Quote from Randy Manese on July 28, 2025, 1:18 pm

I know the Padres have tremendous faith in their scouting department and rightly so given how successful they have been in acquiring useful talent the past 2-3 years, however, my philosophy is that I would rather trade away a player who is going to be a free agent/decline his option and get a prospect who already has a decent track record in the minors than, at most, get a compensation pick.  Would expect us to make qualifying offers to Cease and King but won't do so with Arraez, who probably is already overpaid at 14M per year.  Peralta has been doing a lot better lately, so he actually may exercise his option.  On the other hand, not expected to pay Iglesias more or take up the option on Diaz and Maldonado is retiring.

We likely won't trade Arraez because we need his bat in the current line-up.  Cease can be replaced in a regular turn in the rotation by a healthy King (who I'd offer a multi-year contract much like Padres did with Musgrove and Darvish, but the annual salary is going to be much higher - 4 years at 100K - that would be a fair salary for a converted RP and similar to what Lugo's extension is going to be).  I still think our best trade piece may be Adam and, if you look closely, he's been slowly slipping in effectiveness the last month or so - got a year of control left so should be a target for a contending team.  Would hate to lose Suarez for the stretch run, but he does put a lot of traffic on base for a closer and I'd trade him before he goes into one of his slumps.

So, I'm getting what I can for those for whom I would get very little after the 2025 season and I have faith in both the SP and RP arms in the system to keep us afloat for a playoff spot.  I look for better end of the season performances from our LH batters - Merrill, Cronenworth and Sheets - and hope the top of the line-up (plus Bogaerts) plays to the back of their baseball cards.  Given that scenario, Padres get into the playoffs but with a little bit of luck and a lot a timely hitting, gritty pitching and our typical excellent defensive prowess.  Don't know if we'll add another impact bat, but that might not be possible given the lack of trading assets Preller has at his disposal - remember we tend to value our own prospects much more than other teams do, so don't be surprised if Preller is unable to pull off an impact deal - maybe just a little more depth or even give Perlaza a chance.

Quote from WindsorUK on July 28, 2025, 1:32 pm

That is the most sensible path, Randy. Not sure if AJ could be described as sensible though🙄

Let's see what the next few days brings.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 28, 2025, 1:39 pm

I agree with the thought of trading Cease & Suarez so we get something for them more than a Comp pick in the 4th round.

But,we have to get a player(s) that help us this season....so that's hard to do considering only a contender would trade for either of them.

This is why Bos makes the most sense.

They need pitching AND they have 4 guys in the OF right now.Don't know what it would take but I'd be fine with any one of their four guys.

Obv would cost more than 2 months of Cease or Suarez....but we have guys of value in the system.

They all have multiple years of control.....but considering we have "zero" OF prospects expected to be ready in the next 2-3 years it's the one trade I'd be OK with it hurting some prospect wise...for Rafaela.Abreu or Duran

Obv a long shot....but who knows with AJ

Cease/Salas/Nett/Fountain?

Not enough?

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 28, 2025, 3:09 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 28, 2025, 1:39 pm

I agree with the thought of trading Cease & Suarez so we get something for them more than a Comp pick in the 4th round.

But,we have to get a player(s) that help us this season....so that's hard to do considering only a contender would trade for either of them.

This is why Bos makes the most sense.

They need pitching AND they have 4 guys in the OF right now.Don't know what it would take but I'd be fine with any one of their four guys.

Obv would cost more than 2 months of Cease or Suarez....but we have guys of value in the system.

They all have multiple years of control.....but considering we have "zero" OF prospects expected to be ready in the next 2-3 years it's the one trade I'd be OK with it hurting some prospect wise...for Rafaela.Abreu or Duran

Obv a long shot....but who knows with AJ

Cease/Salas/Nett/Fountain?

Not enough?

