can be replacement for Marte or Pham in 2 years, or if Grisham struggles can be RF with Marte moving to CF) + Bedrossian RP
SDP sends Hedges + Kinsler + Luchessi + Perdomo
The only issue I can see in this trade, is that I think I read somewhere that LAA was not willing to put Marsh in a trade for Kluber.....so are they willing to do this trade with SD. In addition, I think that LAA would want Quantrill over Luchessi. And with LAA just signing Rendon, and trying to win this year, I dont think they will include Bedrossian as well.
I think it would be Hedges, Kinsler, Quantrill, and Perdomo for Marsh.
Do you still do that deal?
Cleveland asked for Marsh and another top 10 prospect from LAA. Obviously the answer was no, which I can understand.
I have to agree with Booster here, except I think we would have to take out Kinsler. There is no way LA is going to take on Kinsler while losing their #2 prospect.
I think Hedges and Quantrill MAY get us Marsh-on his own. There is not enough added value there(in the Angels eyes) to also include Bedrosian for Perdomo. Remember, there were many on here that were willing to leave Perdomo off the 40 man roster a month or two ago. He has very little value.
there were 350+ RP's used (my number may low) in the mlb in 2019-- I bet you Perdomo was top 100-120--- so he has value... not elite top 50 reliever in the game type value -- but yeah value as better than 2/3 of the other relievers-- while some here were keeping him off the 40, Obviously SDP felt a lot different and are whilling to pay him his arb 1 increase $$ salary cause they value him, especially with new 3 batter face minimums and Starter roles for BP arms, where multiple inning guys are gaining more and more value
Agree on Perdomo having greater value than most see since most don’t really appreciate how bad RP depth is across MLB. Consider 30 teams and normally each with 8 RP slots ... minimum total 240 RP but with injuries / shuttle / etc way more appear in ML games.
Out of the “need” only 149 pitched 50+ innings in 2019.
Perdomo was 67th in WAR and 93rd in ERA. Seem to say Perdomo is in the top 1/3rd of ML RP when availability and production are considered.
#1132 · December 16, 2019, 1:02 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 16, 2019, 11:38 amAt this point if we aren't adding Ryu or Kuechel I'd just as soon sign Dickerson and call it an offseason.
Give Dickerson Kinslers roster spot.
Keep trying to move Myers and Hedges but if not successful then lets roll!
Ryu - Yes! Keuchel- Hell NO! Keuchel is a sucker bet for Pads specifically. Basis for this statement is my belief that Lucchesi (or Q) has to go in trade with Myers to create the $$ to sign either guy. If ownership just wants to increase payroll, then great!
Keuchel is 2 time All Star & still elite fielder who won Cy Young 5+ years ago... But look at his last 2 years side by side with Lucchesi who he would almost certainly replace.... Keuchel's ERA is slightly better, which is impressive with 1 yr AL & 1 partial year Atlanta (vs. Petco), but other indicators look similar, WHIP is worse. Lucchesi is > 5 years younger.
Now look at Ryu's last 2 years. Ryu is < 1 year older than Keuchel, but has been vastly superior last 2 years. The AAV "difference" between these 2 SP's is not likely to be much, but the recent performance gulf is LARGE. Bumgarner getting 17 AAV NOT 20 AAV as speculated really "ceilings" Ryu to an extent. Keuchel is harder to peg, but seems likely to get > 10 MM range of: Pineda, Gibson, Porcello. Let's just say Ryu gets 18 MM AAV, Keuchel gets 13 MM AAV.
- Pads have to trade Myers + (logically) young SP to create room for either signing.
- For + 5 MM AAV, Padres can add 5+ WAR SP AND also subtract that same 5+ WAR SP FROM LAD; without any alternative similar quality FA SP remaining on market. "Forces" LAD to either compete for Keuchel with all other interested teams, or to use assets to trade for ???
LAD probably extremely motivated for this not to happen, so likely Pads would have to "overpay" Ryu somehow, either 4th year or AAV (or both). I probably wouldn't advocate for this if Ryu wasn't a LAD SP, but now that market for SP has dried up, it does seem like we could "double whammy" the LAD, get a SP who IS actually significantly > Lucchesi, and still be in the "same boat" with regard to having to trade Myers & a SP.
But in the (more likely) scenario that LAD re-sign Ryu, Padres should NOT sign Keuchel if it means they are subtracting Lucchesi or Q.... spending limited payroll $ on not enough improvement; use the $ to improve in some other way.
