Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2025, 7:21 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 24, 2025, 6:57 am

Saw on MLBTR that SD and PHI both have shown interest in Kwan, LFer from CLE. While he does not have a lot of power, he is a good BA with a nice OBP, and I would imagine that he would become our leadoff hitter.

Additionally he can steal some bases and is controlled via arb through 2027. Only making $4.18M this season. A cheaper/better fit version of Arraez.

 

Preller gets lined to everyone who is still has a heartbeat.

Cleveland is one game in the loss column out of a Wild Card slot ... normally are in a worse financial position than SD ... has a terrible offense and needs hitters (low cost hitters likely controlled for years) to push for the playoffs.

Even if Cleveland was willing to deal Kwan ... what does SD (or for that matter PHIL) have that would interest them now? That may change in the off-season but trading Kwan now without getting current upgrades seems unlikely.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 24, 2025, 12:12 pm

Padres have had several deals with Miami and Tampa Bay in the past so rumors regarding those teams may hold more weight.  Baltimore and Atlanta are two other teams who we might match up with given our assets to trade and their needs.  Don't see us getting Duran or Kwan or hopefully, not Ozuna.  Preller will be creative and I'll hate to see some of the better young prospects go, but the window for winning teams can close very quickly.  Replacing Cease in the rotation with Morton for the rest of the season is not a bad idea, in my opinion.  The clock is winding down!

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2025, 1:27 pm

Always hard to tell with Preller (the Padres) but consensus is that the Padres will not increase the 2025 payroll ... NET after any trades. I will suggest they will want to drop back under the CBT penalty threshold in 2026 to avoid 2nd year penalties (they are current over the 2nd tier).

Did a quick and dirty estimate of the starting point in 2026 assuming all the FA depart, opt outs exercised, options declined on the Padres side, buyouts end or are added, arbitration estimates, and built in contract increases / decreases ... the AAV for CBT would drop to about $35MM UNDER the CBT threshold and the CASH payroll would drop $32MM to about $180MM.

Keep in mind if all the FA depart and the opt outs occur ... that makes a lot of holes to fill ... probably at a max of $30MM to stay under CBT while maintaining the current CASH level (which seems to be a max).

That may color Preller's strategy on 2025 adds ... basically try not to pick up a large salary going forward and try to avoid dealing ML ready assets that may be needed to fill the FA departures. That also settle his thinking on not re-signing any of the FA who will require larger / longer term deals. Threading the eye of a needle.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2025, 1:37 pm

I'm not a fan of Morton and his 5.50 era.

Never have been a fan....

The Padres,in the next two weeks,can single handedly turn the Cardinals from buyers into sellers.

We'll see

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2025, 2:04 am

Just to consider ... if the Padres don't trade Cease, Suarez, King, or Arraez ... give them QO ... the Comp Pick for each would be after the 4th round since the Padres have exceeded the Luxury Tax threshold.

That by itself is not a reason to trade them if they will help the team (more than the alternatives) to the playoffs. However, the quality of a return if traded does not have to be that robust to eclipse a draft pick after the 4th round .. while also saving some cash in 2025 and 2026 by avoiding having to spend on the draft pick.

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2025, 2:26 am

Is Darvish's poor performance (4 poor starts since his return) coupled with King not looking to return for weeks (plus don't know about his performance on return) make it more likely they don't trade Cease? or trade Cease and trade for a replacement SP?

Hard to see an August rotation of Pivetta - Vasquez - Kolek - Bergert - Darvish (as he is currently performing) with just Waldron - Hart in the wings with any ML experience. Might be hard to stay in the playoff race. Worse IF King and Darvish don't return to form for the playoffs (if the Padres do make them) ... that SP group will not hold up against legit playoff teams especially when this offense is not scoring runs.

Preller has to be thinking around that same scenario ... how to balance upgrading the team (they still are in the 3rd WC slot) to make the playoffs while recognizing they may be in a weak position going forward to maintain that playoff position and it may take more than the upgrades he can pull off to continue to the playoffs. Given the weak farm system lacking near term prospects ... Preller would have to really move some major prospects to get multiple impact 2025 ML talent.

Current the odds for the playoffs are set around 50/50 (tough opponents in Aug plus a poor record against winning teams this season) ... with an poor Darvish and no King should those odds drop below 50/50? How much do you bet (in terms of prospects) as the odds start going against you?

One week is not that long to get a clear reading but know that three teams are in close pursuit of that last WC slot (albeit they also have flaws).

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2025, 6:49 am

Padres have a very bad record vs teams with a winning record ... 22-33. So,

Before the trade deadline they play STL (3 games, 53-51) and NYM (3 games, 59-44) ... that could make a big difference as Preller waits to the last moment to make (or not make) moves.

Also consider August ... LAD (6 games, 60-43), Boston (3 games, 55-49), Seattle (3 games, 55-48), SF (7 games, 54-49), STL (3 games, 53-51) ... plus two teams that are not rollovers ... MINN (3 games, 49-53) and AZ (3 games, 50-53).

Never want to concede when in a playoff slot but after 4 months of losing to winning teams and building a good recored against losing teams ... still no consistent offense (near bottom in MLB for runs scored) ... SP issues with King and Darvish ... and entering a 5 week period against winning / strong teams ... can the Padres justify gambling big by trading the future good prospects for a short run stop gap upgrade that likely would not yield enough to offset the current issues.

Maybe more a shuffling decks moving veterans (or low grade prospects) for other veterans that fill a greater short run need ... still looks as though trying to win. Of course if they lose the next six ... drop out of a Wild Card slot ... still struggle hitting and SP starts to decline ... I guess Preller COULD (but not likely) go into sell mode and target upgrades for 2026.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 25, 2025, 7:20 am

The good news is September looks to be a pretty easy schedule.

We had the 4th easiest schedule the rest of the way at the break....so with August being tough....September is the opposite.

Just need to stay in,or close to,the 3rd WC spot till the end of August and we should be fine.

Just avoid the 6 game losing streak or the 2-10 stretch.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 25, 2025, 7:21 am

No matter what happens on the field the next two weeks I don't see any way Preller concedes 2025 and becomes a seller.