 

 

 

One current hang up on a deal with Boston ... Mayer (2B) went on the IL (wrist) and they chose to move Rafaela from CF to 2B and Duran to CF. Abreu is starting in RF ... Anthony starting in LF. Given that unsettled situation, might be hard to land any of the those options.

Given BOST is now and should be a wild card / NL East contender for the next few years with a good offense ... guess what would appeal them most is ML and near-ML ready pitching that has years of control. So, Cease may be the immediate boost but he would have to be backed by someone like Nett (now Pipeline's #3 Padre prospect) and probably one of the better near term RP/SP options.

I guess they would take a Salas or Fountain (or anyone else in A ball) but not as the key to getting a deal done ... more icing on the cake.

Quote from fenn68 on July 29, 2025, 3:57 am

Rumors on the Padres have gone somewhat silent ... with a little over two days remaining. Does not mean that Preller is not working (or has worked) the trade market but might suggest that Preller has done the heavy lifting on working potential trades ... set his limits ... and is waiting for the other teams to move on their demands.

Some "bubble teams" look to be out of playoff contention (at least in my view) by THURS ... the next two games may seal that for some teams ... so for buyers getting those additional teams in play for deals may lead to waiting for the last minute on deals. More trade targets emerge ... fewer buyers competing ... so bigger supply / lower demand should lead to paying less for an upgrade.

That should be a good scenario for Preller.

---

Side ... based on lack of usage (and lack of productivity) ... it is clear that the players that will be dropped from the roster are Brooks and Wade. Both have been been clearly supplanted by Johnson and Iglesias in the pecking order.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 29, 2025, 5:18 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 28, 2025, 3:09 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 28, 2025, 1:39 pm

I agree with the thought of trading Cease & Suarez so we get something for them more than a Comp pick in the 4th round.

But,we have to get a player(s) that help us this season....so that's hard to do considering only a contender would trade for either of them.

This is why Bos makes the most sense.

They need pitching AND they have 4 guys in the OF right now.Don't know what it would take but I'd be fine with any one of their four guys.

Obv would cost more than 2 months of Cease or Suarez....but we have guys of value in the system.

They all have multiple years of control.....but considering we have "zero" OF prospects expected to be ready in the next 2-3 years it's the one trade I'd be OK with it hurting some prospect wise...for Rafaela.Abreu or Duran

Obv a long shot....but who knows with AJ

Cease/Salas/Nett/Fountain?

Not enough?

 

 

 

One current hang up on a deal with Boston ... Mayer (2B) went on the IL (wrist) and they chose to move Rafaela from CF to 2B and Duran to CF. Abreu is starting in RF ... Anthony starting in LF. Given that unsettled situation, might be hard to land any of the those options.

Given BOST is now and should be a wild card / NL East contender for the next few years with a good offense ... guess what would appeal them most is ML and near-ML ready pitching that has years of control. So, Cease may be the immediate boost but he would have to be backed by someone like Nett (now Pipeline's #3 Padre prospect) and probably one of the better near term RP/SP options.

I guess they would take a Salas or Fountain (or anyone else in A ball) but not as the key to getting a deal done ... more icing on the cake.

They also have Yoshida...and their #2 prospect Jhostynxon Garcia ready next season .

Rafaela,Duran,Anthony,Yoshida,Abreu and Garcia on the way.

Even with Rafaela moving to 2nd OF is still their depth.

Hell,give them a bag of balls for Refsnyder.....he's WAY better than what Wade/Brooks & likely Johnson

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 29, 2025, 6:25 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 29, 2025, 5:18 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 28, 2025, 3:09 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 28, 2025, 1:39 pm

I agree with the thought of trading Cease & Suarez so we get something for them more than a Comp pick in the 4th round.

But,we have to get a player(s) that help us this season....so that's hard to do considering only a contender would trade for either of them.

This is why Bos makes the most sense.

They need pitching AND they have 4 guys in the OF right now.Don't know what it would take but I'd be fine with any one of their four guys.