#1133 · December 16, 2019, 1:13 pm
Perdomo 2019 IP 72 ERA 4.00
WS Champ Nationals BP
Dolittle 60/4.05
Suero 71.1/4.54
Guerra 53.2/4.86
Rainey 48.1/3.91
Grace 46.1/6,36
That my friends is enough proof of Perdomo's value -- when combined IP/ERA he would have been Nats best overall BP arm in 2019.. No one even pitched as many innings as Perdomo and he would have been their 2nd most efficient (ERA) pitcher behind only Rainey who pitched 40% less innings... Perdomo has more value than most think
#1134 · December 16, 2019, 1:31 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 16, 2019, 1:13 pmPerdomo 2019 IP 72 ERA 4.00
WS Champ Nationals BP
Dolittle 60/4.05
Suero 71.1/4.54
Guerra 53.2/4.86
Rainey 48.1/3.91
Grace 46.1/6,36
That my friends is enough proof of Perdomo's value -- when combined IP/ERA he would have been Nats best overall BP arm in 2019.. No one even pitched as many innings as Perdomo and he would have been their 2nd most efficient (ERA) pitcher behind only Rainey who pitched 40% less innings... Perdomo has more value than most think
I see fenn68 puts Perdomo at 67 in reliever WAR and 93 in ERA. You Henry have put his IP-72 and ERA. So by these measurements, a guy with a 3.29 ERA and 82-IP should be a god right? Far, far, far better than anyone Washington has in their BP. Top 60 in WAR, top 40 in ERA right? Huge value? Do you know who I am talking about?
Craig Stammen-the guy we allowed to walk. The guy who can be signed by anyone at any time for $2 million a year. Yet he is still on the market.
#1135 · December 16, 2019, 1:36 pm
At this point, I favor NOT signing (or trading for) any SP given the players still on the table (in speculation) considering their cost in pay and/or prospects vs. the incremental production we can rely upon over the upside, low cost options of Lucchesi and Quantrill.
Use the money / prospect assets to focus on offensive now or hold for future deployment when a quality asset becomes available (trade deadline, next winter).
#1136 · December 16, 2019, 1:50 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2019, 11:39 amMaybe I'm mis-reading this, but it sure sounds like consensus on these boards is that Pads should have traded for Kluber given the cost ("Margot + Munoz"), but that no one was too thrilled about getting Bumgarner. I don't understand this?!
Bumgarner: 30 y.o. 5 years Control AAV (<) 17 MM (deferred $) Cost to get: Myers + Lucchesi (or Q): for $, QO draft pick
Kluber: 33+ y.o. (1 or) 2 yrs Control Net AAV ~15 MM Cost to get: Margot + Munoz + Myers + Lucchesi (or Q)
Yes, this assumes that Pads "can't" just take payroll to 155 MM... but I think that's a pretty safe assumption. Moot point really, since "cost" to acquire Bumgarner would be nothing if we could really go to 155. It's why I've argued for a FA SP all year: Partly b/c there are (were) a lot of good ones, but also b/c it wasn't very hard to forsee that if Pads were going to sign/trade for ANY player with 8-figure AAV, they would have to trade Myers + ? to clear the $$ to do so with payroll obligations/limitations. So if we Trade for a "big" (8-figure+) SP or any other player, we would actually have to make 2 trades to do it.
1st phase of offseason (complete): Preller decided better bang for buck spreading 20-22 MM NET across 6 guys via FA & Trade (Pomeranz minus Stammen?, Pham minus Renfroe, Davies minus Lauer, Profar & Croneneworth minus Urias, Grisham) than sinking it all into one major FA (SP).
2nd phase of offseason (ongoing): Preller "current" price shops ALL trade in/out possibilities. Adopts "wait & see" posture to see if price falls/rises favorably for any of the possible moves. Oversimplifying slightly, but basically: Any 8-figure AAV trade/FA acquired requires a trade of Myers + ? to clear that $$, but any "only" 7-figure AAV trade/FA acquired might be able to squeeze into payroll without HAVING to trade Myers.
If Clev was willing to take Myers in the deal I think it would have been a no brainer and done.
But they got someone to take ALL of Klubers cost even at the cost of better prospects...their choice.
Obviously they wanted less return for more salary relief and the Padres wanted to give more return and take on less money and/or dump Myers on them.
I don't think it was the Padres that said no...it was Clev.
#1137 · December 16, 2019, 1:51 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2019, 1:36 pmAt this point, I favor NOT signing (or trading for) any SP given the players still on the table (in speculation) considering their cost in pay and/or prospects vs. the incremental production we can rely upon over the upside, low cost options of Lucchesi and Quantrill.
Use the money / prospect assets to focus on offensive now or hold for future deployment when a quality asset becomes available (trade deadline, next winter).
Fair take. Inarguable even an elite SP like Cole would still have 'only' been an "incremental" improvement over Lucchesi.