Obv would cost more than 2 months of Cease or Suarez....but we have guys of value in the system.

They all have multiple years of control.....but considering we have "zero" OF prospects expected to be ready in the next 2-3 years it's the one trade I'd be OK with it hurting some prospect wise...for Rafaela.Abreu or Duran

Obv a long shot....but who knows with AJ

Cease/Salas/Nett/Fountain?

Not enough?

 

 

 

One current hang up on a deal with Boston ... Mayer (2B) went on the IL (wrist) and they chose to move Rafaela from CF to 2B and Duran to CF. Abreu is starting in RF ... Anthony starting in LF. Given that unsettled situation, might be hard to land any of the those options.

Given BOST is now and should be a wild card / NL East contender for the next few years with a good offense ... guess what would appeal them most is ML and near-ML ready pitching that has years of control. So, Cease may be the immediate boost but he would have to be backed by someone like Nett (now Pipeline's #3 Padre prospect) and probably one of the better near term RP/SP options.

I guess they would take a Salas or Fountain (or anyone else in A ball) but not as the key to getting a deal done ... more icing on the cake.

They also have Yoshida...and their #2 prospect Jhostynxon Garcia ready next season .

Rafaela,Duran,Anthony,Yoshida,Abreu and Garcia on the way.

Even with Rafaela moving to 2nd OF is still their depth.

Hell,give them a bag of balls for Refsnyder.....he's WAY better than what Wade/Brooks & likely Johnson

 

Given the alternatives are Brooks and Wade ... dealing for Garcia (league minimum, 6 year control) would not only benefit the future and payroll ... he might just help in 2025 as a RHH.

Yoshida .. at this point is their starting DH (after missing most of the season due to injury)  and, frankly, that is about all he can handle ... but think the Red Sox would love to give away Yoshida to any team that would take the rest of his contract ($18MM for two more years). Have not heard of any teams interested in doing that. However, with both Casas and Meyer out they may still want him in the short run ... different calculus in the off season. Padres really can't handle his contract for a DH only.

For the Padres and considering the Red Sox in also in a Wild Card slot ... Garcia may be the player easiest to pry away without damaging Boston's line-up and still help the Padres potentially now. Don't forget this does not have to be Preller's only move to boost the offense and getting a longer term Garcia could make it more feasible for him to then go for a rental for a more certain upgrade in 2025.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 29, 2025, 8:34 am

Apparently the dodgers are in on Kwan. That can’t happen. He’ll be become an instant Hall of Famer at the top of that lineup.

It will just happen

Quote from fenn68 on July 29, 2025, 8:52 am

If pitching is the SD strong point to deal with another contender ... looked at which contenders are having trouble with pitching in July (want the near term  view). Two stand out:

1. NYY are sitting #29 in RP (6.51 ERA) and #27 in SP (5.64 ERA) ... that is really ugly for any team and SHOULD make the eager to deal ... since they seem right now in a solid playoff position unless pitching sinks them the rest of the way.
2. DET has hit the skids in July but still in a strong playoff position. #27 in RP (6.27 ERA) ... better in SP a #18 (4.33 ERA) but mainly the Skubal effect.

Not sure who they have to deal (or want to deal) that would help the Padres immediately BUT if Preller does the sell a high salary pitcher for prospects then uses that savings to buy a high priced hitter ... that could work. In the past Preller has been able to work those 3 team deals.

---

Want an off the wall thought ... Cease ($14MM rental) to the NYY for Goldschmidt ($12MM rental). Goldschmidt is part time with the NYY and may get less time when Judge returns. Goldschmidt is that RHH bat who is still hitting "above average" and could serve as that 9th hitter ... maybe some 1B ... DH platoon with the slumping Sheets?

NYY may be needy enough to eat some of Goldschmidt's contract too and/or throw in a prospect given that SP is harder to come by (and generally more expensive).

Could be one of a needed two adds for offensive upgrade.