Only thing I'd point out is ANY position upgrade is technically the same; SOMEONE is getting replaced. Plus in trade (almost only option for position players) vs FA, there is the cost of that future WAR. I feel the Ryu add/subtract from LAD scenario is unique in the remaining market of players, but we're largely in agreement: Don't make an addition unless it is a "difference maker". Really makes my point re Keuchel; it's just not an efficient way to spend 12-13 MM AAV especially if (when) you have to trade Myers to do so
#1138 · December 16, 2019, 1:53 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on December 16, 2019, 1:31 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on December 16, 2019, 1:13 pmPerdomo 2019 IP 72 ERA 4.00
WS Champ Nationals BP
Dolittle 60/4.05
Suero 71.1/4.54
Guerra 53.2/4.86
Rainey 48.1/3.91
Grace 46.1/6,36
That my friends is enough proof of Perdomo's value -- when combined IP/ERA he would have been Nats best overall BP arm in 2019.. No one even pitched as many innings as Perdomo and he would have been their 2nd most efficient (ERA) pitcher behind only Rainey who pitched 40% less innings... Perdomo has more value than most think
I see fenn68 puts Perdomo at 67 in reliever WAR and 93 in ERA. You Henry have put his IP-72 and ERA. So by these measurements, a guy with a 3.29 ERA and 82-IP should be a god right? Far, far, far better than anyone Washington has in their BP. Top 30 in WAR, top 40 in ERA right? Huge value? Do you know who I am talking about?
Craig Stammen-the guy we allowed to walk. The guy who can be signed by anyone at any time for $2 million a year. Yet he is still on the market.
Not sure they "let him walk" and not sure they will not resign him (if he wants). Good chance this is his last contract and coming off a quality season HE and HIS AGENT wanted to test the FA market to get the max payday/play for a contender and are just weighing options. I think the "guess" on his payday is about $10MM/2 years.
I do think Stammen ... even at his age ... would be one of the better set-up / middle innings RP in the league. He stays healthy and can run out there a lot of games saving the bullpen. Not an "end of game" arm (the guys making the big bucks) but still a top 1/3rd RP.
As I recall he was a big Balsley guy ... so?
#1139 · December 16, 2019, 1:56 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 16, 2019, 1:50 pmQuote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2019, 11:39 amMaybe I'm mis-reading this, but it sure sounds like consensus on these boards is that Pads should have traded for Kluber given the cost ("Margot + Munoz"), but that no one was too thrilled about getting Bumgarner. I don't understand this?!
Bumgarner: 30 y.o. 5 years Control AAV (<) 17 MM (deferred $) Cost to get: Myers + Lucchesi (or Q): for $, QO draft pick
Kluber: 33+ y.o. (1 or) 2 yrs Control Net AAV ~15 MM Cost to get: Margot + Munoz + Myers + Lucchesi (or Q)
Yes, this assumes that Pads "can't" just take payroll to 155 MM... but I think that's a pretty safe assumption. Moot point really, since "cost" to acquire Bumgarner would be nothing if we could really go to 155. It's why I've argued for a FA SP all year: Partly b/c there are (were) a lot of good ones, but also b/c it wasn't very hard to forsee that if Pads were going to sign/trade for ANY player with 8-figure AAV, they would have to trade Myers + ? to clear the $$ to do so with payroll obligations/limitations. So if we Trade for a "big" (8-figure+) SP or any other player, we would actually have to make 2 trades to do it.
1st phase of offseason (complete): Preller decided better bang for buck spreading 20-22 MM NET across 6 guys via FA & Trade (Pomeranz minus Stammen?, Pham minus Renfroe, Davies minus Lauer, Profar & Croneneworth minus Urias, Grisham) than sinking it all into one major FA (SP).
2nd phase of offseason (ongoing): Preller "current" price shops ALL trade in/out possibilities. Adopts "wait & see" posture to see if price falls/rises favorably for any of the possible moves. Oversimplifying slightly, but basically: Any 8-figure AAV trade/FA acquired requires a trade of Myers + ? to clear that $$, but any "only" 7-figure AAV trade/FA acquired might be able to squeeze into payroll without HAVING to trade Myers.
If Clev was willing to take Myers in the deal I think it would have been a no brainer and done.
But they got someone to take ALL of Klubers cost even at the cost of better prospects...their choice.
Obviously they wanted less return for more salary relief and the Padres wanted to give more return and take on less money and/or dump Myers on them.
I don't think it was the Padres that said no...it was Clev.
?? Cleveland trying to cut payroll. Myers never "in" talks? Non starter in a trade conversation. We could have traded for Kluber, but would have had to trade Myers + ? to someone else to have the $$/payroll room to do so
#1140 · December 16, 2019, 1:58 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2019, 1:36 pmAt this point, I favor NOT signing (or trading for) any SP given the players still on the table (in speculation) considering their cost in pay and/or prospects vs. the incremental production we can rely upon over the upside, low cost options of Lucchesi and Quantrill.
Use the money / prospect assets to focus on offensive now or hold for future deployment when a quality asset becomes available (trade deadline, next winter).
I wholeheartedly agree. At this point any trade would be a huge cost for little actual value. Ryu may be the only difference making SP left on either the trade or FA markets, and we would have to trade Myers to get him. It’s just not worth it.